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A couple observations :
1) The factory was reconfigured end of July. It seems plausible the lower deliveries in Norway for this month are a ripple effect of the associated shutdown
2) Norway deliveries have been on a downward trend for the full year while more capacity was allocated to the rest of the European market. September could just be a confirmation of that trend
3) In light of the above, 300 deliveries for Norway/September can be considered good. In earlier quarters Norwegian delivery specialists managed to move that number of cars in just a few days. So it's certainly very possible we still hit a healthy number
4) Earlier I defended the thesis that Tesla was temporarily stretching out waiting times to open capacity in their factory to absorb (unforeseen) extra effort associated with the Model X ramp up. However, with wait times now touching 2016, I started to discount this thesis. But dramatically lower deliveries of this kind, if confirmed, could raise the plausibility of such assumption again.
5) Finally, if this number was symptomatic for the whole region then I believe Tesla would already have had visibility of it at the time of their last conference call. But back then they were still very bullish on their model S delivery numbers. This suggests the number we are looking at is a fleeting anomaly.
All in all, I don't particularly like the number, but it's not a big cause of concern to me.
Thanks, sounds reasonable to me. I would be more concerned if the last two months hadn´t been as good as they were.
I won't be dragged in a discussion of fast charging standards here. It's just that a German ministry is refusing to subsidize charging spots if CHAdeMO is rolled out with the first spot.
If German politics are to support electric mobility with tax payer's money, the expectation is to NOT exclude the vast majority of electric vehicles on our streets that are capable of fast charging.
Looking at the first two months of q3, we are up 25% compared to EU deliveries same time last quarter. That should make us pretty confident in Tesla meeting overall q3 target, right? Do you guys Think the numbers so far may be misleading due to front loading the quarter because of scheduled factory stand-downs during the summer?
Personally I am not that concerned. When looking around the forums here and there the planned deliveries for this month are still reported at a healthy rate. This quarter will be fine in Europe.
Hobbes re q1&q2 figures for UK the figures are the same in tables veh0120 and veh0128
205 for q1 143 for q2 q2 is very low because no d variant model s were delivered to uk until late july more came in august the vast majority of d deliveries will start in september which coincides with new 65 plate for new car registrations
The 1045 figure upto q2 2015 coincides with the figure from this websites figures
http://www.contracthireandleasing.com/car-leasing-news/uks-most-popular-plug-in-vehicles-revealed/
I also came across these figures for 1st half europe sales
European car sales data Electric Car segment - Left-Lane.com
I am not sure what countries they class as Europe
Your information is not correct. This is only planned to go into effect in 2019. So this means that for the next 3+ years there is no change planned for the fiscal treatment of BEV's (Tesla's) in The Netherlands. The situation of PHEV's will get much worse though, starting in 2016.
Ofcourse a lot can happen in three years' time. There will be a new goverment (elections no later than 2017) and everything can change again.
The same source reports 55 deliveries one week later. September may turn out the slowest last-of-quarter month ever for Norway. It will be interesting to see how the other European countries do.
I just now saw the google sheet Troy included with the wiki. I have been thinking about that for a while, too, because it is really annoying to constantly check the totals and google can do that automatically. Also the plots are great.
Did you copy the data from the wiki table there, so is it identical? While I like the google sheet, I do not like having two tables in parallel at all. Most people will not be updating both tables and we are going to end up in a mess. So I would be for finalizing the google approach and throwing the other table out as soon as we are sure everything works. Does the google sheet thing have an automatic history so we can see who changed what? Guess I have to play with it a bit.
What does everyone else think?
Did you copy the data from the wiki table there, so is it identical? While I like the google sheet, I do not like having two tables in parallel at all. Most people will not be updating both tables and we are going to end up in a mess. So I would be for finalizing the google approach and throwing the other table out as soon as we are sure everything works. Does the google sheet thing have an automatic history so we can see who changed what? Guess I have to play with it a bit.
What does everyone else think?
So should we be worried about Europe q3 delivery numbers or did they just prioritize other countries?
I'm afraid the European country we have the least information about - Great Britain, has a chance for heightened deliveries in Q3. The RHD P70D and P85D were scheduled to start this quarter and I would guess that may increase Great Britains numbers to equal some of the larger numbers from other European countries.
It is just one country and the very good numbers for Europe as a whole in July an August weigh more, so I try not to worry too much.
Does not make sense to expect a sudden drop after two very good months. 100 cars less to Norway can be sold to other countries instead. We´ll see.
I wouldn't worry about a 100 cars less. I may have misunderstood, but the way I read it, September saw only 102 Teslas registered in Norway until 9.26, which brings the Q3 total to something like 550. Normally it's around 1000-1500 so that would be a big drop. Of course, there may have been some pent up demand in RHD countries for P85D and 70D, so that could be an explanation.
So far Europe looks like Q3 will be another record, but just because we normally see deliveries in the 3rd month equal to or more than months 1 and 2 combined. If that is true again, we will have record numbers.
I would be quite surprised if Q3 global numbers would not at least meet their projection as we haven't heard of any issues with the factory save for that 1 Friday we lost due to the power outage. After Elon's last comment on these matters I feel like he realized how damaging it is to moral at the company and among shareholders that he usually over promises and they just barely make it (or miss it), so he would rather under-promise from now on. That's how I understood "winning must feel like winning".
I would expect sales in Norway to stabilize at a lower level than we have seen previously. There have been quite a number of price hikes over the past few months, due to the strengthening USD and weakening NOK. The effect of this is delayed by a few months due to the delivery times. Though we're only now seeing deliveries of the RWD 70, so this could boost sales for a month or two.
Something completely different: I saw a Tesla placement ad in a TV show here, which surprised me. The show is called "Hellstrøm rydder opp", and is the same concept as "Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares", only with Norwegian celebrity chef Hellstrøm instead. That surprised me a bit. I'm not used to seeing Tesla ads. Though I *think* the placement was paid by AVIS. They may have sposored the show with rental cars, and this is what they wanted the star to be seen getting out of. It was just a few seconds of him driving the car, then getting out and walking out of the shot.
Something completely different: I saw a Tesla placement ad in a TV show here, which surprised me. The show is called "Hellstrøm rydder opp", and is the same concept as "Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares", only with Norwegian celebrity chef Hellstrøm instead. That surprised me a bit. I'm not used to seeing Tesla ads. Though I *think* the placement was paid by AVIS. They may have sposored the show with rental cars, and this is what they wanted the star to be seen getting out of. It was just a few seconds of him driving the car, then getting out and walking out of the shot.
The UK numbers should be good. I picked up my car last week and the main London delivery centre was maxed out. Sounds the same at the other sites. Someone mentioned a Tesla employee stating they have 600 cars to hand over in the next few weeks. My car was no 1400 ish in UK and there have definitely been over 2000 logged at order stage from other conversations. It looks like Manchester service centre will open this Autumn/Winter so more delivery capacity and now Tilburg reassembly capacity has doubled.
Very good to hear. Pent up RHD deliveries could certainly account for a lower feed into Norway. Also interested to hear you are approx 1400 in the UK. I am too lazy right now, but someone could try to correlate this with the delivery numbers we've assumed for now.
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