Elon & Twitter

[sleepydoc]

Goya and MyPillow will follow suit.

yes. Twitter is saved

 

[Daniel in SD]

I can’t keep up with everyone’s different goalposts. Honestly. Now being profitable isn’t the correct metric? ‍ If the company makes money hand over fist (yes, that kind of profit) wouldn’t it stand to reason it’ll end up being more valuable than what he paid for it? If he realizes just half of his vision for it, it’ll be worth substantially more.

So many other assumptions you’ve made.

Only people who want to work in a start up are going to apply!? But nobody said this was a start up. But it has to be a start up or nobody will want to work there!?

Who says Elon won’t redo the code? How many times did Tesla’s autopilot team start over? Three times from scratch at last count I think, and multiple times in part.

I don’t get the lack of creative thought. The inability to see beyond what’s right in front of the nose.

The Twitter before he took over will cease to exist. He’s going to change it. Drastically. And that change started with unloading most of the employees and now hiring different people, many with different skill sets.

No, there are many very profitable companies worth much less than $44 billion!
My assumption is that people don't want to work startup hours without startup compensation (i.e. the chance to get rich through equity in the company). Twitter is starting with $13 billion in debt. I guess it all depends what Elon is offering new employees.

 

[Singuy]

No, there are many very profitable companies worth much less than $44 billion!
My assumption is that people don't want to work startup hours without startup compensation (i.e. the chance to get rich through equity in the company). Twitter is starting with $13 billion in debt. I guess it all depends what Elon is offering new employees.

If Elon can get people to work on rockets or cars when he was known to be crazy and have pitched that the chance of success is less than 10%, he can get anyone to work for him today when he has a proven track record in achieving the impossible.

 

[MC3OZ]

so you have to be part of the cult

We have tried to explain earlier in the thread, successful sporting teams have a culture, successful companies have a culture.

The best success comes when everyone is united, rowing in the same direction, and putting in a fully committed effort.

This can also be viewed as an absence of company politics, fewer meetings, more input, and better direction.

Elon's style doesn't suit everyone.,
,

 

[mach-edriver]

Finally in about 4-7 years the company might be re-floated to improve the liquidity of employee shares.

If the company is re-floated. we will then have a public valuation.

My hunch is Elon would still own > 50% of the company, and get a chunk of his initial capital back.

This is pure fantasy.

Twitter was not a uniquely positioned growth vehicle even when Musk first bid for it. As he himself said, he wasn't in it to make money but to provide free speech. Absolute free speech he called it back then.

Since then the value of social media platforms has cratered, and adding to Twitter's valuation decline were the months of Musk badmouthing it while trying to break his contract. So if it wasn't necessarily a venture undertaken with profit in mind, then today it is a vastly diminished operation. A week or so debt was being quoted at 60 cents on the dollar. Equity would face a much steeper mark-down.

So we now see a crippled capital structure and if that weren't bad enough it is headed by an erratic CEO who's managed to scare away most of the advertisers who are the pillar of the P&L.

The highly politicized (and sometimes obscene) tweeting, the back-and-forth on subscriptions, the abandonment, or at least sketchy application, of a moderation oversight body, are predictive of chaos.

Chaos can spur great creativity, but it can be overwhelming when the debt service is a staggering $100 million a month. That doesn't allow for the kind of experimentation that a bare-bones start-up can indulge.

Bottom line: whether there'll be anything left to IPO in 4-7 years is a longshot.

 

[Krugerrand]

No, there are many very profitable companies worth much less than $44 billion!
My assumption is that people don't want to work startup hours without startup compensation (i.e. the chance to get rich through equity in the company). Twitter is starting with $13 billion in debt. I guess it all depends what Elon is offering new employees.

Ok. We’re definitely not on the same page about where we see this company ending up nor Elon’s ability to motivate and inspire employees.

 

[MC3OZ]

I guess it all depends what Elon is offering new employees.

