Elon & Twitter

[Ogre]

In spite of claims that Twitter is critically short of employees and FUD claiming it would crash due to the World Cup… no downtime.

Weird. It’s almost like people are just making a whole lot out of nothing.

 

[jabloomf1230]

In spite of claims that Twitter is critically short of employees and FUD claiming it would crash due to the World Cup… no downtime.

Weird. It’s almost like people are just making a whole lot out of nothing.

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Anyone prolonging the narrative that Twitter's downtime has skyrocketed, is saying so because they either hate Twitter or hate the fact that Elon bought Twitter.

 

[Ogre]

Great thing about EMSK, if circumstances change and require a new direction, he won't hesitate to drop former decision.

IN ADDITION, he also made some MAJOR changes to TWITTER's moderation policy some may not be fully aware of. These changes were good enough for him to delete his own Tweet after realizing he was wrong.

View attachment 876476

View attachment 876481

Elon Musk Embraces Twitter's Radical Fact-Checking Experiment

The project allows users to suggest short notes that add missing context to viral tweets. It could change how social platforms operate.

www.wired.com

Wait… how is this even possible:

We’ve been assured on this very forum that everyone with any talent or ability has left Twitter and cannot possibly be replaced!

 

[Ogre]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Anyone prolonging the narrative that Twitter's downtime has skyrocketed, is saying so because they either hate Twitter or hate the fact that Elon bought Twitter.

Of course you are correct.

Forgive me for posting a rhetorical question without a disclaimer. My newsfeed was flashing with multiple stories about how dire the situation at Twitter was so I felt compelled to call out some more FUD. Particularly since many here seem to buy so deeply into it.

World Cup risks knocking out Twitter after staff exodus, industry expert warns

The international football tournament that gets under way in Qatar this weekend poses a "real test of the resilience and capacity" of the platform, especially during key moments, with the departure of critical workers after Elon Musk's tumultuous takeover.

news.sky.com

Twitter has ‘50-50’ chance of ‘catastrophic failure’ during World Cup

‘It may crash’: How World Cup has Twitter at risk of ‘catastrophic failure’

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[STS-134]

In spite of claims that Twitter is critically short of employees and FUD claiming it would crash due to the World Cup… no downtime.

Weird. It’s almost like people are just making a whole lot out of nothing.

You're the type of person who would have accused Boeing's whistleblowers of spreading FUD about the 737 MAX, right up until the JT610 crash. You'd have pointed out that Boeing had delivered 230 737 MAX planes to 47 airlines and these planes were flying more than 8000 flights weekly and that you'd be fine getting on one, right up to October 28, 2018. The first crash took the right set of conditions: a failed sensor that happened to be the one the computer was using to adjust the trim, and a flight crew that wasn't informed about the MCAS system, in order to happen. It wasn't something that was very likely to happen on any given flight, and required a hardware failure and the optional AOA disagree light to not be installed, to really have a chance of confusing the crew to the extent that the plane crashed. But once it did happen, the results were catastrophic.

 

[Raisin45567]

Jack White Slams Elon Musk For Reinstating Donald Trump On Twitter: “Absolutely Disgusting”

Jack White, as you may remember, was a huge supporter of Tesla. He performed for Tesla employees in 2018. I think he runs rhetorical circles around Elon in the post quoted in this article.

 

[wdolson]

Interesting article about Twitter tech community notes endorsed by Elon: Elon Musk Embraces Twitter's Radical Fact-Checking Experiment
This might be the thing that may make Twitter useful for those seeking unbiased information (which seems to be missing a lot of mainstream media).

It has been working thus far, but what's to stop people who want to spread disinformation from hijacking the tool and posting disinformation in response to factual information?

That's a matter of perspective. I don't see the poll as fake. Easily manipulated if someone wanted to, perhaps.

Regardless, it gives Elon complete cover from everyone except the conspiracy theorists ("Oh, he was going to do this regardless. It was all just a sham!")

Online polls are notoriously inaccurate because it's very difficult to get a sample that is a good cross section of the population you want to check. Even if there were few bots participating in the poll, if the news of the poll got circulated among a minority who want to see Trump back on Twitter, that's how the poll will turn out. Even if 90% of the actual humans using Twitter don't want to see him back.

I think that's irrelevant for the very reasons you mention. Trump didn't ask to come back, and he's not coming back. I simply don't see a net positive gain for twitter in how Trump was unbanned.

