EU Market Situation and Outlook

[ev-enthusiast]

I came across this chart showing new car sales in Switzerland. There is a long tradition of EV friendliness in Switzerland so It is no surprise that Tesla is selling strong there, but is it true that it's almost only the BMW 5 series that is selling better than Tesla?
BTW found the chart here: Zulassungszahlen Schweiz • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

 

[bonaire]

see post #2186 by @hobbes with links to Norwegian registrations. (Thanks for the links!)

As of now there are 144 Model X registered, vs. 113 Model Ss (top color: Svart!)

MX 157 Aug
MS 146 Aug
MX to date this year: 126 Sig, 5 Founder 60 Prod. (production series ramp maybe Sept?)

Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

 

[neroden]

Oh-kay. It's pretty bizarre that the price is different in different *eurozone* countries. Couldn't everyone buy their Teslas in France and drive them to Italy or Germany? What's gonna stop you?

 

[EinSV]

Based on the time I have spent in Europe, I am under the impression that the ratio of Model 3/Model S sales in Europe will be higher than in the US due to the Model 3 being a more popular size for many Europeans due to narrower roads, smaller parking spaces and perhaps personal taste. In other words, and just picking numbers out of the air, if the ratio of 3/S sales in the US is 5/1, they might be 10/1 or something along those lines in the EU over the longer term.

Any thoughts -- especially from those who live or have lived in Europe?

 

[AustinPowers]

Oh-kay. It's pretty bizarre that the price is different in different *eurozone* countries. Couldn't everyone buy their Teslas in France and drive them to Italy or Germany? What's gonna stop you?

Interesting question. I have absolutely no clue as to why the same item should be more than 13K Euro more expensive over here than 150 miles to the west of where I am.
With a price difference this drastic, I would even start learning French to understand the stuff on the screen (if I was in the market for a P100D to begin with).

But in all seriousness, if the price difference is similarly high for Model 3, I can see many who will seriously think about buying their car in France. I mean, we are talking a lot of money here. And even if say the difference on a Model 3 would be "only" like 5K Euro, this would still be a massive saving just by buying in a neighbouring country.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Based on the time I have spent in Europe, I am under the impression that the ratio of Model 3/Model S sales in Europe will be higher than in the US due to the Model 3 being a more popular size for many Europeans due to narrower roads, smaller parking spaces and perhaps personal taste. In other words, and just picking numbers out of the air, if the ratio of 3/S sales in the US is 5/1, they might be 10/1 or something along those lines in the EU over the longer term.

Any thoughts -- especially from those who live or have lived in Europe?

I share your expectations on Model S / 3 sales ratio might lean a bit further to the Model 3 side in Europe. In fact this is negative for Tesla as Model 3 is a lot cheaper. Nevertheless I think it is realistic.

 

[AustinPowers]

Any thoughts -- especially from those who live or have lived in Europe?

Don't know about the exact ratio of course, but the general relation will definitely be very much in favour of Model 3.
Reasons?

For one, size, as you said. Model S (and X) are really too large for many parts of Europe. Only yesterday I walked past the Model S that I usually see every day on the P&R lot of our local train station. And guess what, since I saw it last time it has now "acquired" some "nice" yellow markings plus scratches on the passenger side of the front bumper next to the headlights and wheelarches. A clear sign of having kissed a parking garage bollard similar to one of these:

Second, or rather for many first, price. The Model 3 is priced in the range of what many people can afford or at least what fits into what they have allocated as a budget for their next car purchase. The market for cars priced like a well optioned Passat, A4, 3-series, C-class is huge in comparison to the luxury segment in which the Model S and X are positioned.

Just for comparison, sales in 2016 in Germany (Jan-Jul):

A4 / 3-series / C-class / Passat
combined : 154,435
A7,A8 / 6-series, 7-series / CLS, S-class / Panamera
combined: 15,367

A ratio of ten to one, even just taking into account those 4 model series in the Model 3 price range. And that is not even taking into account all the other popular models in that price range, just the 4 bestsellers. Whereas in the luxury-segment, there isn't much more really than the abovementioned 7 model series. Ok, perhaps some Maserati, Jaguar etc., but sales of those are more or less negligable.

 

[Troy]

I check the following three counties and the prices are very different. It turns out France has a 6,300 EUR government incentive applied to the purchase price before you buy it. UK has the same for £4,500. Even after these deductions, their prices are too low. My guess is, the incentives apply before VAT and therefore it reduces the VAT as well.

UK 134,612 EUR (114,200 GBP)
FR 139,200 EUR
DE 152,000 EUR

In France and UK design studio, under the black box on the right side, you can read about the 6,300€ and £4,500 government grants.

 

[AustinPowers]

I check the following three counties and the prices are very different. It turns out France has a 6,300 EUR government incentive applied to the purchase price before you buy it. ... Even after these deductions, their prices are too low. My guess is, the incentives apply before VAT and therefore it reduces the VAT as well.

Not trying to nitpick too much, but the incentive in France is actually two different ones (6,300 Euro and 3,700 Euro for a total of 10K Euro), which is applied after the purchase and therefor doesn't reduce VAT afaik.

