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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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I’m seeing a 3 just about every day / every other day now. Drove next to a black one w/ 19s today. Was pristine. No issues with gaps or alignments that I could see.

The only odd thing is that I haven’t seen a silver one yet.
 
Don't know. Among the reservation holders I know, as well as people I know who are at least interested in getting a Tesla, the recent push back of the Model 3 launch in Europe to sometime in 2019 has caused more cancellations, annoyance and shift towards other manufacturers than to S or X sales, primarily because those people I know were not in the market for an S or X to begin with and had set their hopes on the Model 3.

I myself am thinking about cancelling and getting an e-Golf instead - especially when I read about the manufacturing problems and defects that many Model 3s still come with (sunken hood, cracked glass roofs, non-responding car locks to app/keycard etc.).
Perhaps Tesla just needs a couple more years to learn how to produce cars at a constant quality level.

That I think is the main danger to Tesla as a company: they still have an edge over the legacy automakers because those haven't got their models on the market (yet). But the longer it takes Tesla to deliver the Model 3 (and Y) over here, the more competitors will come to market. And judging by the quality levels of the likes of VW, Jaguar, Volvo, BMW, Audi, etc., their offerings will be about as perfect as one can be right from the get go. And Joe Average car customer will not take defects/problems on a car in that price range as lightly as many EV enthusiasts like us here on TMC, who tend to give Tesla way more leeway than one would give any other manufacturer.
An e-Golf really? With that abysmal range? Why not consider the new Leaf? It's much less ugly now and should do 250km per charge.
I'm still on the fence. Haven't preordered the 3 as it's still a huge stretch for me, plus I'm worried EU prices will be higher than US. Gave myself 1 more year to by an EV. But nothing really compares to the Model 3 in design or value (range per $).
 
Hopefully by the time Model 3 hits Europe all those issues will be worked out.

The delay almost made me take the plunge to the S, but there's no CPO's available anywhere :( There are some in the UK, but I want LHD as I'm gonna move out of UK before the end of the year. So I guess the longer wait for the 3 doesn't bother me that much, yet.
 
The delay almost made me take the plunge to the S, but there's no CPO's available anywhere :(

Same issue here. Even if I wanted one, there are no CPO cars available anymore. They got rid of them last year during a special promotion.

An e-Golf really? With that abysmal range? Why not consider the new Leaf? It's much less ugly now and should do 250km per charge.

Yes, really. Why not a Leaf? Simple: beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, and to my eyes the Leaf, even the new one, still looks awful. I am just no fan of Japanese car design. Wouldn't want to be seen dead in one.

The only contender to the e-Golf to me in terms of tech and value would be the Hyundai Ioniq, but I am not too fond of its design (as well as some functional drawbacks) either.

And abysmal range? The realistic range of an e-Golf would be 250km with my style of driving, as tests have proven. Not what I would call abysmal.
 
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I’m seeing a 3 just about every day / every other day now. Drove next to a black one w/ 19s today. Was pristine. No issues with gaps or alignments that I could see.

The only odd thing is that I haven’t seen a silver one yet.
The only one I have seen on-road in San Diego was silver. But I don't get out much. Some friends took delivery of theirs yesterday.
 
Same issue here. Even if I wanted one, there are no CPO cars available anymore. They got rid of them last year during a special promotion.



Yes, really. Why not a Leaf? Simple: beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, and to my eyes the Leaf, even the new one, still looks awful. I am just no fan of Japanese car design. Wouldn't want to be seen dead in one.

The only contender to the e-Golf to me in terms of tech and value would be the Hyundai Ioniq, but I am not too fond of its design (as well as some functional drawbacks) either.

And abysmal range? The realistic range of an e-Golf would be 250km with my style of driving, as tests have proven. Not what I would call abysmal.
Can you get an e-Golf? In Norway which I'm guessing is handling about 50% of the world demand for the e-Golf they are now saying 9-12 months wait times. With a slower ramp of the Model 3 Tesla can send a few thousand M3 to Norway and still end up waiting for Q3 to reach the 200k limit. So it's not unrealistic that you might actually get a M3 before an e-Golf if you order in Norway now. Of course that doesn't mean that it's hard to find in Germany, I'm guessing you have looked into that.

