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Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

Discussion in 'Model X' started by CTemp222, Feb 6, 2016.

  1. CTemp222

    CTemp222 Member

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    In a new Q&A in France Elon said that Q2 MX production will be 1,000 per week.

    Here's a link to the thread with the video.
    Elon Musk QA in France
     
  2. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    #2 dortor4ev, Feb 6, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2016
    Elon says

    1. Model X will be available later half of 2014
    2. Powerwall will install summer 2015
    3. Model X was not delayed by Falcon wing doors (then they sued the original designer and switched in May 2015)
    4. Model X was introduced and ready for production in Sept. 2015
    5. There will be ludicrous mode upgrade for Model S's - mine is still not delivered and "no time is available" according my m Server Center in sunnyvale
    6. The original Model S would drive 300 miles
    7. The P85D would go 280 miles and was more efficient than a single drive car
    8. Tesla would never release a car that wasn't as good as the concept car - lack of 2nd row folding seats vs. the concept that had 2nd row folding seats
    9. Tesla would ship close to 58,000 cars in 2015 - later revised down to a lower 50k number
    10. The Model III will be unveiled in March - now revised to some sort of partial unveiling
    11. The company is 100%n focused on the Model 3 - factually incorrect given all the late breaking engineering issues with the X
    12. Employment numbers of the giga-factory - now shows to be grossly overestimated
    13. Reliability of the Model S drive train - actual reliability data shows that 2/3'rds of the drive trains are being replaced in the 60,000 mile range - not a customer problem, but certainly an ongoing reliability problem and cost to the investors and company in general
    14. The original P85D delivery schedule - later delayed due to lack of next generation seats
    15. There won't be a major revision of the Model S for at least a year - 6 months later the "D" is introduced
    16. Any of the supercharger roll out schedules - while they have rolled out it's much slower than Elon indicated it would be
    17. How long it takes to charge at a super charger - much slower when you're sharing a supercharger with another Tesla
    18. Battery swap stations
    19. come on people - there's a lot more - let's turn this thread into "Lie's Elon told me and I believed!"

    I'm not saying Tesla doesn't accomplish things - some of them are even true - but quite often the timeline is materially different than what was indicated and the technology or plan is introduced with the most optimistic schedule that rarely bares any resemblance to reality and often delayed with foreseeable obstacles or lack of resourcing that is readily apparent to most anyone at the time it leaves Elon's mouth.

    forgive me if I do not believe a word that comes out of Elon's mouth.
     
  3. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    well said. the more you "blindly" trusted Elon, the more money you lost in past two years.
     
  4. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    has anyone else notices that "next quarter" has always been the quarter that the Model X would finally do "blah"…it's always next quarter that they will finally get it done.
     
  5. DougH

    DougH Active Member

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    Wasn't he just in China?
     
  6. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

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    Tesla is going to sell X in large numbers and is going to win many accolades for the innovation in the car. Deadlines are just estimates. They are to give people a rough idea of how long the process might take. There is always a margin for error. The more innovative task you are performing, the more that margin maybe. But delays don't matter. What matters is Tesla is taking humanity into the direction it never has been in, slowly but surely towards a beautiful and exciting future. (my humble opinion).
     
  7. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    #7 dortor4ev, Feb 6, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2016
    public statements that are factually incorrect by a CEO of a public company are material information and should not and can not be estimates. Elon is desperately trying to save the stock price now that the investors have figured out that the company has designed a product that can not be built. Elon should quit speaking because most everything that comes out of his mouth is wishful thinking, which isn't a bad thing if he wants to dream and fantasize about the future - but fantasy estimates and wishful thinking has no place as material information from an insider and executive of a publicly traded company. If he continues to do it, it actually is a criminal offense and at a minimum he could lose his position with the company if the board of directors has any balls.

    I know ankit loves his/her rose colored glasses but successful companies do not engage in estimates and fantasies and they don't design mass produced products that can not be mass produced.

    I have seen 3 Model X's on the road - the Falcon wing doors on all 3 are grossly mis-aligned and not befitting of a $150,000 automobile.

    Elon needs to quit confusing his wishful think with material statements - if he wants to engage in pushing us to places we need to go he should do it in the context of a big thinker rather than as CEO making material statements that his company can not follow through on.

    I like most of Elon's ideas, and he is quite good at predicting the future, but is extremely lousy at providing an accurate schedule and reasonable estimates. He also tends to engage in overdesign and does not respect people's investments in his products - by rev'ing them so quickly and so often he routinely accelerates depreciation of his customer's capital purchases and disrupts the market by claiming to deliver technologies that really can't be delivered on a schedule or to the fantasy specifications he claims.
     
  8. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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  9. ModelXBoy

    ModelXBoy No More Door Captain of TMC! Oh Yeah Baby!

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    1000 Model X per week is based on all parts are available at time of build. If something is out of stock, like the Black Onix wheel, the car will be delayed anyway.
     
