Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[2101Guy]

This may help, especially since Tesla FSD/FSDB/FSD(b)/FSD w/Single Stack/FSD with DOJO/FSD with 4680, etc, is nothing but L2 (despite what the CEO tweets/says/promises by end of year, by end of next year, etc)​

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Level 2: Partial driving automation​

At Level 2, vehicles provide partial automation by continuously helping drivers with acceleration, braking, and steering. Level 2 vehicles are typically equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that can take control—in specific scenarios—over the above-mentioned functions.

In 2014, Tesla Motors announced its first version of Autopilot, which later expanded to support autonomous steering, braking, speed adjustment, and parking capabilities. In October 2020, Tesla rolled out the first version of its full self-driving beta (FSD Beta) software and continues to release updates at a steady cadence. Despite the introduction of additional features, Tesla’s Autopilot is still classified as Level 2 partial driving automation technology.

The Highway Driving Assist system is another example of real-world Level 2 partial driving automation. Highway Driving Assist systems are installed in vehicles manufactured by Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia. Although these cars require drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel, the driving assist systems actively steer, accelerate, and brake when traveling on highways.

BlueCruise—a new hands-free partial driving system from Ford—is a third example of real-world Level 2 partial driving automation. BlueCruise allows drivers to take their hands off the steering wheel on certain approved highways in the United States and Canada.

 

[arghx7]

You are mistaken.

Mobileye does make their own cameras, radars, lidar. They sell directly to OEMs, they have one of the largest fleet of vehicles collecting data for their REM Maps at scale. They collect data from mobileye equipped vehicles and you would be hard pressed to find a manufacturer that does not use mobileye for ADAS, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Hyundai, VolksWagen, Zeekr/Geely, GM, Ford all use Mobileye chips and software. They get to decide sensor placements for vehicles, depending on how involved you want them to be. They can just sell you parts piecemeal or they can integrate the entire stack like Zeekr1 for example is a bottom up integration by mobileye including updating the software to improve it over time, vs BMW that uses eyeQ chips and run their own software.

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Tier 1: Valeo" at 23 seconds. Comfort & Driving Assistance Systems
Tier 1: Aptiv (Aptiv is former Delphi, spun off from GM) at 49 seconds. ADAS | Advanced Safety | Aptiv

They don't actually make their own radar, camera, or lidar. Maybe they have some prototype running around. Bosch, Aptiv, TRW (ZF), Valeo are among the big ones who actually sell these systems. Even in the video you cited, their Level 4 system has a bunch of EyeQ chips, the thing they actually sell and mention on their website, and a bunch of unnamed other sensors that they got from suppliers. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just that they're not a massive company with factories and R&D facilities all over the world. They have only 2500 employees, those people aren't running radar factories. It's a perfectly good business model, but it's not Tesla's. Their lack of vertical integration is what makes their valuation so high. They don't have to pay pensions for thousands of factory workers.

And of course they collect data from customers (OEMS)--If the customers have a special development fleet going for that purpose for a limited time. Your mom's Escape isn't sending data to the cloud for Mobileye to look at. After the model year is launched, they move on, just like every other supplier. They're not sending software updates to the 2021 Subaru you bought last year to improve the pedestrian detection. It's a totally different way of doing business, probably more profitable than what Tesla is doing, but it's not the same setup at all.

 

[Supcom]

They don't actually make their own radar, camera, or lidar. Maybe they have some prototype running around. Bosch, Aptiv, TRW (ZF), Valeo are among the big ones who actually sell these systems.

Although they may not do the actual manufacturing, they likely buy them off their own specification, and may have their own part number applied. So, in a sense they make the items.

 

[arghx7]

in 3:30 in the video it says the radar is "on track to be production ready in 2024," meaning you can't buy a car with their radar yet, and we don't know the details of its manufacture.

Anyway, lots of cars have simple ADAS systems without full telematics connectivity so they're not going to be able to feed back training video to the Mobilieye once the vehicle is in customer hands.

I will say, Mobileye are probably getting data from the people who bought Supercruise (and probably a couple other high end luxury systems), as Supercruise does have subscription over the air updates. The question is: does the data collected from say Supercruise actually help train neural nets applied to other ADAS systems they sell to with different cameras and sensor suites? Probably to some extent, but does info gathered on a Valeo system work well with an Aptiv system? That's the disadvantage of being a Tier 2 supplier with all these different customers.

 

[j0shm1lls]

Remember when the Elon: FSD Beta tweets thread had Elon: FSD Beta tweets in it?
Pepperidge farms remembers.

 

[2101Guy]

Now we actually have to go to the company he owns (Twitter) to see his tweets that are talking about Tesla.
The irony

 

[nvx1977]

Remember when the Elon: FSD Beta tweets thread had Elon: FSD Beta tweets in it?
Pepperidge farms remembers.

go find one and post it here.

i'll save you the time. Elon is dealing with Apple threatening to drop Twitter from the app store. Nothing on FSD beta.

 

[JulienW]

go find one and post it here.

i'll save you the time. Elon is dealing with Apple threatening to drop Twitter from the app store. Nothing on FSD beta.

He is also been Tweeting completely made up stories. Guess it is parody when he or right wing nationals do it but suspension when left wingers do it without saying parody. Seems "free speech" is all in his mind, or at least what he feels in the moment.

Buying Tweeter: One of the worst ideas in history.

