Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[AlanSubie4Life]

Conventional vehicle safety is ~1 fatality per 1M miles.

This stat struck me as “I never want to get in a vehicle again!” And “why has someone in my immediate family not died in an accident yet?”

So I checked it. It’s about 75x lower risk than that, of course.

~1.35 or so per 100 million miles.

NHTSA Estimates for 2022 Show Roadway Fatalities Remain Flat After Two Years of Dramatic Increases | NHTSA

NHTSA released 2022 early estimates for traffic crash deaths. Fatalities remain flat after 2 years of increases; projected declined in fourth quarter.

www.nhtsa.gov

 

[polyphonic54]

So how is "FSD" these days?

Cruise has had completely driverless cars out on the streets all year, hundreds of them if not more. You would hardly know it by the way the cars are driving. Or if you noticed that there wasn't a single person occupying the vehicles.

 

[diplomat33]

So how is "FSD" these days?

Cruise has had completely driverless cars out on the streets all year, hundreds of them if not more. You would hardly know it by the way the cars are driving. Or if you noticed that there wasn't a single person occupying the vehicles.

Tesla FSD is not driverless. It can drive from point to point anywhere but it requires constant supervision. There are some routes, under certain conditions, that it will handle very well and not require any driver intervention. But there are other routes and conditions where it will fail. And there are driving tasks that it cannot do at all.

 

[Knightshade]

So how is "FSD" these days?

Cruise has had completely driverless cars out on the streets all year, hundreds of them if not more. You would hardly know it by the way the cars are driving. Or if you noticed that there wasn't a single person occupying the vehicles.

There's plenty of valid criticism of FSD, which is why it's always so weird when people instead go with nonsense like the above.

There's been tremendous discussion about Cruise causing major problems all over the city, so folks are certainly knowing it by the way the cars are driving.

S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’ What is the city’s plan?

As driverless taxis ramp up operations in San Francisco, their disruption and close calls...

www.sfchronicle.com

 

[Bladerskb]

Not one? What about @Bladerskb?

There may even be a few others, some of which I have put on ignore due to their content-free posts. However that @Bladerskb person has many informative posts (and a few not so much). He really adds value to the conversation, IMO.

GSP

I'm far from being a critic, nor a hater. I simply make logical/reasonable statements.

If I was some Tesla critic/hater, I wouldn't have said that Mobileye is 5-6 years behind Waymo as it stand right now.
I make statement by looking at all logical positions and evaluating with facts and evidence.

Look at my track record, I spoke out against the absurdity that HW2 (10 TOPS) would be enough for L5. Back then fans called me a critic and hater for saying you need way more compute and for going against Elon. Fast forward 7 years, am I still a critic for saying that?

 

[Bladerskb]

There's plenty of valid criticism of FSD, which is why it's always so weird when people instead go with nonsense like the above.

There's been tremendous discussion about Cruise causing major problems all over the city, so folks are certainly knowing it by the way the cars are driving.

S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’ What is the city’s plan?

As driverless taxis ramp up operations in San Francisco, their disruption and close calls...

www.sfchronicle.com

"S.F. says incidents by Tesla driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’ What is the city’s plan?"

Tesla Fans Reaction: LIES, BIG OIL, BIG AUTO! THEY WANT TO STOP TESLA BECAUSE TESLA IS 10 YEARS AHEAD! FAKE NEWS MEDIA!

is it Valid criticism when every single article or video that isn't outright praising FSD is meet with violent rage from Tesla fans?

 

[Knightshade]

You

I'm far from being a critic, nor a hater.

Also you, in literally the next post- replying to a link about Waymo and Cruise, that did not even mention Tesla:

"S.F. says incidents by Tesla driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’ What is the city’s plan?"

Tesla Fans Reaction: LIES, BIG OIL, BIG AUTO! THEY WANT TO STOP TESLA BECAUSE TESLA IS 10 YEARS AHEAD! FAKE NEWS MEDIA!

is it Valid criticism when every single article or video that isn't outright praising FSD is meet with violent rage from Tesla fans?

that's 4 irony meters broken now my dude- gonna start billing you.

 

[spacecoin]

This stat struck me as “I never want to get in a vehicle again!” And “why has someone in my immediate family not died in an accident yet?”

So I checked it. It’s about 75x lower risk than that, of course.

~1.35 or so per 100 million miles.

Yeah, total brain fart from my end. Should be approx 1 fatality per 100M miles which leads to 5M miles per failure per my math, which is about 62500 times more than FSD current @ 80 miles. So that’s never going to happen on existing cars.

 

[DanCar]

Excuse if this is a repost:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680039131089604620

Guessing it will be at least 18 months before HW4 performs better than HW3. More likely 2+ years?
Takes time to collect lots of high resolution video of odd cases. Then Tesla has to weigh the ROI of such support. ROI = return on investment.

