Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[Sigma4Life]

The funny thing is - Omar probably believes what he says.

I think with some it is not about absolute (or compared to humans) how FSD drives - but it is compared to how it drove "earlier". I guess FSD drives smoother than it drove a year earlier (on any given day) - but that is not what we actually mean by "smooth".

I can say 10.10.2 is less jerky than 10.2 when we first got FSD Beta.

Is this the same Omar from these forums?

 

[generalmilk]

The funny thing is - Omar probably believes what he says.

I think with some it is not about absolute (or compared to humans) how FSD drives - but it is compared to how it drove "earlier". I guess FSD drives smoother than it drove a year earlier (on any given day) - but that is not what we actually mean by "smooth".

I can say 10.10.2 is less jerky than 10.2 when we first got FSD Beta.

10.2 is beef jerky. Remember how it jerks the wheel nonstop while stopped in front of the interaction.

 

[EVNow]

Is this the same Omar from these forums?

I don’t think he uses TMC … just @WholeMarsBlog on Twitter.

 

[aronth5]

I don’t think he uses TMC … just @WholeMarsBlog on Twitter.

Sometimes I politely challenge his assertions on Twitter and ask for clarification. Elon does reply to him sometimes but for the most part ignores Omar.

 

[EVNow]

Sometimes I politely challenge his assertions on Twitter and ask for clarification. Elon does reply to him sometimes but for the most part ignores Omar.

A lot of them are tweeting out just to get Musk's attention. They have an audience of "one"

 

[FelixORiley]

Either I’ve gone crazy waiting for Beta access, or my curiosity is borderline neurotic, but I wanted to summarize for myself the major promises & plans captured in this thread.

Early FSD Pipe Dream Tweets

https://twitter.com/x/status/686279251293777920

Summon to anywhere should work by 2018. (nope)

https://twitter.com/x/status/788955029138972674

Autonomous cross-country trip planned for 2017. (didn’t happen)

https://twitter.com/x/status/823727035088416768

FSD Features to depart from EAP by mid-2017.

How to Get In the Beta/Rollout Expectations

https://twitter.com/x/status/1421593704213667855

Sets the standard for Friday @ midnight PT Beta releases (technically Saturday).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442716005936078855

Plan is to add 1,000 drivers per day to Beta. No mention of cap or required safety score yet.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1453473174453198849?s=21
Slower rollout planned. Internal employee checkout first. Still 1000 uploads/hr the day after internal roll out.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1442707528924684293?s=21
No commitment to minimum score yet… just a priority order from best to worst.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1438751064765906945?s=21
Only 7 day assessment required. (many have waited months/since Dec)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1439787397022199812?s=21
Again, 7 days of safety score jail, then you should get Beta access if your score is high enough.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1449574304526393348?s=21
Single stack coming with Beta 11.0

FSD Beta Forecast Timelines

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368329387733512193?s=21
FSD Beta button promised for ~16 Mar ‘21. (didn’t happen till 25 Sept ‘21)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1430657502966910985?s=21
Beta 10 to be public Beta in early Oct ‘21. (actually true with 10.2!)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1433227637351088128?s=21
Beta 10.1 now the button release. Set for 25 Sept ‘21. (hey, this was right!)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1436674339831750660?s=21
Beta 10.1 supposed to be single stack. (announced the day Beta 10 released… now forecast for Beta 11)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1436774682527678475?s=21
Beta 10.1 pushed to 2 Oct ‘21. (still ended up being 25 Sept)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1441562625662464000?s=21
Beta Button to go live 24 Sept. Beta 10.1 rolled out 3 days later. Car supposed to give recommendations on how to improve score (which the app sort of does).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1443892118745911309?s=21
Acceptance of new Beta users pushed to 10.2 release. Scheduled for 8 Oct ‘21.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1447472059152408578?s=21
10.2 released on 11 Oct ‘21 only to ~1000 perfect 100s.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1448850617661861916?s=21
10.3 planned for 22 Oct ‘21 for all 99 scores.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1452576223620747266?s=21
10.3.1 released after last minute bug fixes on 25 Oct ‘21.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1453475032253014019?s=21
10.4 to release 5 Nov ‘21 to 98s.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457417472504745990?s=21
10.4 starts rolling out on 7 Nov ‘21 after last minute bug fixes. Won’t go to 98s unless it looks good over next several days. (guess it didn’t)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1458969054178336769?s=21
98s now have to wait for 10.5, scheduled for 21 Nov ‘21. (when rollout did start!)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1466801326218698761?s=21
10.6 releasing weekend of 5 Dec ‘21. (when rollout did start!)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1469541536128020485?s=21
10.7 releasing 17 Dec ‘21. (close enough!)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1472065241420898306?s=21
10.8 scheduled for 21 Dec ‘21 (holiday update).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1472066570851696647?s=21
97 scores should probably get Beta access with 10.8. (a few snuck in I think)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1474144811951214592?s=21
10.8 released 23 Dec ‘21. (last acceptance of new Beta testers)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1479590174828998663?s=21
10.9 releasing 14 Jan ‘22. Beta 11.0 probably in Feb.