 

[Mardak]

I wonder with his main goal of FSD wide release this year basically completed, there doesn't need to be as much urgency or fanfare for the rest of this year? Getting FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 merged from the latest production firmware on 2022.40.x could be done as a 10.69.3.2 probably without too much effort from the Autopilot team to make it available to more people especially FSD subscribers. A little bit more complex for the Vehicle Software team would be to merge the wide release to the production firmware so that the FSD Beta request button can be replaced with a toggle (probably still with extra confirmations and checkboxes) without a lengthy download and install process.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1596435023871500293

I believe he previously tied wide release to FSD Beta 11, but now they're separate, it's less clear if single stack for city streets and highways and parking lots is on the critical path for this year or if Autopilot team will release some parts sooner, e.g., Tesla Vision replacing ultrasonic sensors.

 

[thewishmaster]

I wonder with his main goal of FSD wide release this year basically completed, there doesn't need to be as much urgency or fanfare for the rest of this year? Getting FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 merged from the latest production firmware on 2022.40.x could be done as a 10.69.3.2 probably without too much effort from the Autopilot team to make it available to more people especially FSD subscribers. A little bit more complex for the Vehicle Software team would be to merge the wide release to the production firmware so that the FSD Beta request button can be replaced with a toggle (probably still with extra confirmations and checkboxes) without a lengthy download and install process.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1596435023871500293

I believe he previously tied wide release to FSD Beta 11, but now they're separate, it's less clear if single stack for city streets and highways and parking lots is on the critical path for this year or if Autopilot team will release some parts sooner, e.g., Tesla Vision replacing ultrasonic sensors.

Whoever suggested that v11 might be 10.69.3.1 with the highway stack added is likely right on the money. If 10.69.3.1 is good enough to be "wide" (a few checkboxes and button presses nonwithstanding) then I doubt there's much to be added for city driving at the moment

 

[loquitur]

Whoever suggested that v11 might be 10.69.3.1 with the highway stack added is likely right on the money. If 10.69.3.1 is good enough to be "wide" (a few checkboxes and button presses nonwithstanding) then I doubt there's much to be added for city driving at the moment

Maybe it's minor, but from the v11 notes "Improved Occupancy Network's recall for close by obstacles" (i.e. curbs? VRUs?) and then later "Reduced latency of trajectory optimization by 20% on average" do seem relevant to City Streets.

 

[thewishmaster]

Maybe it's minor, but from the v11 notes "Improved Occupancy Network's recall for close by obstacles" (i.e. curbs? VRUs?) and then later "Reduced latency of trajectory optimization by 20% on average" do seem relevant to City Streets.

True. Maybe that first one will also help improve upon 69.3.1’s wild behavior on unmarked roads (fear of parked cars resulting in traveling down the middle of the road again, lots of phantom braking when passing cars traveling the opposite direction even when there is no immediate danger).

 

[2101Guy]

Suprised he hasnt tweeted/gone off/provided various excuses/placed blame on other for this one yet...

Elon Musk's Boring Company Ghosts Cities Across America

 

[thewishmaster]

Not Elon, but still:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597497401509441536

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Does Elon know something I don’t? Because this seems like magical thinking!

And no, it is not the same as the magical thinking that Tesla would succeed as a car company - it was much more apparent at the Model S drive event many years ago that they had a good product.

It’s not clear what they have with FSD Beta.

Very fortunately for Tesla they have no competition in this space (I guess that does make it monopolistic!) and success/failure of FSD Beta makes little difference to the company’s fortunes - or at least, there’s only highly highly improbable significant upside.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597785546922737664

 

[Mardak]

It’s not clear what they have with FSD Beta

FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 is probably driving close to 500k miles every day with the current fleet, and FSD Beta 11 should pass 1M miles daily with the release of single stack highway driving. Tesla is monitoring the rate of necessary safety critical interventions, and presumably they don't see technical limitations of their approach to keep driving that down.

They are also probably well aware of comfort / polish issues that lead to relatively low utilization of FSD Beta (currently less than 3 miles per day per tester compared to an average 30 daily miles), so maybe they have a clearer roadmap internally of how to reach an order of magnitude more daily miles after the first priority of safety.

He has previously estimated needing to get to billions of miles, so at least with that metric, how does Tesla compare to others?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569165163093282816

 

[spacecoin]

Does Elon know something I don’t?

How do lie with a straight face?

 

[2101Guy]

How do lie with a straight face?

Thin line between genius and delusional

 

[Matias]

FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 is probably driving close to 500k miles every day with the current fleet, and FSD Beta 11 should pass 1M miles daily with the release of single stack highway driving. Tesla is monitoring the rate of necessary safety critical interventions, and presumably they don't see technical limitations of their approach to keep driving that down.

They are also probably well aware of comfort / polish issues that lead to relatively low utilization of FSD Beta (currently less than 3 miles per day per tester compared to an average 30 daily miles), so maybe they have a clearer roadmap internally of how to reach an order of magnitude more daily miles after the first priority of safety.

He has previously estimated needing to get to billions of miles, so at least with that metric, how does Tesla compare to others?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569165163093282816

Musk's forward looking statements regarding FSD are completely worthless.
Source; everything he has said about it from 2016.

 

[2101Guy]

Musk's forward looking statements regarding FSD are completely worthless.
Source; everything he has said about it from 2016.

Not just FSD. But when we think of other things like "will enable horn activation via airbag press on yokes with a simply OTA update push" (which he promised months ago), and never heard a peep about that again. (and we also found out via Sandy Munro that there is NO switch behind the airbag that can be depressed/activated).

Promises about Boring progress/timelines, and this used to be Summer 2022, now its Fall 2022...but yet we are in winter 2022..I mean, can we REALLY go by any timeline he gives?