Elon & Twitter

[oneday]

Market price doesn’t really matter of course. Arguably beating it down makes sense since it destabilizes Twitter and makes them more likely to screw up and not conduct business in an ordinary manner.

This is definitely a naïve question.

Is the poison pill or threat of such still in place? Is there anything preventing Elon from buying shares on the open market?
Current price is 26% less than the buyout price.

Elon would have 2 days to report after accumulating. However he has multiple people/institutions that have all agreed to come along with him in private Twitter. Is it 3-4? Or 10? Let’s say it’s 10 - they can all buy less than 5% without having to file any SEC forms - there’s 50% of the company.

Obviously if there was this much buying pressure the stock price would go up, but it’s still less than $54 now.

Are Elon’s attorneys not telling him his odds of getting out of this deal are not very high? Every attorney I’ve read on the subject says his chances are slim.

 

[mongo]

But this is the guy who just sold a billion dollars of bitcoin he had Tesla invest in at a hundreds-of-millions loss (to name one of a dozen easy examples of him not always being business or personal smart).

Nope, only down $40 million or so based on current pricing. Break even is around $25k.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Nope, only down $40 million or so based on current pricing. Break even is around $25k.

It's not based on current pricing. Tesla had to unload 80% of it's bitcoin investment during Q2 - it already happened.

Here - will you take the WSJ word for it being more than $40M? Tesla Records $170 Million Impairment Charge on Bitcoin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Is there anything preventing Elon from buying shares on the open market?
Current price is 26% less than the buyout price.

I think this was discussed earlier. It’s illegal, and it’s called “poop and scoop.”

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think this was discussed earlier. It’s illegal, and it’s called “poop and scoop.”

And given him literally posting poop emojis about TWTR, buying into the now much-lower-price would seem ill advised.

 

[oneday]

I think this was discussed earlier. It’s illegal, and it’s called “poop and scoop.”

And given him literally posting poop emojis about TWTR, buying into the now much-lower-price would seem ill advised.

[insert poop emoji]

TIL: opposite of “pump and dump” = “poop and scoop”

 

[mongo]

It's not based on current pricing. Tesla had to unload 80% of it's bitcoin investment during Q2 - it already happened.

Here - will you take the WSJ word for it being more than $40M? Tesla Records $170 Million Impairment Charge on Bitcoin

Nope, because that is not the full accounting and write downs are an accounting thing, not current reality.
Write down is based on holdings and lowest price since the last low water mark, which was $17,700 or so in Q2. BTC is currently $21k or so, so it has already recovered 20% from that point.
Further, that doesn't take into account the profit Tesla has made selling BTC.
Initial purchase: $1,500M
Sold: $1,198 (in two quarters)
Ledger value (@$17.7k): 218M,
Current value @21k : $260M
Combined: $1,458M

 

[Bet TSLA]

It's not based on current pricing. Tesla had to unload 80% of it's bitcoin investment during Q2 - it already happened.

Here - will you take the WSJ word for it being more than $40M? Tesla Records $170 Million Impairment Charge on Bitcoin

Your postings on Tesla's bitcoin situation are just as full of certainty and misinformation as your postings on Elon's Twitter situation. You might want to consider silence as a way of being less wrong.

Me, I won't be noticing any more.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Nope, because that is not the full accounting and write downs are an accounting thing, not current reality.
Write down is based on holdings and lowest price since the last low water mark, which was $17,700 or so in Q2. BTC is currently $21k or so, so it has already recovered 20% from that point.
Further, that doesn't take into account the profit Tesla has made selling BTC.
Initial purchase: $1,500M
Sold: $1,198 (in two quarters)
Ledger value (@$17.7k): 218M,
Current value @21k : $260M
Combined: $1,458M

I know you want to believe that buying something for $1.5B and then selling it for $1.198B isn't a loss... but it is. Yes, you can pretend you're going to make it up with the tiny remaining coins left. But the loss is real. Deal with it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

This is definitely a naïve question.

Is the poison pill or threat of such still in place? Is there anything preventing Elon from buying shares on the open market?
Current price is 26% less than the buyout price.

Elon would have 2 days to report after accumulating. However he has multiple people/institutions that have all agreed to come along with him in private Twitter. Is it 3-4? Or 10? Let’s say it’s 10 - they can all buy less than 5% without having to file any SEC forms - there’s 50% of the company.

Obviously if there was this much buying pressure the stock price would go up, but it’s still less than $54 now.

Are Elon’s attorneys not telling him his odds of getting out of this deal are not very high? Every attorney I’ve read on the subject says his chances are slim.

"The Rights Plan is similar to other plans adopted by publicly held companies in comparable circumstances. Under the Rights Plan, the rights will become exercisable if an entity, person or group acquires beneficial ownership of 15% or more of Twitter's outstanding common stock in a transaction not approved by the Board. In the event that the rights become exercisable due to the triggering ownership threshold being crossed, each right will entitle its holder (other than the person, entity or group triggering the Rights Plan, whose rights will become void and will not be exercisable) to purchase, at the then-current exercise price, additional shares of common stock having a then-current market value of twice the exercise price of the right.

