Gouging by the chatter in the delivery posts on the different international model S forums I believe so.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Gouging by the chatter in the delivery posts on the different international model S forums I believe so.
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
Thanks for the info. Unfortunately the Wiki doesn't work for me. I can't get that page to open. Or to be more precise, I can't get any page with Google docs to open. Must be some browser security setting I don't know. Mybad.
March will be big, but I doubt much more than 2000 cars. So Europe won't get anywhere near those 5000 cars from Q4. Will be really interesting to see Q1 numbers a US sales also seem to be rather slow... Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
I think that your conclusion about deliveries during March is incorrect. In fact a vast majority of cars, for all regions, will be delivered in March because of the way Tesla currently schedules production. Below is an explanation of how I think this production allocation works and why deliveries in Q1 will be greatly back-loaded.
In order to meet quarterly goal while ramping production of MX, Tesla production allocation is currently designed to ensure that all cars produced during the Q1 are delivered in Q1. Given that delivery in US takes 1 to 2 weeks, delivery to Europe - 5 to 6 weeks, and even longer to Asia, production is scheduled to cover each region during specific time within the quarter to make sure that all cars reash customers in Q1.
In Q4 split of US/European/Asia-Pacific deliveries was 52% / 31% / 17%. Historically, out of 13 calendar weeks in each quarter the factory is running 12 weeks, with one week of down time per quarter for tooling. Roughly splitting 12 production weeks in above proportion results in 2 weeks of production (100% of it) allocated to Asia/Pacific, 4 weeks of production allocated to Europe and 6 weeks of production allocated to US.
In order to assure that all cars produced in Q1 are delivered in Q1, the last week of Q4 and first (working, or second calendar) week of Q1 - total of two weeks per the above - were allocated to producing cars exclusively for Asia/Pacific. Given 6-8 weeks for delivery this assures that all these cars will be delivered in Q1: second week of Q4 +6/8 = 8/10. This means that all cars slated for Asia/Pacific will be delivered between the 8th and 10th week of Q1, i.e. during first and second week of March.
The next four weeks are allocated to the production of European orders. This means that last European order will be produced during the 6th week of the Q1, which leaves up to 7 weeks for delivery of the cars produced at the end of 6th week of Q1. Once again this means that virtually all European cars will be delivered in March.
Finally, from the 7th through 12th (calendar) week of Q1 the production will be fully allocated to NA, with cars designated to CA being produced last. This again will result in majority of cars (roughly 2/3) delivered in March.
The net result of the above is that almost all cars destined to Asia/Pacific and Europe will be delivered in March, while about 2/3 of cars designated for NA will also be delivered in March.
The European cars that were delivered during Jan/Feb are essentially cars that were not delivered in Dec of 2015 for one or another reason.
Finally, during Q4 Tesla delivered about 17,400 cars, 208 of them MX. So total delivered MS were 17,192. At the same time, according to the shareholder letter Tesla produced 14,037 vehicles (with up to to 13,829 of them MS). Given that Tesla producing around 14,000 Model S per quarter, the Q4 goal of 16,000 vehicles likely includes 14,000 MS and 2,000 MX. So deliveries of MS in Q1 will be roughly 3,000 less than in Q4 of 2015.
Here is how deliveries in Q1 might look:
That's all nice theory and everything, but if you look at Europe you can see that individual market matter A LOT.
Tesla has only once sold close to 3000 cars in a month and that was with the help of 1200 sales in Denmark. The other time it came anywhere near that with 2400 cars was with 1100 cars in Norway. Both countries have low sales now.
So where is Tesla going to sell those 3000 cars?
Europe 2015 Model S sales - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Nice theory.
Nobody knows what sales are only deliveries.
Yes, we know Tesla pulled forward a lot of Danish demand because of pending punitive taxes in Denmark. The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming here and just makes a lot of economic sense.
The weakness of the Norwegian Krone and rising Norwegian economic pessimism due to falling oil & gas prices will likely have an effect.
But we go through this BS every quarter. Tesla will not find new buyers. It has exhausted all millionaire environmentalist buyers.
Then Tadah! New sales record.
Everywhere else appears to be rising demand. Particularly Switzerland and the UK.
Well, my theory is based on observations of delivery estimates, company projections (and the time they were made) and observation of the deliveries over 2015.
You are making a mistake of assuming that Telsa does not have enough orders to at least match the semi-steady state production of about 14,000 MS per quarter (limited by the throughput capacity of the "old" body in white line). I would really like to hear what this assumption is based on, as I am not aware of any data points that support it. The reality is that Tesla made it's projection of Q1 deliveries on Feb.10, during the last week that they were producing European cars. Eleven days before that, on Jan 30 the estimated delivery time for cars slated for European delivery changed from March to June for 70 and 70D and to Late April for 85, 85D and P85D. So by that time Tesla already had all European orders that it needed to meet the Q1 guidance.
