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Elon & Twitter

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No, but given he's headed in the opposite direction of successful, the trend doesn't look good for his intuition in the space
I'd say two weeks is too few to establish a trend, especially since we don't know what is happening behind the scenes. All we have is articles published by media with huge incentive to destroy Elon's plan to "elevate citizen journalism."

 
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This topic about BF Skinner and psychology fascinates me. I also studied behavior and see how repeating a lie over and over starts making people believe it, but one of the things that really scares me is the subliminal advertising. They used to do this during movies to get people to buy popcorn. How much of that is going on to get people to buy legacy autos? I wonder. Hopefully the next generation will become smarter and won't believe all the BS. Great topics. Thanks.
 
Moderator Note: A few posts moved away to random chitchat.

Non-Moderator Content: Can we agree that it's possible to believe that things are not currently going well with Twitter but that things might or might not go well with Twitter moving forward? Just because someone says they think the current situation is a bit of a nightmare doesn't mean they think Twitter will be bankrupt next month. Well, Elon said that but you know what I mean. It seems possible to observe what's happening now and say that there are clearly some major issues but still hold the idea that those issues could be resolved in the future. I don't see many people here saying that everything's going swimmingly at this point. So it seems there is agreement there - it's a rough start, potentially a necessary rough start, and the future is uncertain.
 
Moderator Note: A few posts moved away to random chitchat.

Non-Moderator Content: Can we agree that it's possible to believe that things are not currently going well with Twitter but that things might or might not go well with Twitter moving forward? Just because someone says they think the current situation is a bit of a nightmare doesn't mean they think Twitter will be bankrupt next month. Well, Elon said that but you know what I mean. It seems possible to observe what's happening now and say that there are clearly some major issues but still hold the idea that those issues could be resolved in the future. I don't see many people here saying that everything's going swimmingly at this point. So it seems there is agreement there - it's a rough start, potentially a necessary rough start, and the future is uncertain.
Anyone who has followed Tesla or SpaceX for more than two years knows that Elon's companies will have their ups and downs due to their grand ambitions. What's different with Twitter is that its problems aren't pure tech problems and that Elon has made a series of asinine mistakes from the get-go that make you question his basic judgment about people and how to manage employees. He's pulled rabbits out of his hat before and he has the help of a lot of people in the tech world so there's always a chance. It's just that there's no indication that he's moving in the right direction. In fact, there are signs of the opposite happening. That's what's discouraging if you're a Tesla investor and need Elon to be at the top of his game. It feels like we're five minutes into a football game and we're already down three touchdowns after we've thrown three interceptions because we thought we could win by just throwing bombs.

Another aspect of this Twitter situation that is not encouraging is that, according to a WSJ article, Elon's inner circle includes Jason Calacanis and David Sacks. They co-host the All-In podcast which I frequently listen to. While they're relatively intelligent guys who've made fortunes in tech world, their podcast reveals their flaws. Like with a lot of successful people, it seems that past successes have made them overconfident, even in their opinions about subjects outside of their specialties. They spend too much time opining rather than inquiring. The way Elon has handled the current Twitter situation resembles their attitudes.
 
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Can we agree that it's possible to believe that things are not currently going well with Twitter but that things might or might not go well with Twitter moving forward?
Sure its possible. But I don't know enough to agree "things are not currently going well with Twitter", for two reasons:

1) I haven't read the stories of "chaos" in mainstream media that want Elon's plan to fail. I don't trust them and don't care about early growing pains.

2) Elon's strategy is fail-fast-and-learn, so early work that looks terrible is actually progress. I posted a video of early rocket crashes to try to illustrate this concept.
 
2) Elon's strategy is fail-fast-and-learn, so early work that looks terrible is actually progress. I posted a video of early rocket crashes to try to illustrate this concept.

This. This is the fundamental principle on which Elon has built his companies going all the way back to Paypal. He's not afraid to fail, and he will learn from that.

I firmly believe that the critics are greatly discounting this known quantity of Elon.
 
This. This is the fundamental principle on which Elon has built his companies going all the way back to Paypal. He's not afraid to fail, and he will learn from that.

I firmly believe that the critics are greatly discounting this known quantity of Elon.
Critics don't understand the principle. Most people don't. Most companies don't, which is partly why Tesla and SpaceX are crushing their competitors.
 
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Sure its possible. But I don't know enough to agree "things are not currently going well with Twitter", for two reasons:

1) I haven't read the stories of "chaos" in mainstream media that want Elon's plan to fail. I don't trust them and don't care about early growing pains.

2) Elon's strategy is fail-fast-and-learn, so early work that looks terrible is actually progress. I posted a video of early rocket crashes to try to illustrate this concept.
When rockets were crashing at SpaceX, I’d say that things were not currently going well. Progress from failure I get. But the Christmas near bankruptcy with Tesla wasn’t things going well. Only the outcome can determine if those things were surmountable, and even then cannot acknowledge whether they were necessary. We don’t have the outcome yet, and won’t for some time.

So I’ll stand by my statement that they are not currently going well, and they may or may not result in a positive outcome.
 
When rockets were crashing at SpaceX, I’d say that things were not currently going well. Progress from failure I get. But the Christmas near bankruptcy with Tesla wasn’t things going well. Only the outcome can determine if those things were surmountable, and even then cannot acknowledge whether they were necessary. We don’t have the outcome yet, and won’t for some time.