The Rights Plan will expire on April 14, 2023."

It seems very unlikely anyone on this forum is going to think of a loophole that lawyers responsible for multi-billion dollar transactions haven't thought of. I think the odds of him getting out of the deal aren't that small otherwise the stock price would be much closer to $54. Don't ask me how though! haha. And even if they are small it's worth it even for a minuscule chance of not paying $44 billion dollars for something you don't want.

 

[mongo]

I know you want to believe that buying something for $1.5B and then selling it for $1.198B isn't a loss... but it is. Yes, you can pretend you're going to make it up with the tiny remaining coins left. But the loss is real. Deal with it.

I did not say it was not currently a loss, I said the overal Bitcoin experiment is only a $40 million loss if sold now.

Here's the problem with using impairment as benchmark: It doesn't show present value, only lowest. And it doesn't track trades, only holdings.

Hypothetical:
I buy 2 BTC @ $20k for $40k
BTC goes to $40k, I sell a coin and recieve $40k, recouping my initial investment.
BTC drops to $10k, now I must record a $10k impairment because the basis was $20k.
Accounting shows a decreased value of the digital asset, but in terms of cash I'm already break even and could sell the asset for $10k ending up with a 25% gain.

Tesla's BTC is currently down more than the profit they have made, but not by much, and definitely not by hundreds of millions, nor $170 million.

 

[bkp_duke]

No one can argue with Elon's technical know-how and insight. But this is the guy who just sold a billion dollars of bitcoin he had Tesla invest in at a hundreds-of-millions loss (to name one of a dozen easy examples of him not always being business or personal smart).

Actually, you are incorrect on this:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

MmeAlexandraS wrote “on July 15th, and only 32 of the 296 funds even hold Tesla. $TSLA represented only 1.56% of all holdings, so significantly lower than its weight in the S&P 500.”, ”whereof ARK holds 89% of the 1.5M shares” This means the actively managed ETFs other than ARK only hold...

teslamotorsclub.com

Tesla, to date, has lost only about $27m on their BTC "investment". @The Accountant laid it out in pretty clear, simple, black and white.

You keep forgetting that Tesla has still about 20% of their original BTC investment (after 2 sales), and BTC would need to get to a price about 20% higher than it is now for Tesla to sell and break even.

 

[JRP3]

End it - as soon as possible. It's on his personal bankroll, so TSLA doesn't have to care if settling (by which I mean paying billions to get OUT of the deal) costs him a small fortune. Just get his strong technical and science mind back on important things - like solving the issues with the 4680 pack and getting FSD to work.

The issue is that ending it as soon as possible may mean buying Twitter which then means Elon will have to spend considerable time and energy trying to make something out of that poor investment.

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552324811153707018

If only Elon had the opportunity to buy one of the platforms enabling this.

On the other hand Bezos bought The Washington Post for only $250 million so just fixing it at the source would be more economical.

 

[ZsoZso]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552324811153707018

If only Elon had the opportunity to buy one of the platforms enabling this.

On the other hand Bezos bought The Washington Post for only $250 million so just fixing it at the source would be more economical.

Imagine, if instead of Twitter, Elon would buy WSJ, BI, NYP, CNBC and fire all the idiots who kept spreading lies about Tesla and Elon and turn them into a good old fashioned propaganda machine for Tesla -- call them the New Pravda

 

[Daniel in SD]

Twitter files a motion in opposition to Musk's motion yesterday.
This is good account to see all the filings related to the case (also, fun DALL-E 2 images inspired by the case).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552480889136975873

For all the crapping on Twitter it does seem like the best place to get good info about the case!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Good flowchart. Don’t know how the $2B works but assume it is a reading of the contract and some addition of two $1B charges.

Expectation damages also needs explanation (to me).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552738382337511424

This guy has a thread I have not gone through in detail:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552715452920594432

Contempt guesses (most entertaining thus most probable):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552749043507511296

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Counter filing from Elon’s lawyers (boring):

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22122947/defendants-letter-to-cm.pdf

 

[ZsoZso]

Counter filing from Elon’s lawyers (boring):

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22122947/defendants-letter-to-cm.pdf

and Elon's team got their wish for the date:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552996385464655872

It's early to tell if the judge is just throwing a bone to Elon's team to reduce chance of appeal, or thinks they are in the right.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

and Elon's team got their wish for the date:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552996385464655872

It's early to tell if the judge is just throwing a bone to Elon's team to reduce chance of appeal, or thinks they are in the right.

It didn’t sound to me like Twitter was insistent on October 10th even in their recent filings (though presumably would obviously prefer that).

Elon originally wanted February, Twitter wanted September.

More details on progression:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1553017629467705344