Elon will need to make it attractive to the employees that is the total package:-

• Interesting meaningful, significant work.
• leaning new skills, doing new things, building their resume.
• Suitable compensation, probably including some equity.
• Good work environment, people, place, vibe, team spirit.

 

[30seconds]

Stop it. He talks about Tesla and its path forward more than 4xs a year. He literally just had an interview earlier this month that was posted 83 times in the investor thread where he talked about Tesla’s future.

There was the huge CyberRodeo this year. AI day. Semi event is just around the corner. And numerous other interviews as well as the ERs, at which point I’ll now remind you that a bunch of people complain every single time that he’s on them. It seems people can’t make up their minds just exactly what they want of him, they just know he’s never good enough for them or their portfolio.

Oh, and about that dismal stock price, which is actually over $2500/sh compared to an IPO of $17/sh, he’s addressed that in writing and verbally.

Let me paraphrase: I don’t care about the SP and if you don’t like volatility don’t buy our stock.

How much bigger of a flashing neon sign does an investor need? Either get on the ride and prepare to hang on for dear life or don’t get on. Simple.

You really should be a sales person - “buy out stuff or don’t, doesn’t matter to me” is a winning pitch for sure.

Elon has a responsibility to Tesla shareholders. That’s what’s getting screwed with his wokeness.

 

[Singuy]

This is pure fantasy.

Twitter was not a uniquely positioned growth vehicle even when Musk first bid for it. As he himself said, he wasn't in it to make money but to provide free speech. Absolute free speech he called it back then.

Since then the value of social media platforms has cratered, and adding to Twitter's valuation decline were the months of Musk badmouthing it while trying to break his contract. So if it wasn't necessarily a venture undertaken with profit in mind, then today it is a vastly diminished operation. A week or so debt was being quoted at 60 cents on the dollar. Equity would face a much steeper mark-down.

So we now see a crippled capital structure and if that weren't bad enough it is headed by an erratic CEO who's managed to scare away most of the advertisers who are the pillar of the P&L.

The highly politicized (and sometimes obscene) tweeting, the back-and-forth on subscriptions, the abandonment, or at least sketchy application, of a moderation oversight body, are predictive of chaos.

Chaos can spur great creativity, but it can be overwhelming when the debt service is a staggering $100 million a month. That doesn't allow for the kind of experimentation that a bare-bones start-up can indulge.

Bottom line: whether there'll be anything left to IPO in 4-7 years is a longshot.

What? Twitter out of all the big names is the ONLY one in a unique position for growth. Why? Because it only has a user base of ~230M. 10x less than its peers.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Ok. We’re definitely not on the same page about where we see this company ending up nor Elon’s ability to motivate and inspire employees.

The banks should really sell the Twitter debt. If this thread is any indication they should be able to get way more than 60 cents on the dollar.
I'm really not confident either way with how it's going to turn out. I'm definitely looking forward to finding out though.

 

[sleepydoc]

What? Twitter out of all the big names is the ONLY one in a unique position for growth. Why? Because it only has a user base of ~230M. 10x less than its peers.

And social media is such a growth market right now?

Twitter is also distinctly different from its ‘peers’

 

[Ogre]

What? Twitter out of all the big names is the ONLY one in a unique position for growth. Why? Because it only has a user base of ~230M. 10x less than its peers.

Not only that, Twitter has always been the most poorly monetized platform of all of the big internet names.

Ok. We’re definitely not on the same page about where we see this company ending up nor Elon’s ability to motivate and inspire employees.

Also, old people here underestimate how popular Elon is with younger people.

People here “I’m a 20 year veteran developer and I wouldn’t work for Musk at Twitter“ (as am I)

Word to the wise. Musk isn’t interested in 20 year veterans unless they are at the absolute top of the industry and even then they will be selective. Twitter will be very much rebuilt with younger talent who are willing to put the time in to make a name for themselves.

