EU Market Situation and Outlook

[schonelucht]

Some tidbits around the Benelux while we hold our breath for the reveal.

- Flanders introduces an incentive worth up to 5000 EUR for new purchases for green cars. It's presented as a move away from diesel in the press. Could temporarily dampen demand this year but should be a net positive starting next year
- FastNed, a Dutch fast charging startup announces a deal with Nissan to copy the business model of Tesla Supercharging : free charging with every new car, albeit just for 2 years. While supercharging still has the edge in terms of peak power (135kW vs 50kW now/100kW next year), FastNed has the better density (38 locations in an area just larger than Maryland, projected to grow to 50 by end of year). It would be a win for all parties if Tesla entered into a comparable agreement with them one day.

 

[mwulff]

Expect high sales numbers for Denmark. The government has decided that some sort of tax will go into effect on 31.12.2015 so everybody who wants one is scrambling to get one right now.

The precise tax is unknown as of this time.

 

[Benz]

Expect high sales numbers for Denmark. The government has decided that some sort of tax will go into effect on 31.12.2015 so everybody who wants one is scrambling to get one right now.

The precise tax is unknown as of this time.

Is there a possibility that they might delay it for 1 year?
That it might go into effect on 31.12.2016 instead of go into effect on 31.12.2015?

Because it's not known yet, they might need more time to work things out?
That's what I thought, but I could be wrong of course.

 

[mwulff]

Is there a possibility that they might delay it for 1 year?
That it might go into effect on 31.12.2016 instead of go into effect on 31.12.2015?

Because it's not known yet, they might need more time to work things out?
That's what I thought, but I could be wrong of course.

The government has stated that the energy efficiency of an electric vehicle will be converted to km/litre and used as a metric for taxing electric vehicles. I expect price jumps somewhere between 50-200% on a standard Model S.

Background info in danish:

http://marketnews.dk/opinion/blogs/view/17/3558/regeringen_aendrer_registreringsafgiften.html

Also this has not been voted on in Folketinget and is therefore not law yet. There is a small hope that the current government can't swing enough votes to make this a reality.

 

[Gerardf]

I had a dinner with some business friends yesterday. About 12 people on the table. Two just ordered a Model-X, one was about to.

These people were not advised / convinced by me, also did not have EV experience earlier. As far as I checked none of them explored this forum. At least one of them would not have have considered buying an EV as recent as a year ago, now he 'saw so many MS in Switserland', got impressed by the spec's and decided to jump in and ordered a full-optioned MX.

Actually several of the others at the table seemed more-than-just-interested in getting a Tesla as well. I expected to see Tesla to get much more acceptance in Europe , but I was still very positively surprised how quickly things move now and to my opinion this bodes very well for Tesla in Europe.

 

[schonelucht]

These people were not advised / convinced by me, also did not have EV experience earlier. As far as I checked none of them explored this forum. At least one of them would not have have considered buying an EV as recent as a year ago, now he 'saw so many MS in Switserland', got impressed by the spec's and decided to jump in and ordered a full-optioned MX.

There must be a misunderstanding here somewhere. No one in Europe has been invited to order an MX yet.

 

[Gerardf]

There must be a misunderstanding here somewhere. No one in Europe has been invited to order an MX yet.

You are correct.

I should have said : reserved. However they considered it a commitment to buy and called it 'an order'.

 

[pGo]

Does anyone have updated numbers from Norway? Thanks.

Overall, there doesn't seem a last minute rush for deliveries across the board, hence, the numbers should be in line or better.

 

[hobbes]

After a lot of work by Troy and TMS we have updated the wiki table to a google spreadsheet, which calculates the totals on its own and produces wonderful self-updating plots. If you are going to add new numbers, please use only the new table. I put a short HOWTO on the wiki page. Please note that any changes you make to the table are effective immediately without needing to press a 'Save' or 'Commit' button! If you´re unsure, just post the numbers here and we´ll put it into the spreadsheet.

Here´s a preview of what Google can do for us:

 

[Quant]

After a lot of work by Troy and TMS we have updated the wiki table to a google spreadsheet, which calculates the totals on its own and produces wonderful self-updating plots. If you are going to add new numbers, please use only the new table. I put a short HOWTO on the wiki page. Please note that any changes you make to the table are effective immediately without needing to press a 'Save' or 'Commit' button!

Here´s a preview of what Google can do for us:

Beautiful ! Thanks !

Seems to me like Norway demand will not sustain for very long. Germany and the UK will need to pick up quite a bit to keep overall Europe growth rate robust, at current levels of % growth, YOY.

 

[matbl]

September number for Sweden: 85
Source: http://www.bilsweden.se/storage/cms/835e9cf975104df88a04684a14ef1ffd/d4aaaacff6b24198b3fc6416ace466de/pdf/E1274A1F217FD67A85358B9C32072773AB7009E0/PressRelease1509.pdf?MediaArchive_ForceDownload=true&PropertyName=File1&ValueIndex=0

Note:
Once again Tesla beats Porsche (combined all models). Porsche september: 74. And land rover (combined) for that matter.
Tesla sells on par with for example BMW X3.
Cars that it's often compared with such as BMW 6/7, Mercedes S-class, Audi A7/A8, etc are so few that they are not even in the tables.

