Elon & Twitter

[betstarship]

Elon has stated that he hated the "well known person" blue checkmark. He likens it to a Lord and Peasants situation. So he is doing away with that status and making a single "this person paid" status.

Standard SaaS based company is 20% uptake of mDAU (monetizable daily active users) if I do recall correctly. With 238 million mDAU and $8 / month...

...~$4.57B in annualized SaaS revenue without advertising already. He might have it fixed by Christmas.

 

[Dutchie]

So when you sell shares to buy a house, am I funding it?

well, yes, in exchange for part of Tesla. The point I am trying to make is that Elon and Tesla are so intertwined. Elon has so many shares and he would have kept them, were it not for Twitter. Selling the shares on the open market practically increasing the float. Now the float of tradable shares increased. Isn’t that kind of the same as diluting the market?

Just a thought. Perhaps I am seeing it all wrong.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Standard SaaS based company is 20% uptake of mDAU (monetizable daily active users) if I do recall correctly. With 238 million mDAU and $8 / month...

...~$4.57B in annualized SaaS revenue without advertising already. He might have it fixed by Christmas.

20% uptake into a -global- marketplace for public consumers is known as the "fremium" model, not SaaS which is a corporate business uptake model.

Fremium services tend to get a couple percent uptake domestically, much lower internationally especially for products who's functionality is available in similar services completely free.

If Elon can figure out how to pitch his "paid user" premium account status and not have to pull it out of use almost immediately due to rampant abuse of free speech in the form of parody that he didn't happen to like, you'd be looking at a market of a handful of million users, annual revenue (after giving Apple and Google their cut of the subscription price) of maybe $300M to $500M - far far far short of the couple Billion it takes to run Twitter even after firing half of everyone who knows how to run the thing, let alone the number of people who would be needed to properly service millions of paying customers who demand customer support.

 

[ThisStockGood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590982855387418627

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow... A huge 7%+ increase today. Yet, closing at $190? Meh. How can I possibly think like this? Well, to quote @Papafox recap today..."Growth stocks of course flourished. The NASDAQ closed up 7.35%, with Nvidia up 14.33%, Amazon up 12.18%, and ARKK up 14.52%. So why was TSLA such a laggard compared to its peers? I believe Elon was selling."

While I've been trying to allow Elon to be Elon, this BS has this Teslabull fed up. I would classify Elon's skill here as playing peek-a-boo more than 4D chess. I miss the Elon that tweeted "Who wears short shorts? ". Unfortunately that guy seems distracted ATM. Honestly, it's going to take so many more big up days before I feel remotely excited about TSLA. I'm sure I'll forgive Elon eventually.

 

[Todd Burch]

People will probably disgree with this post but the share price action speaks for itself. I don't see anyone here stepping up to buy the 20+ million shares that Elon is dumping on the market even though it's at record low prices.

Well that’s my point. Buyers are waiting for Elon to be done. He won’t be selling forever. I suspect just enough to get a cushion of time to get Twitter out of the red.

When he gets the ship righted at Twitter (he’s good at getting costs under control) and Twitter goes back to being profitable, he will have no need to be selling huge batches of shares like he has in 2022.

Remember, with Elon owning a huge percentage of Tesla shares, there was a risk that ultimately, at some point, he would sell those shares—and short term, that will have an outsized effect on Tesla.

It has a painful short term effect on the Tesla share price, but I’d rather he own a smaller percentage over the next few years as the EPS for Tesla cranks up and they start proving a higher valuation. It’s less risk to have ownership of the stock diversified.

 

[Atomsla]

I just wanted to chime in here to let you all know how I feel about Elon. I feel your pain, forumgoers. I myself have been hurt by Elon's damnable actions. He took me from, I don't know, a 40X increase all the way down to below 20X. I should've just put it all on a nice savings account. When will this misery end? How dare he sell a small portion of his own stock? He's hurting us so, so much. WHYYYY?!?
To those in a similar situation as I am: for the love of all that is good: STFU, stop posting until you've thought through the shameful drivel you've jotted down.
Gamble didn't work out? Your fault. Bad options trade? your fault. Stock down too much? Company is great, gonna have to wait for the stock to catch up. Elon didn't do exactly what you hoped he would? Time to read the first rule of TSLA-club again. Suddenly can't buy a house, or it's gonna have to be a smaller one? Boo hoo.

So, are you all gonna shut up about what Elon's done to hurt you in the portfolio? Thanks!

