EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Spidy]

In Q4 2016 Tesla had really week sales and many car just got delivered in 2017.
Q4 2017 was the opposite. Great sales at the end of they year so not much to sell in January 2018.

The lower production at the end of last year and maybe still (Model 3 still ramping up?) probably is not going to result in that great sales for Q1, especially since it seems Tesla is still lacking inventory cars here.

 

[sweter]

European deliveries are taking up to 3 months, right? And 3 months ago as I recall a lot of S/X production line staff was pulled over to Model 3 line? So I'd just blame it on this and logistics.

 

[dc_h]

Europe is super weak this month. It gets even worse when the only decent numbers (from Norway) are actually due to early year deliveries that were likely meant for 2017 instead. Since about two weeks deliveries there fell of a cliff too. I still suspect it's mostly logistics and we'll see a healthy uptick near the second half of this month and obviously March too.

Agree on logistics. They emptied the channel in December.

 

[Johann Koeber]

In Germany for some time now, the website shows no used cars available. Some new cars for immediate delivery, all S, no X. I wonder whatsupp.

 

[avoigt]

In Germany for some time now, the website shows no used cars available. Some new cars for immediate delivery, all S, no X. I wonder whatsupp.

In the about last 6 months they did sold all inventory vehicles out. Watched at the web pages and did see it dropping and dropping.... I talked to the Munich store about it a while ago and they confirmed demand is way higher than supply so all is going out. Talking about the S and X BTW and not the 3 obviously. So, its a planned effort confirmed with the CC. Trying to get a used car is not easy either. Thats the beauty of selling a product everybody wants to have.

I wonder about the 100k guidance though and believe they under play here to be able to surprise later. Demand for S and X should be way higher than 100k in 2018. There should be further productivity gains at the line too. 1/2 a shift is not used anyway so they have capacity.

Everybody does factor now only 100 units for 2018 in but I predict in a year from now they will release higher numbers.

 

[Johann Koeber]

I doubt the 'more than 100,000' because likely they will not find the batteries. The 18650 seem to be limiting factor.

One reason more to get M3 up and running - which they will do.

Perhaps they can get more people to switch over to the new roadster

 

[RobStark]

Teslas Are Finally Replacing Porsches on the Autobahn

 

[AustinPowers]

Don't know about the "Teslas replacing Porsches on the Autobahn" just yet. Every time I drive along the Autobahn I keep a look out for Teslas. But they are still like unicorns. Last roadtrip, 1.000km all through Germany, I managed to see just ONE Model S, and that was a Dutch car. Needless to say, there were countless Porsches along the way.

 

[RobStark]

Don't know about the "Teslas replacing Porsches on the Autobahn" just yet. Every time I drive along the Autobahn I keep a look out for Teslas. But they are still like unicorns. Last roadtrip, 1.000km all through Germany, I managed to see just ONE Model S, and that was a Dutch car. Needless to say, there were countless Porsches along the way.

This is what they meant

"Tesla Inc. is growing even more quickly in Germany than electric-car sales generally. Registrations gained 75 percent last year to 3,332 vehicles. That’s approaching the 3,900 sales of the Porsche Panamera four-door, a close competitor to Tesla’s Model S."

Not versus Macan sales.

Not versus cumulative Porsche sales of the last 30 years. Which what you see when you drive in Germany.

 

[wnorris]

I see one Tesla a day on average in Stuttgart. My commute is short, but I have noticed the number of Telsa vehicles slowly increase over time.

I doubt this will drastically change until the Model 3 deliveries start in Germany. Tesla is very much a unicorn here.

 

[RobStark]

I see one Tesla a day on average in Stuttgart. My commute is short, but I have noticed the number of Telsa vehicles slowly increase over time.

I doubt this will drastically change until the Model 3 deliveries start in Germany. Tesla is very much a unicorn here.

I like unicorns and centaurs

 

[SwTslaGrl]

“We would be naive to think we can handle battery technology as a commodity that can be bought anywhere in the world” — Matthias Machnig
“If we don’t do it now we are out of the game for many, many years,” said Machnig.

Europe powers up in battery contest with Asia

 

[EinSV]

Final results on the Wiki confirm that Tesla had an outstanding year in Europe in 2017 with a 74% sales increase over 2016 (28,303 v. 16,226). Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Really impressive growth and seems to set the stage for Tesla to do very well in Europe with the Model 3 and Model Y, especially with the push in Europe toward converting to EVs.