The fact remains that the starting price including VAT is 139,2K in France versus 152K in Germany and 154,6K in Belgium and the Netherlands. All BEFORE any possible government incentives.

 

[AustinPowers]

Oh and I just checked, the price difference (in percent) is even larger when it comes to most of the other Model S variants:

So in effect, factoring in the 10K government incentive, an S60 for example is almost 20K Euro less (!) to buy in France than in Germany.

 

[Troy]

Not trying to nitpick too much, but the incentive in France is actually two different ones (6,300 Euro and 3,700 Euro for a total of 10K Euro), which is applied after the purchase and therefor doesn't reduce VAT afaik.

The fact remains that the starting price including VAT is 139,2K in France versus 152K in Germany and 154,6K in Belgium and the Netherlands. All BEFORE any possible government incentives.

It says already deducted from the purchase price. I used Google translate on the French web page (right click in Chrome).

 

[AustinPowers]

It says already deducted from the purchase price. I used Google translate on the French web page (right click in Chrome).

Unfortunately your image doesn't show in my browser. But from this I can't see what you are talking about:

It clearly states that the 139,200 Euro includes VAT, it doesn't say anything about something being deducted from the purchase price. It only shows what the effective price would be if you factored in the 10K incentive, which would be 129,200 Euro.

 

[Troy]

@AustinPowers,
I changed the image host from imgur to TMC. Refresh the page.

 

[AustinPowers]

@AustinPowers,
I changed the image host from imgur to TMC. Refresh the page.

Thank you, now it works,

But you are still wrong. What is meant by the "already deducted from the purchase price" is that, if you are eligable for the incentive (which everyone in France seems to be), the 6,300 Euro will be deducted from your purchase price (of 139,200 Euro in this case) directly. Whereas the additional 3,700 Euro are only awarded if you also trade in a Diesel - which has to be scrapped by the way, in order for you to qualify for that second incentive!

The image I took clearly shows that the 10K Euro maximum incentive only apply to the gross price, i.e. the 139,200 Euro.

 

[Troy]

@AustinPowers,

I looked into this subject some time ago and I know for a fact that the UK incentive is already included in the prices because it is the car manufacturer who receives the incentive, not the car buyer. The incentive has nothing to do with the buyer. Here is the source for the UK regulation. When I learned about the UK system I thought it was very smart. In comparison, the USA version is much more complicated.

Check out Nissan UK website HERE. Quote:

¹On the road price includes VAT 2011 rate of 20% and £4,500 government incentive.

I believe the system in France is the same. Here is Nissan France website. Quote:

* Recommended retail price including eco-bonus of € 6300 ...

In addition, on the Tesla France web page is says "already deducted". So I'm going to trust that as well, instead your different interpretation which you have not shown any source for.

The image I took clearly shows that the 10K Euro maximum incentive only apply to the gross price, i.e. the 139,200 Euro.

Where does it show that? It says after gas savings under the reduced price. In Google Chrome, right click to the web page and select translate.

 

[AustinPowers]

Not everyone uses Chrome.

It says "after gas savings and taxes". I admit I assumed that it meant only taxes. Mybad. Somehow it still doesn't add up though.

I mean, it says "includes VAT of 24.5K Euro.
The VAT rate in France is 20%, so this means the net price would be 122.5K Euro, the gross price 147K Euro.
Deduct 6.3K Euro from that, and the final price should be 140.7K Euro, not 139.2K Euro. 1.5K Euro difference.
I think I just don't get it, sorry.

 

[Troy]

Hi. The argument was whether or not the €6,300 was already deducted from the €139,200. Let's focus on that.

Step 1: Click here to open the French design studio
Step 2: Under the black box on the right side click on the link that says "imprimer".
Step 3. Read the numbers on this page. It says, quote:
" ... Before deduction of €6,300.00 Ecological Bonus, the price of the Model S is €145,940.00."
Step 4: On that page, it shows these 4 numbers and the equation is like this:

145,940 - 6,300 - 440 = 139,200

 

[AustinPowers]

Valid point, but that still doesn't explain the VAT of 24.5K Euro. Ok, perhaps rounding error.

Plus and more importantly, even at roughly 146K Euro the price difference versus the rest of the Euro-countries is still significant and not rationally justifiable.

 

[EinSV]

I share your expectations on Model S / 3 sales ratio might lean a bit further to the Model 3 side in Europe. In fact this is negative for Tesla as Model 3 is a lot cheaper. Nevertheless I think it is realistic.

Thanks. FWIW, if true I have been viewing this as a potential positive rather than a negative. Assuming Tesla is able to generate in the neighborhood of 25% gross margins on Model 3s once the production process is optimized as EM has predicted, a large volume of Model 3s sold in Europe could make a major contribution to the bottom line.

 

[AustinPowers]

@Troy: thanks for the Dislike of my post.
I dislike the pricing situation of France versus the rest of the Euro-countries as well.

I mean, honestly, can you think of one good reason why someone in Belgium should be paying almost 9K Euro more even after factoring in the French government incentive? I can't wrap my head round it. What's special about the French version of Model S - is it missing the interior? Some doors? Come on, what is that almost 9K Euro difference justified/justifiable by?

If I was about to buy a P100D here in Germany, I would definitely ask my local store staff about this. It's a valid question after all.