 

[MrMoo]

I just wanted to chime in here to let you all know how I feel about Elon. I feel your pain, forumgoers. I myself have been hurt by Elon's damnable actions. He took me from, I don't know, a 40X increase all the way down to below 20X. I should've just put it all on a nice savings account. When will this misery end? How dare he sell a small portion of his own stock? He's hurting us so, so much. WHYYYY?!?
To those in a similar situation as I am: for the love of all that is good: STFU, stop posting until you've thought through the shameful drivel you've jotted down.
Gamble didn't work out? Your fault. Bad options trade? your fault. Stock down too much? Company is great, gonna have to wait for the stock to catch up. Elon didn't do exactly what you hoped he would? Time to read the first rule of TSLA-club again. Suddenly can't buy a house, or it's gonna have to be a smaller one? Boo hoo.

So, are you all gonna shut up about what Elon's done to hurt you in the portfolio? Thanks!

Lol and what did you want to talk about then? This is the hot topic at the moment, the stocks basically at 52 week lows and underperforming the market. We have a lower P/E Ratio than AMZN who went up 12% yesterday with a higher P/E ratio and on top of that makes less net profit than us. The fundamentals are better than several companies and yet we trade lower than them. Are we here to make money? Or is this meant to be an echo chamber about how great TSLA is and one day when we are at 25 P/E while AMZN still trades at 100 we can laugh at how Wall st is so stupid driving their lambos and totally not getting how undervalued TSLA is.

This may be a surprise to you but I'm here to make profits, not call out idiots on Wall St and start calling any TSLA bear an idiot. Dan Ives, idiot, Troy, idiot. O and I must be a carebear too right? Everyones an idiot because they can't see the fundamentals and how great the company is.

Sorry for the aggressive reply but your post is somewhat aggressive in itself.

 

[lascavarian]

I just wanted to chime in here to let you all know how I feel about Elon. I feel your pain, forumgoers. I myself have been hurt by Elon's damnable actions. He took me from, I don't know, a 40X increase all the way down to below 20X. I should've just put it all on a nice savings account. When will this misery end? How dare he sell a small portion of his own stock? He's hurting us so, so much. WHYYYY?!?
To those in a similar situation as I am: for the love of all that is good: STFU, stop posting until you've thought through the shameful drivel you've jotted down.
Gamble didn't work out? Your fault. Bad options trade? your fault. Stock down too much? Company is great, gonna have to wait for the stock to catch up. Elon didn't do exactly what you hoped he would? Time to read the first rule of TSLA-club again. Suddenly can't buy a house, or it's gonna have to be a smaller one? Boo hoo.

So, are you all gonna shut up about what Elon's done to hurt you in the portfolio? Thanks!

Interesting approach, using fictional movie scripts for investment strategy. Do say more

 

[Atomsla]

Lol and what did you want to talk about then? This is the hot topic at the moment, the stocks basically at 52 week lows and underperforming the market. We have a lower P/E Ratio than AMZN who went up 12% yesterday with a higher P/E ratio and on top of that makes less net profit than us. The fundamentals are better than several companies and yet we trade lower than them. Are we here to make money? Or is this meant to be an echo chamber about how great TSLA is and one day when we are at 25 P/E while AMZN still trades at 100 we can laugh at how Wall st is so stupid driving their lambos and totally not getting how undervalued TSLA is.

This may be a surprise to you but I'm here to make profits, not call out idiots on Wall St and start calling any TSLA bear an idiot. Dan Ives, idiot, Troy, idiot. O and I must be a carebear too right? Everyones an idiot because they can't see the fundamentals and how great the company is.

Sorry for the aggressive reply but your post is somewhat aggressive in itself.

Me myself, I want to make lame comments, jokes and rarely post some little news tidbit before someone else does. I'm far from the most helpful contributing member here, but I do love reading posts about the things tesla is doing, all the latest news tidbits about cars, powerwalls, optimus, batteries, production numbers, demand, profits, growth expectations, subsidies, solar roofs, the list goes on and on. Its disheartening, but do expect most posts here to revolve around Elon's political comments, twitter stuff, infighting between members and other crap until the stock goes up again.

 

[Chenkers]

I take Elon's recent Twitter comment "My companies are positioned well" to indicate that he's raised enough cash from selling TSLA, that he feels he has enough on hand to get Twitter through this next phase. I'd naturally assume all his other companies were already in a good place, particularly Tesla. So this should take some pressure of TSLA if the spectre of further sales is reduced for now. Although I'd love it if he would categorically say he's done with selling for now.