Seems odd that the financial press has not covered this (to my knowledge) since it is an important and I believe unexpected development.

Does anyone think that the growth and opportunities in the European market and complexities around building in China might lead Tesla to break ground on a European Gigafactory before one in China?

 

[schonelucht]

The big unknown for Europe in 2018 is the Model 3 availability. We won't see that car this year (or only in very limited quantities). As positive reviews pour in from the US it may be harder for Tesla to sustain momentum on the S/X near the end of the year. The Y almost certainly won't arrive here before 2020, maybe even 2021 and that seems to be the earliest when it would really make sense to have a gigafactory somewhere in Europe.

But first, they need to ship us some more S and X's. January and February are quite dry.

 

[hobbes]

Final results on the Wiki confirm that Tesla had an outstanding year in Europe in 2017 with a 74% sales increase over 2016 (28,303 v. 16,226). Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Really impressive growth and seems to set the stage for Tesla to do very well in Europe with the Model 3 and Model Y, especially with the push in Europe toward converting to EVs.

Seems odd that the financial press has not covered this (to my knowledge) since it is an important and I believe unexpected development.

Does anyone think that the growth and opportunities in the European market and complexities around building in China might lead Tesla to break ground on a European Gigafactory before one in China?

Just found this on reddit, confirms Tesla´s success:
Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe

I have been seeing more and more Model S/X on the road constantly. But if you compare number of Porsches vs. Tesla sightings, you have to keep in mind that Porsche has been selling their cars for much longer already! Article above shows that the rate of sales has caught up to comparable models of German manufacturers. But they have many Models, so just comparing Model S vs S class sales doesn´t tell the whole story. Still, very impressive IMHO.

Factory in Europe would be nice. I think it would help in making the brand even more popular.

 

[hobbes]

Is anyone here following the preparations of You You Xue´s Model 3 road trip in Europe? I am interested, but I don´t find any place with the actual dates for all the stops shown on the map. How do you sign up for a certain location? Problem might be I am not a facebook member so maybe the fb page is not showing me all info. Any info much appreciated!

 

[sweter]

He's got problems with exporting the car from the US, so the trip is delayed. Currently the start event in London is scheduled for 27th of March, but expected to delay further (hopefully as I'm away from London until early April! ). But yea, seems the FB page is the best place to track.

 

[Spidy]

The big unknown for Europe in 2018 is the Model 3 availability.

In my opinion that is actually what is helping Model S & X sales.I see a lot of people in Forums who jumped on the S instead of waiting for the 3 when it became obvious production isn't working out that great.

 

[schonelucht]

If you really want to see the car, the best bet is to quickly jet over. Model 3 is no available in quite a few showrooms. Don’t even have to go all the way west. Obviously no test drives. Unfortunately also no info at all so far on important European modifications like the charging port and CCS compatibility

 

[AustinPowers]

In my opinion that is actually what is helping Model S & X sales.I see a lot of people in Forums who jumped on the S instead of waiting for the 3 when it became obvious production isn't working out that great.

Don't know. Among the reservation holders I know, as well as people I know who are at least interested in getting a Tesla, the recent push back of the Model 3 launch in Europe to sometime in 2019 has caused more cancellations, annoyance and shift towards other manufacturers than to S or X sales, primarily because those people I know were not in the market for an S or X to begin with and had set their hopes on the Model 3.

I myself am thinking about cancelling and getting an e-Golf instead - especially when I read about the manufacturing problems and defects that many Model 3s still come with (sunken hood, cracked glass roofs, non-responding car locks to app/keycard etc.).
Perhaps Tesla just needs a couple more years to learn how to produce cars at a constant quality level.

That I think is the main danger to Tesla as a company: they still have an edge over the legacy automakers because those haven't got their models on the market (yet). But the longer it takes Tesla to deliver the Model 3 (and Y) over here, the more competitors will come to market. And judging by the quality levels of the likes of VW, Jaguar, Volvo, BMW, Audi, etc., their offerings will be about as perfect as one can be right from the get go. And Joe Average car customer will not take defects/problems on a car in that price range as lightly as many EV enthusiasts like us here on TMC, who tend to give Tesla way more leeway than one would give any other manufacturer.