What's disturbing about Trump's unbanning was how it happened. The haphazard method of it doesn't sit well with either a large part of the userbase of twitter nor the advertisers. It's just one example of many, and more examples will pile on as time goes on.

The real story being played out is that Elons vision of twitter doesn't align well with a largely ad supported business model. The move quick and break things model doesn't work well with an ad supported revenue either. There has to be consistency, and clarity of the rules being applied.

Elon knows advertisers are going to be apprehensive so his plan is to make up for the short fall with a subscription based model, but this hasn't been proven out.

Elon is desperate to get some income flowing in. When Trump was on Twitter he brought in a lot of revenue. He not only had fans following him, but he also had a lot of bots, and because he was president, a lot of people who didn't like him were following him for doom-scrolling purposes. Elon is trying to recapture that revenue, but the world has moved on. Trump is staying on Truth Social because he's the only thing keeping the lights on over there and he has an ownership stake. He has no interest in doing anything that makes someone else money if he can make money doing the same thing.

In warfare Hitler's Germany, Imperial Japan, and Napoleon's France all looked unstoppable at one point, and all lost in the end. The thing that destroyed all of them was biting off more than they could chew. IMO Elon has encountered his Stalingrad/Battle of Midway/Waterloo.

I've learned to rarely be 100% certain about anything. Some pretty weird things have happened in the last decade that never happened before. There is a sliver of a chance that he could pull this off, but I don't see how he does that. I could see all along how Tesla and SpaceX were likely going to establish themselves as solid companies in their sectors. The road had challenges, but the odds of defeating each challenge was at least fair.

Elon has a company that depends on users engaging on a daily basis and advertisers paying for ads to reach those customers. This is one social media site in a crowded market space. It has the reputation for a larger segment of their content producers delivering high quality content. It's been the best source for information on the war in Ukraine for example. There are also a lot of people who do careful analysis of issues of the day and present them. That was Twitter's angle over the competition.

But the quality providers are leaving. In just the last day several of the people I follow about the war in Ukraine have set up Substacks and are transitioning there. They are finding Substack is better for the sort of thing they do.

People who are adrenaline junkies who just want salacious dirt have plenty of options. Some may gravitate back to Twitter if their adrenaline provider is there to get them worked up, but if their provider is on another platform, they will stay there.

I only have a Facebook account because some friends had converted from email to Facebook only. I rarely log in there anymore because it turned into a cesspit and the friends who do still post there just post drivel to tell everyone else they are still alive. I only have a Twitter account to follow some people who are providing high quality information I am seeking. I have posted around half a dozen messages the entire time I've been there.

A large percentage of users on social media platforms are not producing a lot of content, they are following the large content producers. They will ultimately go where their producers go. If Twitter loses a lot of content producers, they will become nonviable. When people change social media platforms, they don't tend to come back.

I'm somewhere between 99% and 99.99% convinced Elon is going to fail with this Twitter venture. If he had gone out and started a social media platform from scratch I would be more optimistic. He's taken on a massive debt and spent a large chunk of his fortune on this venture that is alienating a large chunk of the existing user base on the platform he bought, plus the people paying for it.

For the $20 billion cash he had sitting in the bank at the start of this he could have started a new social media company and built it from the ground up the way he wanted it to look. You can get a start up going very fast for $20 billion.

Like I said, I could see daylight for Tesla and SpaceX as they struggled to become what they are today. They had a lot of hurdles, but there was always a way over the hurdles I could see. Both had unique products with no real quality competitors during their difficult phase. There is nothing of unique quality about Twitter than other forums don't offer in some way. Nothing is exactly like Twitter, but just like a Ford and a Toyota are going to have differences, they both have line ups of ICE cars and trucks that do similar things to one another.

I don't see a way where Twitter has a viable way out of this. Elon has said he wants to create the vision he originally had for x.com. He would have been better off rebooting x.com as a separate thing with none of the legacy of an existing site. I don't see daylight for Twitter long term. Elon may be able to keep it on life support for a while by pouring good money after bad, but I don't see where it will ever be profitable.

 

[T3SLAROD]

Twatter continues to thrive and again those who cried they would leave if X and X happened are still there….. Musk was right and continues to be right. Even his fired workers love being on the platform.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Twatter continues to thrive and again those who cried they would leave if X and X happened are still there….. Musk was right and continues to be right. Even his fired workers love being in the platform.

Yep. Never underestimate the “stern effect”.