The current situation Elon finds himself in with Twitter is analogous to the Production Hell period during the Model 3 ramp in 2018 or the Model S profitability ramp in 2013. With key executives resigning at Twitter, advertisers pausing and the balance sheet suffering, Elon's going to have a lot on his plate there for quite a while. He may end up sleeping on the 'factory' floor and be partially distracted for a while but I have confidence he can turn things around. With the speed Elon operates at it could come quicker than many people expect.

Also remember that Elon has effectively started all of his previous companies so the culture of each has been molded by him. With Twitter he's bought a company culture that is very foreign to the way he operates. Hard working 40+ hour weeks, no WFH, rapid pace of change, deadline pressure, fail forwards will all cause massive culture shock within twitter. This could actually be a good thing in weeding out those that don't really belong in the new Twitter culture and positioning it for success. A lot will also depend on the quality of new people that Elon can bring in, particulary those he will eventually hand over the day to day operations to. The sooner this happens and the sooner the market realises that Twitter isn't holding Tesla back the better positioned TSLA will be for the next wave up, presumably by Q1 2023.

 

[advocate8]

This number seems way too high for the revenue the company was making.

The expenses for this type of tech company must be mostly wages.

Slashing the head count seems like the only viable approach to me., In the current economic environment growing income from advertising seems like mission impossible,

Some processes that are currently manual may be able to be semi-automated.

Elon wasn't the only one who invested, I am sure some of these investors must have done some due-diligence. There has to be at least a vaguely plausible plan to turn the business around.

What I would have done differently to Elon is, not buy Twitter, and certainly not buy it for such a high price.

However, if I was stuck with buying it, I would be following a similar game plan, there isn't an abundance of good options.

This makes sense. Except you’d want to be slower on the trigger deciding WHO to lay off. You don’t just walk in and start wildly swinging the ax, there were def people dumped he should have kept and people kept that he didn’t need. Prob a lot more of the former.

 

[Paracelsus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590970255064854529

Thoughts?

 

[Freder Reeve]

It is a mystery to me that Elon’s stated life goals, sustainability and multi-planetary life, seem to have taken a back seat to his current project

I think he’s aiming to address an ongoing prob we silly humans face

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590970255064854529

Thoughts?

Judging from Elon's recent actions, this probably isn't good for us retail investors.

TSLA underperforming it's beta on up-market days has me concerned. That's not typical price action for TSLA at all, and if Elon wasn't selling yesterday then investor sentiment in the stock has been damaged. So when Elon posts something like this now it worries me, sadly.

 

[2daMoon]

FWIW, I'll add this to the morning's discussion

Elon Musk explains recent $3.9 billion TSLA stock sale

During an all-hands meeting, Elon Musk reportedly explained the reasons behind his decision to sell $3.9 billion worth TSLA stock.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interesting theory by Alexandra Merz

Tesla Shareholders, be the wise guys

Going down the rabbit hole, again

alexandramerz.substack.com

TL;DR

1) Elon wants Twitter to become an online payments platform (amongst other things)

2) Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments ($FOUR) commanded the first all-civilian SpaceX mission last year.

3) Shift4 market cap is ~$4bn.

4) Elon has been raising cash in excess of what many think is needed to complete Twitter deal and shore up financials.

?

 

[elasalle]

Thanks

Interesting theory by Alexandra Merz

Tesla Shareholders, be the wise guys

Going down the rabbit hole, again

alexandramerz.substack.com

TL;DR

1) Elon wants Twitter to become an online payments platform (amongst other things)

2) Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments ($FOUR) commanded the first all-civilian SpaceX mission last year.

3) Shift4 market cap is ~$4bn.

4) Elon has been raising cash in excess of what many think is needed to complete Twitter deal and shore up financials.

?

So Jack Ma style with ANT financials

 

[elasalle]

FWIW, I'll add this to the morning's discussion

Elon Musk explains recent $3.9 billion TSLA stock sale

During an all-hands meeting, Elon Musk reportedly explained the reasons behind his decision to sell $3.9 billion worth TSLA stock.

www.teslarati.com

But according to @Artful Dodger #WTF analogies, the above cannot be true he's ensnaring the shortiz #PREDICT #PREDICT

 

[UncaNed]

well, yes, in exchange for part of Tesla. The point I am trying to make is that Elon and Tesla are so intertwined. Elon has so many shares and he would have kept them, were it not for Twitter. Selling the shares on the open market practically increasing the float. Now the float of tradable shares increased. Isn’t that kind of the same as diluting the market?

Just a thought. Perhaps I am seeing it all wrong.

I think the collective good Elon's fixed Twitter platform will do us all will more than compensate for his TSLA sales in the not too distant future. Not directly as it might affect /TSLA, even, but just in a making the world aa better place-sort-of-a-way, just because of Elon's magic.