 

[Singuy]

And social media is such a growth market right now?

Twitter is also distinctly different from its ‘peers’

Maybe not the saturated Meta but those with less than 1B users are growing.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not only that, Twitter has always been the most poorly monetized platform of all of the big internet names.
.

It is also true that any platform with more users was not for sale, or if it was for sale, the price was far beyond what Elon could reasonably pay.

So if the criteria was 100 Million users, or more, what other platforms were for sale?

Below 10 Million users, buying the company makes zero sense, better off just starting from scratch.

Also platforms with lots of users, but close to zero revenue are also a tough grind.

Twitter might not have been the only option, but no other option springs to mind.

 

[Krugerrand]

You really should be a sales person - “buy out stuff or don’t, doesn’t matter to me” is a winning pitch for sure.

Elon has a responsibility to Tesla shareholders. That’s what’s getting screwed with his wokeness.

He literally said it and it literally was written in an earnings report. Were you unaware? It was all the talk for weeks after that ER. And he’s since repeated it on a number of occasions.

How is that not being responsible to shareholders? He straight up told current and future shareholders that that was how it was going to be, and if that’s not what they wanted they should sell the stock/not buy the stock. That’s about as honest as it gets. Did you ignore his warning?

And he also saved shareholder’s bacon when he stopped the hostile takeover of Tesla and then again when he decided not to take Tesla private because many retail shareholders wouldn’t legally be allowed to hold TSLA stock. That was a two for one save. And then he got punished for it by the SEC and had shareholder’s interest in mind when he bought 20m worth of TSLA as a ‘payback’ for the 20m Tesla got fined. You’re welcome.

I can go on and list many other instances where he had shareholder’s best interest in mind. He specifically positioned the company to withstand a recession that didn’t come, but the pandemic came instead and we know what happened, don’t we? And now he’s positioned the company to withstand the recession that’s likely already arrived. Need more examples, or are you just so money fearful that you can’t acknowledge what he’s done?

I’ve no idea what the societal issues that brought about wokeness and woke culture have to do with Tesla’s continued innovation, rapidly growing business, and it’s impeccable balance sheet and cash balance; all of which Elon is responsible for in some form, whether overseeing operations or making sure the right people were in charge.

 

[john5520]

"Elon Musk's Twitter reinstates Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene"​

The stock is $167 right now, let's see if it drops tomorrow

Speechless. But I'm going to dig really far down in my pit of utter disappointment and say he's trying to pull in the 'Truth Social' crowd. If Hitler was alive, he'd probably give him a free account if it he thought it would help the stock.

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594908473875173377

LOL. Hotz is there making business decisions. I'm sure that popup is there to get you to login so they can track you and sell ads.
Good to hear he's going to improve the search though. It is very primitive.

 

[MC3OZ]

Good to hear he's going to improve the search though. It is very primitive.

I had a suspicion that might be one of the jobs George would be asked to do.

They might get him involved with application speed ups as well.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The difference is Elon didn't start this company nor was it in its infant stage. There is nothing particularly inspirational about Twitter that would motivate people as much as Tesla and SpaceX did.

At this juncture, Twitter is not unique either (there's plenty of social media companies out there), while there was something unique for Tesla (only EV company at the time aiming for long range, which is what attracted me to them) and SpaceX (Reusable rockets and Mars Colony).

We keep asking what Elon's amazing plans for Twitter are, and the two answers keep being:

1: Free speech absolutist town hall (um, that's either 8chan, or what twitter already was if you want a well moderated forum)

2: Banking-for-all in a communication app: That's either PayPal 2.0 or WeChat 2.0 - both of which already exist alongside many other competitors

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I would add to this:

3. Become an unparalleled news source build on the foundation of citizen journalists​

4. Establish a place where creators can get paid for their content via advertising and direct payment from subscribers​

​

​

So... Clone WeChat. Amazing innovation. Got it.