 

[schonelucht]

the Netherlands reports 136 new registrations for September which compare to 276 for June 2015. For the full quarter, we are at 382 deliveries. That's down from last year (390) and down from last quarter (478).

We have three European countries with a disappointing quarter (Sweden and the Netherlands confirmed, Norway virtually guaranteed). Hopefully the earlier speculation that the factory mainly produced RHDs in July/Aug turns out to be true. If only Sweden was still a RHD country, we would have known for sure

 

[Benz]

the Netherlands reports 136 new registrations for September which compare to 276 for June 2015. For the full quarter, we are at 382 deliveries. That's down from last year (390) and down from last quarter (478).

We have three European countries with a disappointing quarter (Sweden and the Netherlands confirmed, Norway virtually guaranteed). Hopefully the earlier speculation that the factory mainly produced RHDs in July/Aug turns out to be true. If only Sweden was still a RHD country, we would have known for sure

It's 163, not 136 !!!

Check again.

 

[schonelucht]

It's 163, not 136 !!!

Check again.

That's very weird, because they list 1267 as total delivered and we had 1134 up until August in the table. 1267-1134 = 136. Obviously something went wrong in the accounting.

Edit : ok I double checked, the totals as listed from dealersupportnet.nl are not correct. The real number is indeed 163. The real total delivered 1311 and not 1267. Which means we have 409 deliveries this quarter. Still down from last quarter but up from last year!

 

[Matias]

Finland September 18.

Source http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1077/syyskuu_2015.pdf

Page 5

 

[mrdoubleb]

Austria is 54 for September. Added it to the wiki, but the site does not seem to refresh. I am sure it's user error, I don't really use Google services, so if someone could take a look...

 

[Newb]

It's 163, not 136 !!!

Check again.

And with that, Q3 2015 (409) in the Netherlands is up 5% vis-a-vis Q3 2014 (390).

- - - Updated - - -

Austria is 54 for September. Added it to the wiki, but the site does not seem to refresh. I am sure it's user error, I don't really use Google services, so if someone could take a look...

So in total, 163 in Austria for Q3 2015! That is up 560% yoy! (Q3 2014= 29). Plus, it's Austria's best quarter ever.

- - - Updated - - -

Finland September 18.

Source http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1077/syyskuu_2015.pdf

Page 5

61 for Q3 then. Again, best quarter ever for Finland, too. Up 320% for Q3 yoy.

 

[hobbes]

Austria is 54 for September. Added it to the wiki, but the site does not seem to refresh. I am sure it's user error, I don't really use Google services, so if someone could take a look...

Yesterday I was having this problem, too. It takes 5 minutes to refresh. Troy already added a note now which is displayed with the change log.

 

[Brunel]

Some UK folk are trying to extrapolate UK numbers and delivery timescales at the following link (not sure how accurate their figures are since my #1400 was Sept 24th) :

How Many UK Model S are there? | Page 6 | Speak EV - Electric Car Forums

Showing their estimates below:

UK # Days Delivery
1644 0 22/09/2015
1739 13 04/10/2015
1746 14 05/10/2015
1855 28 20/10/2015
1956 42 02/11/2015
2050 54 15/11/2015
2184 72 02/12/2015
2234 78 09/12/2015
2350 94 24/12/2015

2446 107 06/01/2016
2484 112 11/01/2016
2519 116 16/01/2016

 

[Troy]

Wow, they grabbed 3rd place for the quarter from Germany!

As for UK, there were new numbers that I´ll use for an estimate for Q2: Tesla is not reported as an individual brand but falls under the "other imports" category in this spreadsheet. For Q1 we know the actual registrations of 216 out of 509 other imports. Using that ratio on this quarter's (172 for June and 1044 for the quarter) other imports, I get 73 for June and 443 for 2015 total. So for Q2 that is 443-216=227. I'll split that up into 75 for each month in Q2 to keep it simple.
So in total (with only single-digit countries missing), looks like we stay just below 4000 registrations for Q2 (3934, see wiki).

For UK I have found data on gov.uk website that mentions "Tesla" as the make. The data is HERE on table #128. It shows quarterly total registered cars by make and model. To find out new registrations for a quarter, you have to subtract previous quarters numbers. For example, at the end of Q2, 1049 Tesla cars were registered (excluding the 47 roadsters). Previous quarter the total was 905. Therefore 144 new cars were added in Q2. I added the rows you see in blue. The columns in red are not important. "Great Britain" and "United Kingdom" are not exactly the same thing. They are switching stats from GB to UK. Just ignore GB columns. The 216 you found for "other imports" must include 11 other cars.