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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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just a quick update on quite encouraging new Model S registration numbers for September 2015 from Germany:

133 Model S got delivered and registered in September (+138% vis-a-vis September 2014) and thus 395 Model S in Q3, which is thereby the second-best quarter ever in GER. That was also the first quarter ever of three months in a row with three digit registration numbers.

With regards to the competition in the premium/luxury sedan segment in September: Only 98 newly registered Porsche Panameras, 129 BMW 7-series, but 497 MB S-Class, 277 MB CLS-Class, 216 BMW 6 series, 273 A8/S8 and 235 A7/S7/RS7.

Interesting details in the statistics: Thus far, 1091 new Model S got registered in Germany and 82% of those are AWD, i.e. D-, models. We Germans seem to have been waiting for the dual motor drivetrain. Furthermore, if you only count the "private sales" (so all sales except for fleet customers, self-employed and business customers, company cars and equivalent), then the Tesla Model S is the fourth-best selling luxury sedan in Germany thus far, and might end the year on third spot right after MB S-Class and MB CLS-Class, thereby being currently more popular in Germany than BMW 7 or 6 series or Audi A8/S8 or Porsche Panamera or all Bentleys, Maseratis, Aston Martins and such altogether.
 
Furthermore, if you only count the "private sales" (so all sales except for fleet customers, self-employed and business customers, company cars and equivalent), then the Tesla Model S is the fourth-best selling luxury sedan in Germany thus far, and might end the year on third spot right after MB S-Class and MB CLS-Class, thereby being currently more popular in Germany than BMW 7 or 6 series or Audi A8/S8 or Porsche Panamera or all Bentleys, Maseratis, Aston Martins and such altogether.

Pretty amazing... Did you take all of that from the KBA (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) data published today? That´s for cumulative 2015 data, right?
 
Pretty amazing... Did you take all of that from the KBA (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) data published today? That´s for cumulative 2015 data, right?

yap, exactly. KBA and cumulative ytd. Indeed amazing and shows how much well-off private customers in Germany actually like the Model S and prefer it over the BMW 6 series or Porsche Panamera which get much more attention in the automotive magazines and in all the ads around us in the cities, airports, train stations, TV, cinema, etc. . I could name you like a dozen spots where I've seen advertisement (mostly posters) for the BMW 6 series or Porsche Panamera lately.

EDIT: If anyone is interested in those numbers of "private new car sales cumulative ytd" in the luxury sedan segment in Germany, here's the full list I made based on the numbers provided by the public authority:

ALPINA B7 BITURBO 0
AUDI A7, S7, RS7 470
AUDI A8, S8 131
BENTLEY CONTINENTAL 91
BENTLEY MULSANNE 2
BMW 6ER 262
BMW 7ER 79
CADILLAC CTS 2
JAGUAR XJ 18
LEXUS LS 3
MASERATI QUATTROPORTE 29
MAYBACH 0
MERCEDES CL-KLASSE 4
MERCEDES CLS 594
MERCEDES S-KLASSE 762
PORSCHE PANAMERA 221
ROLLS-ROYCE GHOST 1
ROLLS-ROYCE PHANTOM 2
ROLLS-ROYCE WRAITH 5
TESLA MODEL S 340
VW PHAETON 208
ZUSAMMEN 3229
 
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So with Europe having 500 deliveries less but Tesla still making guidance, where did all they all go? Right hand drive markets? California? China?

Looking forward to next quarter, if Tesla wants to deliver 16 500 cars, assuming 1500 model X's going straight to the us that still means an increase of 25% on the model S. For Europe, that's 4500-5000 units. From the forums I don't feel like there is strong chatter about European deliveries in October yet so it may come down to an end of year push..
 
The Dutch Parliament has decided by a majority of vote (82 for, 68 against) that the government has to construct a plan to suppurt and encourage Plug-In vehicles (both new and used) for private people. This plan will be constructed by the E-Team (they work at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment). The plan will also include the expansion of charging infrastructure. I think that we will learn more about this plan in the next few weeks (probably in November).

Members of the Dutch Parliament now understand that more has to be done to get less air-pollution.
 
just a quick update on quite encouraging new Model S registration numbers for September 2015 from Germany:

133 Model S got delivered and registered in September (+138% vis-a-vis September 2014) and thus 395 Model S in Q3, which is thereby the second-best quarter ever in GER. That was also the first quarter ever of three months in a row with three digit registration numbers.

With regards to the competition in the premium/luxury sedan segment in September: Only 98 newly registered Porsche Panameras, 129 BMW 7-series, but 497 MB S-Class, 277 MB CLS-Class, 216 BMW 6 series, 273 A8/S8 and 235 A7/S7/RS7.

Interesting details in the statistics: Thus far, 1091 new Model S got registered in Germany and 82% of those are AWD, i.e. D-, models. We Germans seem to have been waiting for the dual motor drivetrain. Furthermore, if you only count the "private sales" (so all sales except for fleet customers, self-employed and business customers, company cars and equivalent), then the Tesla Model S is the fourth-best selling luxury sedan in Germany thus far, and might end the year on third spot right after MB S-Class and MB CLS-Class, thereby being currently more popular in Germany than BMW 7 or 6 series or Audi A8/S8 or Porsche Panamera or all Bentleys, Maseratis, Aston Martins and such altogether.

Just a quick note. BMW 7-series is right in the middle of a model change. I think you can't get the either the old one or the new one at the moment. So low numbers for it is expected.
 
Just a quick note. BMW 7-series is right in the middle of a model change. I think you can't get the either the old one or the new one at the moment. So low numbers for it is expected.

Fully agree. Yet I find it most amazing that the Panamera is losing to the Model S. We all need to remember that the Cayenne is, what transformed Prosche from 19k cars a year to +100k cars a year. If the Model X starts to eat into the Cayenne market share as much as the Model S did with the Panamera, I think we are in very good shape. Especially in Germany.
 