 

[MC3OZ]

It's not about Trump being unbanned, it's about what this means for Elon keeping his word and running twitter by a fair and unbiased independent council vs just doing what he wants for his political friends - essentially making Twitter exactly the biased agenda platform that he pretended he wanted to get rid of in favor of a well behaved town hall for moderates

Trump was never likely to come back to Twitter.

So it is a gesture, that appeals to a certain portion of the population and some advertisers. True it could also lose some portion of the population, and some advertisers.

The gamble that Elon is taking is that if Trump never posts, and Twitter can be improved, some of those who leave might come back..

That is the business side.

The other aspect is strict adherence to "free speech" and not banning anyone unless it is absolutely necessary.

My understanding is, the US constitution enshrines freedom of speech. and also freedom not to speak.

All media and social media does need moderation, and insufficient moderation may have legal consequences.

As Elon tries to tiptoe though the "free speech" minefield, Trump not posing on Twitter is one big mine dodged

 

[EVNow]

Wait… how is this even possible:

We’ve been assured on this very forum that everyone with any talent or ability has left Twitter and cannot possibly be replaced!

Straw Man Argument (Logical Fallacy): Definition and Examples

Straw man argument is a type of logical fallacy that occurs when someone deliberately distorts or misrepresents their opponent's position.

fallacyinlogic.com

As such, this fallacy takes the following logical form:​

​

• Person 1 makes an argument X.
• Person B creates a distorted version of person A’s argument (the “straw man”).
• Person B attacks the distorted version of argument X.

 

[bkp_duke]

Calling people out for false claims?

Yup.




No, you claimed that:

The data was bad
AND
I knew it was bad.


Both are factually untrue-- so I asked you to try supporting these claims we BOTH know are untrue by either SHOWING the data was bad, or providing better data.

Which you seem to admit you can't do either of.


Then I pointed out that the complaints you DID give about the data showed you hadn't actually read it, or looked at its posted methodology.

Which made it even more clear your original claims were untrue.


If you get mad when people point out your claims are false, try making less false claims?

I mean, someone else just told us FACT CHECKING untrue claims is a GREAT thing, so I'm just helping out!




I did.

That's literally what the link I provided shows. It shows problems are 10x-30x more in the last 24 hours than the average # of issues in the last 1 full year specifically.

And yesterdays 24 hour report (which I also linked here at the time) showed it was 10x-40x more in the 24 hours that covered than the average for the last 1 full year.

If you didn't understand it, even after I've explained it twice now, that's kinda on you.




This is the second time you've claimed their data isn't good- while failing to provide any better data.

Or providing any evidence at all of their data not being good. Please show us the "bad track record" you claim.

Sigh, so hard-headed. LMGTFY.

OK, let's clear the air on this properly.

1) Do you understand that downdetector is not a "monitoring" service? In the industry a "monitoring" service has a VERY strict and narrow definition - it it's actual SERVER TO SERVER automated communications with the purpose of establishing uptime records. Specifically, someone has setup one or more servers that reaches out to a server(s) to be monitored (in this case Twitter) and obtains status on that server. In this case I would have a server setup to query twitter.com every 1, 5, 10, etc. seconds and verify that it is up. Anyone in this industry that isn't new will set this up from multiple geographically distinct monitoring servers, so that if there is a problem with a link between origin and destination (i.e. with an ISP fiber break, a down carrier router in the middle, etc.) we don't get a false positive.

downdetector IS NOT a monitoring service. By their own methodology here they are a "user reporting service":

https://downdetector.com/methodology/

That means what you are reporting is no more than a bunch of users that have gone to downdetector and reported something is offline or has a problem for them. Well, that seems a little bit ripe for abuse, perhaps, no?

Well, how might we sus this out, if it is possibly being abused? Oh, there's a comments section for downdetector on the twitter status page . . . . lets look at that and see what's in there. Oh my, lots and lots of Elon hate in there. Even some people admitting that they are falsely saying things are down just to make Elon look bad. Well, that doesn't seen like this is a very reliable dataset . . . it's user-reported, and the users are self-reporting they are submitting falsified data . . . hrm. Food for thought.




So, can we do better? Perhaps.

2) Twitter maintains and updates a status page. That page gives ALL kinds of insight into what is going on at the server and software/api/services level. That page can be found here, with more than 24h of historical data:

Twitter Status - Page Inactive

api.twitterstat.us

And if you want to go beyond 2 weeks of historical data, then you can look through the internet archive for that same page here:

Wayback Machine

web.archive.org

Now, it's not the most granular page, it doesn't give hour by hour stats, but it does give a ton of service-level data (i.e. what actually runs behind the scenes).