Cobos
 
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Actually, I was quoted a wait time from order to delivery of three to four months. And after having had several VW vehicles their predictions about wait times tend to be rather conservative. The opposite of Tesla, who always seem extremely over-optimistic. I rather prefer the "Scotty versus Captain Kirk" approach of saying I will get it in half a year, demanding to get it in four months and then getting it in two ;)
 
February is not looking particularly good. Likely about the same number of cars as January (600-700). March will be better. Several ships that usually carry Tesla containers arrived in Antwerp en Rotterdam. Also mentions of delivery dates in the forums that I monitor are picking up. Still well below last December chatter. Hopefully we can end up somewhere around 3000 cars for this month to save the quarter somewhat. But I suspect a bit of pullback after the two bumper quarters last year.

One thing I noticed is that this month, we had 10 registrations in Norway from cars with a VIN date in 2014 or 2015. One more 2015 Model S was registered today. Is it possible those are gray imports? Ie, cars sold by a private party elsewhere in Europe and then imported in Norway? Anyone local who can verify? If so (and if the trend remains this high) then maybe we should start accounting for this in our numbers. Otherwise we'd count a number of cars twice.
 
One thing I noticed is that this month, we had 10 registrations in Norway from cars with a VIN date in 2014 or 2015. One more 2015 Model S was registered today. Is it possible those are gray imports? Ie, cars sold by a private party elsewhere in Europe and then imported in Norway? Anyone local who can verify? If so (and if the trend remains this high) then maybe we should start accounting for this in our numbers. Otherwise we'd count a number of cars twice.
Put in the VIN or registration number here: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen
Then you will see if it is a "used import" or not. Klikk on "Registreringsdata" and look at "Bruktimportert" (imported used). If it says "Ja" then it is registered somewhere else earlier, if "Nei" it is not.
Do also check "Registrert første gang i Norge" (First time registered in Norway) to see if it is just an old car getting a new number.
 
Thanks. That's super helpful. I checked a few and it seems they are all first time registrations in Norway, but are 'used import'. I think it is safe to say those are used imports then already accounted for. This means we unfortunately need to reduce Norway's numbers with about 10 this month. 71 instead of 81 deliveries (only 15 or so of those are S's!!! absolute montly low on the S there).
 
Thanks. That's super helpful. I checked a few and it seems they are all first time registrations in Norway, but are 'used import'. I think it is safe to say those are used imports then already accounted for. This means we unfortunately need to reduce Norway's numbers with about 10 this month. 71 instead of 81 deliveries (only 15 or so of those are S's!!! absolute montly low on the S there).
That would anyway be accounted for in the official statistic that will be on-line soon - tomorrow?

Edit: It IS on-line...
Bilsalget i februar
... and it does count 81 deliveries in Norway last month, but they don't count used imports in that number.
 
Put in the VIN or registration number here: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen
Then you will see if it is a "used import" or not. Klikk on "Registreringsdata" and look at "Bruktimportert" (imported used). If it says "Ja" then it is registered somewhere else earlier, if "Nei" it is not.
Do also check "Registrert første gang i Norge" (First time registered in Norway) to see if it is just an old car getting a new number.

Could you comment on a few that I have seen, such as 5YJSA7E48HF226505
which was registered on Jan 8 2018 and then listed as new-inventory March 5, 2018?

I have seen a few dozen similar to that over the last 6-months (MS and MX).
 
Could you comment on a few that I have seen, such as 5YJSA7E48HF226505
which was registered on Jan 8 2018 and then listed as new-inventory March 5, 2018?

I have seen a few dozen similar to that over the last 6-months (MS and MX).
What is to say about this? It is - as you wrote - registered as new on Jan 8 2018, and is therefor counted in the official numbers for Jan 2018.
It has 2.432km on the odometer, so it has probably gone as a demo/loaner car since then, and is ready to be replaced by the next quarter.
 
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