So with Europe having 500 deliveries less but Tesla still making guidance, where did all they all go? Right hand drive markets? California? China?

California numbers for Sep were very good, but US as a whole rather flat compared to Q2, see my post here and the sources:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 4

So this doesn´t seem to make up for 500 cars. Likely right hand drive countries I agree.
 
California numbers for Sep were very good, but US as a whole rather flat compared to Q2, see my post here and the sources:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 4

So this doesn´t seem to make up for 500 cars. Likely right hand drive countries I agree.

Hope you saw the article posted in Yahoo Finance about sales by resellers in Germany ?

So, are we saying that Q3 was not just a production limitation but also a demand issue ? I am a bit foggy here ....
 
Hope you saw the article posted in Yahoo Finance about sales by resellers in Germany ?

So, are we saying that Q3 was not just a production limitation but also a demand issue ? I am a bit foggy here ....

Some people from the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium and other countries try to sell their used cars in Germany because used car prices for Model S is higher in Germany compared to their original country.
The amount of these cars from abroad is almost one third of the cars currently offered online!
If you want to buy a used Model S in Germany, you would do the same and try to find a cheap offer in e.g. Norway.

Some of the other cars seem to be duplicates (duplicate 1, duplicate 2) or just some crazy people wanting to sell e.g. 2 BRABUS (1, 2) Model S for about 200 000 EUR (and one of these Model S is offered directly by the tuning company BRABUS: Brabus GmbH, Brabus-Allee 1, 46240 Bottrop, Deutschland Tel.: +49 (0)2041 370919291).
Looks like these people just put their car online to see what will happen.

And yes, it looks like there are some used car Ferrari and Maserati dealers in Germany that have 2 or three used Model S cars on their lot.
These dealers have a lot of Porsche, Bentley, Ferrari and Maserati cars on their lot together with the Teslas.
I have the impression that Teslas are still only a few compared to the cars of other brands that they offer.
And as mentioned above the sticker price of the used cars is pretty high in Germany.

From what I can see here in Germany it looks like there are about 30 serious offers fo Germany cars here at the web site "mobile".

Search including all vehicles: 60
Search only German vehicles: 43
Search only German vehicles with less than 1000km: 16
 
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Some people from the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium and other countries try to sell their used cars in Germany because used car prices for Model S is higher in Germany compared to their original country.
The amount of these cars from abroad is almost one third of the cars currently offered online!
If you want to buy a used Model S in Germany, you would do the same and try to find a cheap offer in e.g. Norway.

This! If you compare Model S vs. other luxury vehicles of the same year / mileage you observe two things for Germany:

1. There is (almost) nothing on the market - just a handful of cars vs. thousands sold over the past years
2. The prices are extremely stubbornly high - indicating that people are not really trying to sell the cars but have it merely as a "testing the market".

There was quite a bit of frustration with Tesla Sales in Germany earlier this year: If the used market is as it is in Germany, the indication is that the product is great, there are just too few cars and Tesla was accused of doing too little in Germany. Well, they changed their sales structure, hired new personnel and the latest stats show that they are beginning to move some cars now which is really great to see.
 
The main problem with the German market is still unresolved: no incentives for private buyers.
In comparison with other high-end cars, the ratio of company cars vs. private sales is a little better for Model S as far as private sales are concerned. About one quarter of Model S sales are private buyers, whereas with cars like the Audi A8 oder BMW 7 series only around 5 percent are sold to private buyers.
Therefor, incentives could do quite a bit of good, especially as I would imagine that quite a few of those private people buying Model S cars are stretching a bit to get one and that they would not necessarily be otherwise cross-shopping for an A8, 7 series or S class.
At least there is a little hope on the horizon now for more incentives. We just don't know yet how substantial they will be for the private buyer. Germany tends to favor business when it comes to incentives (but that is a general thing and not limited to BEVs).
 
Bad news out of Denmark: Teslas will be fully taxed as of next year. So expect the Danish market to collapse with regards to Model S + Model X.

No English news source yet.

Edit: To be specific: Cars above DKK 800.000 will be hit by the full tax as of Jan 1.

Cars below that face 20% of the (up to) 180% tax in 2016, then 40% in 2017 etc. up to the full 100% of the 180% in 5 years.

This means that the 70D / 85D are "only" going to be hit with a 20% share of the tax next year while the P version (and the higher speced 85Ds) will be hit with the full tax immediately.
 
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General election in Denmark within the next 5 years? New government and possibly new policies?

Hey, if I could perfectly predict the future, I would have made even more money on TSLA than I did ;-)

Of course changes are possible. But today's decision - which was proposed by the governing party which is a minority in the parliament - was decided with votes from a broad coalition of parties. So I'm not sure how quickly that could be reversed. Tesla Denmark (and Nissan for that matter, too) are complaining heavily and say with 180% tax electric cars will be gone from Denmark in a few years.

It will be interesting. Teslas are increasingly looked at as "cheating" as they are considered "luxury" cars that are "subsidized" by the general public. I think that's an unfair characterization and I find it telling that the new government also moves to abolish existing NOx legislation to make Diesel cars cheaper (nope, that's not a joke).
 
I find it telling that the new government also moves to abolish existing NOx legislation to make Diesel cars cheaper (nope, that's not a joke).

Oh but it is! Just not funny.

I suspect one deciding factor (beside the usual political graft for tax money) is Denmark's heavy reliance on dirty coal power plants.
Hey! Why not build a few Chernobyl-type reactors while they are at it - I hear Ukraine has a used one, maybe for sale cheaply?

OK, that was also not funny. Sorry, feeling bitter today.