This kind of page is built by 3rd party software (we use it for Uber.com and some other of our clients). It's very accurate and reliable. The argument of "this can be faked so twitter doesn't look bad" doesn't hold a lot of weight with those of us that run hosting and software services.




But just in case Twitter might be faking their own data (and doing so long before Elon showed up, it would appear), let's find some reliable 3rd party monitoring sites that are NOT based upon subjective user reports.

3) Well, there are a decent number of automated status detectors (i.e. those that DO NOT rely upon user reports) that also monitor twitter:
Twitter Status. Check if Twitter is down or having problems. | StatusGator (no reported outages in the past 24 hours, AND they give historical data for Sept, Oct, and Nov 2022 - all report no outages)
Is Twitter Down? Check Twitter status and current outages (this one is also an automated monitor - also reports ZERO outages for the past 7 and 30 days)
https://istheservicedown.com/problems/twitter (this one is also partially user-reported, but ironically the huge number of downtime reports don't correspond to what is on downdetector - we are at historical norms on this one)
Twitter Down? Service Status, Map, Problems History - Outage.Report (another user-level reporting site, but doesn't show a large spike for downtime - see left checkerbox for past 60 days and hover over a day for the number of down reports).



So yeah, people are using downdetector to "report" that Twitter is down much more than normal for them, when in fact, all other non-biased and objective data seem to say it's running normally.


Care to retract your statements now?

 

[Krugerrand]

The point everyone is trying to make is that the obvious choice for H1B's is to click the button to stay on and then start looking for another job. My impression is that H1B's value job security more than most employees, something they're not going to get at Elon's Twitter.

Yeah, that’s not the point people have been making about H1B holders, but carry on.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is absolutely true. But why go through the fake "poll," and the business about a compliance committee? Just unban him and see what happens, since that was the intent from the first.

Because he wanted to.

 

[PeterJA]

[Twitter's Community Notes feature] has been working thus far, but what's to stop people who want to spread disinformation from hijacking the tool and posting disinformation in response to factual information?

Down-votes from the community of verified humans, not bots.

Elon's plans are pretty interesting if you listen to what he actually says.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Sigh, so hard-headed. LMGTFY.

OK, let's clear the air on this properly.

1) Do you understand that downdetector is not a "monitoring" service? In the industry a "monitoring" service has a VERY strict and narrow definition - it it's actual SERVER TO SERVER automated communications with the purpose of establishing uptime records. Specifically, someone has setup one or more servers that reaches out to a server(s) to be monitoring (in this case Twitter) and obtains status on that server. In this case I would have a server setup to query twitter.com every 1, 5, 10, etc. seconds and verify that it is up. Anyone in this industry that isn't new will set this up from multiple geographically distinct monitoring servers, so that if there is a problem with a link between origin and destination (i.e. with an ISP fiber break, a down carrier router in the middle, etc.) we don't get a false positive.

downdetector IS NOT a monitoring service. By their own methodology here they are a "user reporting service":

https://downdetector.com/methodology/

That means what you are reporting is no more than a bunch of users that have gone to downdetector and reported something is offline or has a problem for them. Well, that seems a little bit ripe for abuse, perhaps, no?

Well, how might we sus this out, if it is possibly being abused? Oh, there's a comments section for downdetector on the twitter status page . . . . lets look at that and see what's in there. Oh my, lots and lots of Elon hate in there. Even some people admitting that they are falsely saying things are down just to make Elon look bad. Well, that doesn't seen like this is a very reliable dataset . . . it's user-reported, and the users are self-reporting they are submitting falsified data . . . hrm. Food for thought.




So, can we do better? Perhaps.

2) Twitter maintains and updates a status page. That page gives ALL kinds of insight into what is going on at the server and software/api/services level. That page can be found here, with more than 24h of historical data:

Twitter Status - Page Inactive

api.twitterstat.us

And if you want to go beyond 2 weeks of historical data, then you can look through the internet archive for that same page here:

Wayback Machine

web.archive.org

Now, it's not the most granular page, it doesn't give hour by hour stats, but it does give a ton of service-level data (i.e. what actually runs behind the scenes).

This kind of page is built by 3rd party software (we use it for Uber.com and some other of our clients). It's very accurate and reliable. The argument of "this can be faked so twitter doesn't look bad" doesn't hold a lot of weight with those of us that run hosting and software services.