Quick Backtrack for Canadian FSD Beta Tweets

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1458969054178336769?s=21
Canadian Beta maybe in December ‘21.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1482860632403759118?s=21
Canadian Beta coming between 30 Jan-13 Feb ‘22.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1488616492329484296?s=21
Canadian Beta coming in Feb ‘22.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1494850093131780099?s=21
Canadian Beta coming in Feb ‘22 (more than halfway through the month).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497275384420786176?s=21
Canadian Beta coming in Feb ‘22 (only 4 days left). It didn’t, but button did.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499421678455058433?s=21
Again, Beta should come 7 days after button press with 98+ SS in Canada. (at 24 days & counting)

Back to Regularly Scheduled Timeline Tweets

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1500336079458627585?s=21
Beta 10.12 coming 8 Mar (US) and 12 Mar (Canada).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1501796086255693827?s=21
Beta 10.12 now coming 12 Mar (presumably for all).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1503171794932543494?s=21
Jk. 10.11 is next, and it could go out to 95 scores. (rollout on 13 Mar, only a tenth of current Beta fleet got it)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1504646385018318848?s=21
Canadian Beta coming 21-27 Mar ‘21. (still waiting as of 23 Mar)

Tweets for Crusty Old Cars
*thank you for your service…

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1451354738935615489?s=21
2016-2017 Teslas will get beta (if the have necessary hardware upgrades)

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1473717500047151120?s=21
2016-2017 Models S/X who got RCCB upgrades should get Beta with 10.8

 

[EVNow]

Either I’ve gone crazy waiting for Beta access, or my curiosity is borderline neurotic,

or both ?

 

[Terminator857]

Either I’ve gone crazy waiting for Beta access, or my curiosity is borderline neurotic, but I wanted to summarize for myself the major promises & plans captured in this thread. ...

Or completely sane and rational like the rest of us.

 

[Knightshade]

Either I’ve gone crazy waiting for Beta access, or my curiosity is borderline neurotic, but I wanted to summarize for myself the major promises & plans captured in this thread.

Much shorter version:

Elon in 2015: self driving is easy, we're about to seriously work on it and think we will be done soon.

Elon in 2021: self driving is really hard, we've been working on it for years and think we will be done soon.

 

[EVNow]

Either I’ve gone crazy waiting for Beta access, or my curiosity is borderline neurotic, but I wanted to summarize for myself the major promises & plans captured in this thread.

Actually, if you are still curious, you can also trace all the news items about comments by other companies on when they will have self-driving ready. I think you will find that the entire industry has been rather wrong !

 

[doozenberg]

Not Musk, Omar. But, hilarious.

Since March of last year he has been describing FSD as "smooth".

View attachment 784451 View attachment 784452 View attachment 784453

This is what happens when you live in an echo chamber within an echo chamber.

 

[EVNow]

Are we sure some of the old tweets were someone who hacked into Musk's account ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507343069120991234

 

[eli_]

I remain unconvinced that Elon even works at Tesla. Anyone could have made those Tweets with the same level of accuracy, no inside knowledge required.

Let me try: "Beta 10.12 should be ready in about a week"

 

[nvx1977]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507596559831101446

 

[Bouba]

I think we should cut Elon some slack..anyone who is getting ready to fight Putin needs time to prepare

 

[Mardak]

FSD Beta is officially international now with some new explicit geofencing to avoid Toronto streetcars:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508110810614181890

Looks like at least a 10.12 before FSD Beta 11 single stack:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508105232584044555

 

[JulienW]

Tesla Silicon Valley Club probably has a standard Tweet form: _______ has huge improvements. Best build so far. @elonmusk. Just fill in the blanks to whatever the latest version is.

 

[EVNow]

FSD Beta is officially international now with some new explicit geofencing to avoid Toronto streetcars:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508110810614181890

Interesting that SF trams are not an issue. May be because trams have a single car and basically look like a bus. Street cars have 2 cars ?

 

[Terminator857]

Speculation: Karpathy doesn't want to be bothered with FSD HW3 now that HW4 is around the corner. Karpathy coming back when it is time to have fun with next level hardware.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508148604149587972

Quote: Taking some time off to rest&travel after almost 5 years at Tesla. Esp excited to get focused time to re-sharpen my technical edge and train some neural nets! Though I already miss all the robots and GPU/Dojo clusters and looking forward to having them at my fingertips again

 

[Terminator857]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508105232584044555

Quote: 10.12 will have major improvements for tricky unprotected lefts & heavy traffic in general. We’re also making good progress with single stack.