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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
I've been saying for over a year that they shouldn't just give the FSD Beta to any Tom, Dick or Harry who pushes the button. I think they'd have a more experienced pool of testers if they gave it to those with 10,000 miles or even 100,000 miles of Tesla ownership. I've seen people who don't even have 100 miles on the odometer who are complaining they didn't get the FSD beta.
There is a >0% chance of that happening.maybe his maybe this time means even earlier?
They are probably getting inundated with bug-reports from the new testers - just watch the videos. The OG beta group matured in their reporting over time and now Tesla has introduced a new pool of testers. I suspect they'll let the bug reports reach a steady state before they'll allow more novices to create more noise in the data. I fear this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into the beta.
I'm waiting for a tweet from Elon that goes something like "We're getting tons of useful data from the expanded beta pool. Have enough for now. Maybe will expand pool with v11 which will be
"
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That makes zero sense. I've seen a lot of rollouts - and never was "steady bug rate" a criteria.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I definitely agree with your basic idea, but the numbers probably should be chosen less arbitrarily.
1000 users each with a 5% chance of an issue in a given timeframe:
Chance of at least one issue in that given time frame? P(1 or more issues) = 1-P(no issues) = 1- 0.95^1000 ~= 1; P(no issues) = 5.29 * 10^-23 (~zero).
10000 users with a 1% chance: P(no issues) = 0.99^10000 = 2.25 * 10^-44 (zero)
Basically all these drivers are far too unsafe - 1% and 5% are really high chances of failure!
Realistically, as you said, for very small levels of chance of problem (which is what we have to hope for), basically 10x the number of testers means that those testers need to be 10x safer.
So for 1000 users with 0.1% chance of a problem (1 in 1000): P(no issues) = 0.999^1000 = 36.770% (So 63.2% chance of at least one problem).
And using the same math, 10k users would need 0.01% chance of a problem to end up at about the same 63.2% chance of a problem. (37.786% chance of success) (Approximately, as you can see, but the approximation is very good for these numbers.)
Hence, the march of 9s...
Anyway, happy for corrections to the math if I have made any mistakes here.
Agreed, each order of magnitude of increase in testers means the testers have to be an order of magnitude safer to maintain the same overall chance of zero issues.
1000 users each with a 5% chance of an issue in a given timeframe:
Chance of at least one issue in that given time frame? P(1 or more issues) = 1-P(no issues) = 1- 0.95^1000 ~= 1; P(no issues) = 5.29 * 10^-23 (~zero).
10000 users with a 1% chance: P(no issues) = 0.99^10000 = 2.25 * 10^-44 (zero)
Basically all these drivers are far too unsafe - 1% and 5% are really high chances of failure!
Realistically, as you said, for very small levels of chance of problem (which is what we have to hope for), basically 10x the number of testers means that those testers need to be 10x safer.
So for 1000 users with 0.1% chance of a problem (1 in 1000): P(no issues) = 0.999^1000 = 36.770% (So 63.2% chance of at least one problem).
And using the same math, 10k users would need 0.01% chance of a problem to end up at about the same 63.2% chance of a problem. (37.786% chance of success) (Approximately, as you can see, but the approximation is very good for these numbers.)
Hence, the march of 9s...
Anyway, happy for corrections to the math if I have made any mistakes here.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Could not agree more!!! Tesla #5 and we’ll over 200,000 miles in Teslas since AP1. 2,300+ miles since the Beta Button with a 99% and no beta for me. 2021 LR Refresh S.I've been saying for over a year that they shouldn't just give the FSD Beta to any Tom, Dick or Harry who pushes the button. I think they'd have a more experienced pool of testers if they gave it to those with 10,000 miles or even 100,000 miles of Tesla ownership. I've seen people who don't even have 100 miles on the odometer who are complaining they didn't get the FSD beta.
Some of us that have grown up with AP1 / 2 / 2.5 / 3 are pretty competent and aware of what to expect before it even happens.
KArnold
Active Member
But only those that are non plaid, non LR, or originally had AP 2.5 or AP 3.0 from the factory. No AP 2.0's even if later upgraded to 3.0.
In other words, not many.
gcsutton
Member
DittoThere is a >0% chance of that happening.
I fear this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into the beta.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
But what about all the perfect 100 score yokers you diligently and silently excluded last round, Elon?!
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Drrobmiller
Member
Whoa...I have 98 but a 800 mile round trip scheduled next week
only major dink is foward collision warning around 1 week ago now down to 2.2 percent
think I have a shot?
only major dink is foward collision warning around 1 week ago now down to 2.2 percent
think I have a shot?
As long as you do a two button reset if any FCW happens.
That's the only unfixable thing on a long journey.
gcsutton
Member
Those miles will help. Particularly if you find somebody to follow at a good speed about 2 sec back.
gcsutton
Member
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
This will certainly be interesting. 10.3 drivers will certainly at least double, I would guess. It sounds like there are a boatload of 99/100s out there. Must mean higher confidence that the beta won't get you into a wreck.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
Drrobmiller
Member
I saw that video...very uncool...ripped 2 wheel rims up...a lot of leaves and at night...but still...
Drrobmiller
Member
So here’s my score
My big dink was the phantom fcw on sept 26
The percentage was 28 percent
My average miles over the last 16 days has been about 425 miles of driving
My fcw is now 2.2 percent
Between now and Friday night I have 600 miles of driving planned
My guess is , and help me out guys, with no major dinks especially fcw I should make it to 99 percent?
Thanks
Try this spreadsheet. Should tell you the miles you need to get the score you want.
Tesla Safety Score - Tracking & Planning v10
Safety Score This is set to read only. To make your own sheet go to the file menu, 'Make a Copy' and open in Google Sheets (not in Excel). No share requests please. There are hidden columns with some of the working formulas so be careful what you change or move. <a href="https://teslamotorsclu...
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