So I’ll stand by my statement that they are not currently going well, and they may or may not result in a positive outcome.
Plus, there are good mistakes and bad mistakes. Making an engineering miscalculation or being too ambitious in your production expectations is one thing. Deciding to buy a company. Then suddenly deciding not to buy it, claiming an excessive number of bots. Then going to litigation over it. Then at the eleventh hour completely acquiescing and buying the company. Then implementing and canceling random policies all while posting emotional tweets. Well, it's up to each person to decide if these were good mistakes that are part of a positive iterative process, or not. Further, arguing that because Elon has something before means he must be able to do it again is definitely not first principles thinking, which Elon himself espouses. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. It's one thing to hope for the best, it's another to expect it in the face of the facts.
 
Don’t blame us - Elon’s the one that’s been making a mess out of things! I’m not claiming Twitter was perfect before but no one in their right mind can say it’s better now and even the most ardent sycophant is hard pressed to explain or justify the circus of the last 2 weeks.
Read your own post.

2 weeks.

What a joke.
 
Here's another big difference.

When Elon decided to run a rocket company, he already had a decent understanding of rockets and how they work.

Same with electric motors and batteries coming to Tesla.


Twitter? He keeps posting insanely false things like this--- because he had no idea how the company actually worked before he made his offer- didn't bother to look into it after he made his offer, or the months he wasted jerking everyone around ahead of a trial....and apparently STILL hasn't bothered to find out after running the place for a few weeks.



The replies are littered with sourced rebuttals of just how not true Elons claim is.

Like, as ridiculous as someone calling GM by far the leader in EVs or something.


He's losing money on a business he appears to have 0 grasp of the actual business or performance of, but spent 44 billion buying anyway.
 
Twitter? He keeps posting insanely false things like this--- because he had no idea how the company actually worked before he made his offer- didn't bother to look into it after he made his offer, or the months he wasted jerking everyone around ahead of a trial....and apparently STILL hasn't bothered to find out after running the place for a few weeks.

What do you know about what he looked into and what he didn't and where he sees "first principles" potential and where not? Who are you to criticize him? So far he has shown the only way is up, where is your "evidence" (mainstream media hitpieces or "lib" whining will not count (I'm a lib but not a whiner)):



Just shut up and let him kick some butt, there's going to be blood.

Some media outlets are simply envious because Elon can crank out more paying members in a blink of an eye than they have been able to do in decades. They are furious because it shows how bad they are at it and Elon is beating them at their own game.

Twitter is not just twitter, it is an upcoming new media giant that's going to Trump them all: cable tv, tiktok, whatchat, mobile banking, electronic voting, youtube, nytimes, washingtonpost, alternative media, it's going to supersede them all, if done right. It's just a matter of right implementation and architecture, and vision ofcourse. I can see it now, it's just a matter of implementation.
 
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What do you know about what he looked into and what he didn't and where he sees "first principles" potential and where not? Who are you to criticize him? So far he has shown the only way is up, where is your "evidence" (mainstream media hitpieces or "lib" whining will not count (I'm a lib but not a whiner)):



Just shut up and let him kick some butt, there's going to be blood.

Some media outlets are simply envious because Elon can crank out more paying members in a blink of an eye than they have been able to do in decades. They are furious because it shows how bad they are at it and Elon is beating them at their own game.

Twitter is not just twitter, it is an upcoming new media giant that's going to Trump them all: cable tv, tiktok, whatchat, mobile banking, electronic voting, youtube, nytimes, washingtonpost, alternative media, it's going to supersede them all, if done right. It's just a matter of right implementation and architecture, and vision ofcourse. I can see it now, it's just a matter of implementation.
I agree that Elon's track record with running companies should earn him a little benefit of the doubt. But @Knightshade claims that this company is fundamentally different from all his others (including PayPal?) because it deals with human behavior, not physics and engineering (Tesla customers are not human? No engineers at Twitter?) and human behavior has no scientific laws that Elon can use to achieve his goal (Skinner's laws are not scientific?). So there: Elon's genius has clearly vanished or turned to insanity.

Maybe it has, but I'm willing to reserve judgment for more than 2 weeks before posting that assertion over and over. Good luck getting our resident Elon-haters to do that. :)
 
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I agree that Elon's track record with running companies should earn him a little benefit of the doubt. But @Knightshade claims that this company is fundamentally different from all his others (including PayPal?) because it deals with human behavior, not physics and engineering (Tesla customers are not human? No engineers at Twitter?) and human behavior has no scientific laws that Elon can use to achieve his goal (Skinner's laws are not scientific?). So there: Elon's genius has clearly vanished or turned to insanity.

Maybe it has, but I'm willing to reserve judgment for more than 2 weeks before posting that assertion over and over. Good luck getting our resident Elon-haters to do that. :)

Elon's (only) problem with human psychology is that he's an alien


Build it, and they will come.


 
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I'd say two weeks is too few to establish a trend, especially since we don't know what is happening behind the scenes. All we have is articles published by media with huge incentive to destroy Elon's plan to "elevate citizen journalism."


We kinda have Elon's own personal tweets pushing conspiracy theories, threatening nuclear war against advertisers, and confessing that he had absolutely no idea that if he sold badges for $8 people might abuse them in the name of "free speech" which he then decided he doesn't believe in after being an absolutist on the topic as his whole reason for buying twitter in the first place.

Did I miss anything?
 
When rockets were crashing at SpaceX, I’d say that things were not currently going well. Progress from failure I get. But the Christmas near bankruptcy with Tesla wasn’t things going well. Only the outcome can determine if those things were surmountable, and even then cannot acknowledge whether they were necessary. We don’t have the outcome yet, and won’t for some time.

So I’ll stand by my statement that they are not currently going well, and they may or may not result in a positive outcome.

I would also clarify that when Space-X was crashing rockets, they were actually TRYING to land them, not sending them straight down nose first on purpose and then being astonished at the result as bystanders with almost no experience in rocketry raised their hands and tried suggesting slowing down near landing instead of speeding up. :)
 
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