  10. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

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    He does what he says, he just does it late. And no one can predict the unforeseen problems that one may face in an endeavor. He is an important person for whole of humanity who inspires people all over the world whenever he speaks. He is not only breaking new ground but simultaneously transferring his knowledge and vision to the next generation. We don't want again a period where humanity stops progressing and falls to its violent ways. Ideas are what guides us away from our basic nature. He gives us things that make us hopeful whenever he speaks. He stretches himself thin most of the time while giving estimates, but people want to hear estimates. They want to know when we will go to Mars, when Model 3 will be available to buy, when hyperloop will be ready. He is working at his limit and the least we can do is be patient when he misses his deadlines. He always achieves what he says, just maybe not in the required time frame.
     
  11. quartzav

    quartzav Member

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    9% under Tesla's projection in my opinion is not grossly overestimated. That would lead to "more than one word from Elon's mouth" that you can believe. Whether you want to believe is another story :tongue:
     
  12. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    he can achieve what he says - if he's not sure of the time line he shouldn't announce one - to do otherwise is in fact criminal. it's called misleading investors.

    You can push humanity and do what you say - and you can do it in secret and only announce once it's ready.

    Elon is lying most of the time - to call it otherwise it simply denial.

    No one is compelling him to discuss schedules - he volunteers the information - he calls the press conferences.

    He can continue to push humanity - but he should do it more quietly and announce when ready. The impact would be huge and the accomplishments major if he did what he said he was going to do when he says he is going to do it.

    So far most of his claims are suspect and amount to a pattern of lying to investors. This chicken will come home to roost. And already partially is given the recent stock price tanking - which will continue.
     
  13. Macgaver

    Macgaver Member

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    Every new model of Tesla come with initial doubts and stress. It's mandatory when you bring so many inovations all over the product. All SUV on the road look the same and do the same.

    I believe that in 6 months the Model X will once again prove everyone that, Yes, it really is amazing and without any alternative out there, and this will make the car of the Year for this reason.

    Nothing is perfect, but at least they try, and for this reason they have my thrust.
    Lets have some faith!
     
  14. andrewket

    andrewket 2014 S P85DL, 2016 X P90DL (soon 100)

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    The comment about no major changes to the S for a year was said AT the "D" event, and was true.
     
  15. lango

    lango Member

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    He is putting dates on things for several reasons:

    Generate interest in the company and the products.
    Motivate/force the company and it's workers to work really hard. The pressure goes up if there is a public date set.
    Information removes uncertainty and makes them set the agenda. This is working far from 100% but it is much better than no information at all.

    As an investor you can add half a year to the dates.
     
  16. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    My responses in red.

     
  17. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

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    Yes. He has learnt that. Maybe that's why he has said that the Model 3 reveal will be done in staggered manner. And the only information relevant to investors is given in the quarterly earnings call. He speaks a lot of time as public figure too. Whatever he has said recently he has achieved it in the required time frame. Even if you glance at your statements, they have come from Tesla won't be able to produce X at all to I have seen 3 X with imperfect doors. That's huge progress. Tesla will get those doors too. And his deadlines are more accurate now. We will see significant rise in X deliveries this quater.
     
  18. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    6. Model S will drive 300 miles if you don't actually drive it at HWY speeds - Elon only later revised the range after delivery was showing no one actually drives 300 miles - I know the Model S can go farther than 300 miles but it has to be driven quite slowly

    8. I believe the existing threads on lack of folding 2nd row seat shows that people consider the current Model X to be "less" than the concept car.

    9. Material change on a publicly traded company - original number included Model X deliveries which to insiders should've been obvious they couldn't meet - especially when they knowingly were changing design of falcon wing doors in May of 2015 by having to go with another vendor

    10. Tesla Wont Properly Unveil The Model 3 Next Month | Ubergizmo - yes that was what was said - it will not be unveiled in March - and it won't ship in 2017 - but we'll see

    11. employment will be lower

    13. Two-Thirds of Earliest Tesla Drivetrains To Need Replacement In 60,000 Miles, Owner Data Suggests

    14. The knew the seats were a problem - they didn't have to announce - if you don't have your supply chain lined up you don't announce products.

    15. Foreseeable outcome given long standing real world experience with building permits and problems with construction and weather - again no one forced him to declare a schedule.

    16. Yes Tesla's website said 20 min for a very long time - they later revised it and clarified by explaining it can take longer - they still do not discuss that it will take substantially longer if you're sharing a spot with another car changing.

    19. Elon has announced they will not be pursuing any further battery swap stations - tesla battery swap stations - Tesla's battery swap program is pretty much dead - Fortune
     
  19. CarlK

    CarlK Member

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    Detractors reaction of good news is really something.
     
  20. dortor4ev

    dortor4ev Member

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    it's not a reaction to good news - it's a reaction to probably another lie that is foreseeable incorrect…

    but apparently if it's incorrect JPR3 will think it's perfectly ok for a CEO of a publicly traded company to make factually incorrect statements by stating "Stuff happens, I'm guessing Elon…"

    Why is everyone willing to give Elon such a pass on missing deadlines and schedule - does anyone disagree that Tesla would be more successful and more respected if Elon kept doing what he was doing but only announced closer to an actual product deadline?

    Surprise and delight and ship when you say you're going to ship and Tesla would be outrageously successful.

    Elon does not have to preannouce this stuff.
     

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