But just in case Twitter might be faking their own data (and doing so long before Elon showed up, it would appear), let's find some reliable 3rd party monitoring sites that are NOT based upon subjective user reports.

3) Well, there are a decent number of automated status detectors (i.e. those that DO NOT rely upon user reports) that also monitor twitter:
Twitter Status. Check if Twitter is down or having problems. | StatusGator (no reported outages in the past 24 hours, AND they give historical data for Sept, Oct, and Nov 2022 - all report no outages)
Is Twitter Down? Check Twitter status and current outages (this one is also an automated monitor - also reports ZERO outages for the past 7 and 30 days)
https://istheservicedown.com/problems/twitter (this one is also partially user-reported, but ironically the huge number of downtime reports don't correspond to what is on downdetector - we are at historical norms on this one)
Twitter Down? Service Status, Map, Problems History - Outage.Report (another user-level reporting site, but doesn't show a large spike for downtime - see left checkerbox for past 60 days and hover over a day for the number of down reports).



So yeah, people are using downdetector to "report" that Twitter is down much more than normal for them, when in fact, all other non-biased and objective data seem to say it's running normally.


Care to retract your statements now?

I don't want to extend this discussion, because you clearly explained the limitations of downdetector's methodology. But since it is a user-reported system, often local conditions may dictate why there is an "outage" . It may even be localized to individual users, who because either their ISP or their router is flaky, can't reach a specific IP address.

 

[bkp_duke]

I don't want to extend this discussion, because you clearly explained the limitations of downdetector's methodology. But since it is a user-reported system, often local conditions may dictate why there is an "outage" . It may even be localized to individual users, who because either their ISP or their router is flaky, can't reach a specific IP address.

Spot on. I tried to convey that in my first post, but someone (per his tradition) wanted to argue.


Downdetector is just a bunch of users that click "this is down for me" and there is no follow up on why. Specifically:
User's router is down?
User's company (if at work) may block the site?
ISP is having routing problems (I mentioned Comcast previously - and this is no joke - if there is a problem on the Eastern Seaboard, they are 50% of the time the culprit, their uptime sucks).

Etc. etc. etc.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

My understanding is, the US constitution enshrines freedom of speech. and also freedom not to speak.

What almost everyone seems to get wrong about the 1st amendment is it applies to the GOVERNMENT not suppressing free speech.

Has just about nothing to do with what a private company decides is proper conduct on a message board a wesite or an app.

This is why I've constantly mocked the free-speech-absolutists. Yes, you CAN do unlimited free speech on a platform if you want - and it's been done. It currently exists in the form of 8chan. Go have a look - THAT is unlimited free speech with only the barest effort to keep it within legal limits. And it's a cesspool. It's awful.

In contrast, right here - THIS message board has LOTS of human moderators who work REALLY hard enforcing all kinds of rules that greatly restrict free speech. I've had posts quarantined (justifiably I may add) for "Excess Snippiness". I kid you not. And guess what? This place is a pretty decent place to talk about stuff - most opinions are welcomed, moderates can find a place that feels comfortable and that is accomplished thru a lot of VERY NON FREE SPEECH policies. I think the whole concept of organizing around "free speech" as a principle is broken for an online town hall.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah, that’s not the point people have been making about H1B holders, but carry on.

I must have missed people saying something else about H1B holders. That's definitely what is meant by "viable choice". The choice you have is between getting kicked out of the country if you don't find a job in 60 days or continuing to be employed by Elon Musk. If you're an intelligent rational person, as most H1Bs are, your only viable choice is to stay employed by Elon Musk.

We’ve been assured on this very forum that everyone with any talent or ability has left Twitter and cannot possibly be replaced!

Quote them.

 

[Tony73]

That's a matter of perspective. I don't see the poll as fake. Easily manipulated if someone wanted to, perhaps.

Regardless, it gives Elon complete cover from everyone except the conspiracy theorists ("Oh, he was going to do this regardless. It was all just a sham!")

The poll gives him zero cover. If anything it enrages the left even more because it trivializes the issue. Personally I could care less if Trump is in Twitter but a poll is absolutely the wrong way to do it.

The poll is all about owning the libs and thumbing their nose.

He has a right to let Trump back as Twitter ceo. He could have released a mature sober statement before doing it but that would not achieve maximum agitation of the libs and that’s all this is really about