As for the question of where the deliveries will come from, I think you are ignoring the fact that I highlighted in my previous post: that Tesla is planning to deliver in Q1 a not insignificant 3,000 MS less than in Q4. The table below accounts for historical quarter over quarter growth of deliveries in European countries with the subtracted deliveries for January and February. Using this historical growth approach (and discounting the Danish Q4 rash of deliveries) easily adds up to more than 3,000 European deliveries in March:
Delivery estimates for Europe remained on March for 65 days, or nearly 18% of a full year. So Tesla is delivering 18% of their yearly European demand in March. Last year, European deliveries totaled 16221. Assuming no growth over 2015 (a very unfavorable assumption), this means 2920 deliveries in March and likely higher. However incredible the projected numbers in vgrinspun's table look, the observed statistics support them. At most you can make a case that Switzerland is going to be a bit higher while Norway a bit lower but it shouldn't change much when added all up. My over/under-performance threshold for March deliveries for Europe is 3000.
Gerardf
Active Member
I agree, I find vgrinshpun's theory and analysis convincing. Thanks for all your work tracking delivery times and sharing the results on the forum !
( Hmm : You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to vgrinshpun again. )
Countdown 3...2...1 to multiple articles on SA in March screaming how demand has now really, really, really totally crashed and Tesla won't survive the year (yawn...).
I believe it is Anton's turn.. or will Paulo be first ?
Last edited:
This is an interesting way to analyze estimated delivery time - I never looked at the data this way. It is very telling that your analysis leads to a similar conclusion as mine, although done from a different angle. Thanks for sharing.
- - - Updated - - -
ROFL. I think that this type of article would be right down the Paulo's alley. Anton seem to be more comfortable writing a type of an article that lists all ICE econo-boxes that have range greater than Model S and concluding that Tesla sales are about to seize based on that...
Gerardf
Active Member
Did not take long, Paulo delivers :
The Tesla Supercharger Mystery - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Last part :
An Aside: Q1 2016 Deliveries
In case you do not want to give him clicks to read just that part :
At this point, InsideEVs puts TSLA's deliveries during the first 2 months of the quarter at ~3,200 vehicles. At the same time, registrations in Europe are ~1,300. If we put Asia optimistically at 60% of Europe sales, this would add another 800 vehicles.
The grand total for the first 2 months of the quarter would come to just 5,300 vehicles delivered. Even replicating TSLA's best month ever (December 2015) wouldn't allow TSLA to reach 16,000 deliveries during Q1 2016.
If we optimistically assume TSLA will double its first 2 month deliveries in March, this brings it to less than 11,000 deliveries. Deliveries much above 13,000-14,000 seem a mirage and such implies TSLA will miss its deliveries guidance when it reports Q1 deliveries in early April.
The Tesla Supercharger Mystery - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Last part :
An Aside: Q1 2016 Deliveries
In case you do not want to give him clicks to read just that part :
At this point, InsideEVs puts TSLA's deliveries during the first 2 months of the quarter at ~3,200 vehicles. At the same time, registrations in Europe are ~1,300. If we put Asia optimistically at 60% of Europe sales, this would add another 800 vehicles.
The grand total for the first 2 months of the quarter would come to just 5,300 vehicles delivered. Even replicating TSLA's best month ever (December 2015) wouldn't allow TSLA to reach 16,000 deliveries during Q1 2016.
If we optimistically assume TSLA will double its first 2 month deliveries in March, this brings it to less than 11,000 deliveries. Deliveries much above 13,000-14,000 seem a mirage and such implies TSLA will miss its deliveries guidance when it reports Q1 deliveries in early April.
Last edited:
Gerardf
Active Member
An update again from Mr. Bacardi on the Norwegian forum
(Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
March 12: 132 registered in Norway.
(Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
March 12: 132 registered in Norway.
All Your Bases
Member
For Denmark the estimate for March should be less that 5. Sales have stopped due to phase in of purchase tax.
The wiki moved here now btw. Is there a different way to view it the old style and not as forum post?
Tesla Europe Registration Stats
Tesla Europe Registration Stats
Keep in mind it is a very early easter and that is a big thing in Norway. Not so much for the religious content, but it is a traditional vacation and Norway is closed for all intends and purposes this week. My guess is in general car sales during the easter week (where only monday and tuesday is work day) is usually less then 10% of a regular week. That's not specific to Tesla but all major purchases.
So my guess would be this year march will be bad and april will be relatively better. Or there will be a LOT of deliveries on the 29-31th of march.
Cobos
I'm not sure why you all expected something different. Tesla's sales in Norway were already declining last year. Even with the big push it just got 800 sales.
15Q3 222/220/127=569
15Q4 198/225/373=796
With 200 sales in two months in 2016 so far that's just a 250 sales gap to the Q3 numbers. So 200 sales so far with maybe another 50-100 in the next days is pretty much what you would expect.
15Q3 222/220/127=569
15Q4 198/225/373=796
With 200 sales in two months in 2016 so far that's just a 250 sales gap to the Q3 numbers. So 200 sales so far with maybe another 50-100 in the next days is pretty much what you would expect.
Similar threads
- Article