 

[t3sl4drvr]

Interesting. Pretty sure I have averaged 10k annually on FSD or really close to that. No accident yet.

Have you ever disengaged FSD?

 

[Yelobird]

Have you ever disengaged FSD?

Not sure I understand the question but yes I have disengaged it?

 

[polyphonic54]

There's plenty of valid criticism of FSD, which is why it's always so weird when people instead go with nonsense like the above.

There's been tremendous discussion about Cruise causing major problems all over the city, so folks are certainly knowing it by the way the cars are driving.

S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’ What is the city’s plan?

As driverless taxis ramp up operations in San Francisco, their disruption and close calls...

www.sfchronicle.com

Tesla is so far behind that they are not even taken seriously by the real self driving car companies. Sorry to throw cold water on FSD, but it’s a scam that deserves the shame it gets.

 

[Mullermn]

Tesla is so far behind that they are not even taken seriously by the real self driving car companies. Sorry to throw cold water on FSD, but it’s a scam that deserves the shame it gets.

The Venn diagram between car companies that didn't take Tesla seriously and the companies that are scrambling to stop Tesla stealing their market has a significant overlap. Whether that proves true for FSD remains to be seen but I wouldn't those chickens yet.

 

[DanCar]

11.4.6 going out to employees. Reduces unnecessary slowdowns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682594510545584128

 

[DanCar]

11.4.6 release notes

2023.7.26 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2023.7.26 (FSD Beta 11.4.6) includes FSD Beta v11.4.6.

www.notateslaapp.com

In this update Tesla is introducing Automatic Emergency Braking for generalized objects, not just vehicles, as detected by their Occupancy Network.

 

[JulienW]

11.4.6 release notes

2023.7.26 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2023.7.26 (FSD Beta 11.4.6) includes FSD Beta v11.4.6.

www.notateslaapp.com

In this update Tesla is introducing Automatic Emergency Braking for generalized objects, not just vehicles, as detected by their Occupancy Network.

So like shadows from bridges? So instead of slight phantom braking it will now be full on emergency braking?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

11.4.6 release notes

2023.7.26 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2023.7.26 (FSD Beta 11.4.6) includes FSD Beta v11.4.6.

www.notateslaapp.com

In this update Tesla is introducing Automatic Emergency Braking for generalized objects, not just vehicles, as detected by their Occupancy Network.

Given the FCW performance (or lack thereof) on 11.4.4, this is going to be interesting.

“Reduces unnecessary slowdowns”

While adding slowdowns that are necessary? Hmm. We’ll see!

Hopefully it works great.

Maybe it will fix this? (A completely unnecessary collision; a human would have had NO problem!)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681487158216118272

 

[spacecoin]

Given the FCW performance (or lack thereof) on 11.4.4, this is going to be interesting.

“Reduces unnecessary slowdowns”

While adding slowdowns that are necessary? Hmm. We’ll see!

Hopefully it works great.

Maybe it will fix this? (A completely unnecessary collision; a human would have had NO problem!)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681487158216118272

Have you heard about this thing called Lidar? Its relatively cheap and its great. Especially at night and when passive cameras are blinded like here. Also doesn’t rely on ML. That means it doesn’t miss stuff and has lower latency.

You’re welcome!

Or perhaps keep maximizing profits on the 15k add on and keep breaking for shadows and driving into stationary things at night? Safety? Who needs it? Elon says humans drive with only eyes so clearly computers can too, at least when/if we solve AGI in 50 years.

Isn’t the point to make it safer than a human? Oh FSD already is safer than a human? I forgot… Silly me.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Have you heard about this thing called Lidar?

Yes, it seems like a great idea to have that.

Especially at night and when passive cameras are blinded like here.

Clearly they weren’t blinded. As can be seen in the video. Not even close to a close call (the car had an essential eternity, two seconds at least, based on the compressed incomplete video feed, to stop). I think you misidentify the issue. Lidar certainly seems like it would be easier though (and cover actual holes in vision!).

Elon says humans drive with only eyes so clearly computers can too, at least when/if we solve AGI in 50 years.

There is this weird inconsistency in what he says. On one hand he says humans don’t need it…so FSD does not…on the other hand he says that FSD needs to be 10x better than human. Is he saying the capability of average humans vs. the best human varies by an order of magnitude? Is he saying humans just get tired or drunk and that causes accidents? How does one get 10x better (or even more as he suggested in the latest earnings call) than a human with the same sensors as a human? Seems like more might be needed.

 

[DanCar]

Most accidents, >90%, are caused by human error. Something like inattentiveness and speeding. So if we have human level performance, and solve the problem of inattentiveness, speeding, etc..., then theoretically can get to 10x human performance.