EU Market Situation and Outlook

[mrdoubleb]

France is also out but the link to the file on their site is broken. I asked them to fix it... This is also the leading news on their site today and they have a graph, but unfortunately they accidentally re-posted January... One thing is certain they are not hardcore geeks...

Good news is the text of the article actually mentions the Model S: 55 delivered in February, up 10 from January. Unfortunately the X is not mentioned in the article, all we know is it was 27 in January.

 

[geneclean55]

So looking like anything less than 5000 for this quarter would be a disappointment?

 

[hobbes]

Just posted a reply regarding demand concerns to investor thread, thought I´d share the analyis here, too:

Jan+Feb 2017 combined have 2660 vs.
last year´s Jan/Feb: 1330 (in fact exactly factor of 2),
Apr/May: 1275,
Jul/Aug: 1791,
Oct/Nov: 1708.
Record-breaking Q4 2015 had 2735 for Oct/Nov.

Might be that next month is down in Europe due to factory shutdown this month and part of the good Jan numbers is probably "hangover" from Dec (late deliveries), but I think it is still looking good.

 

[schonelucht]

With next month, do you mean March or April? I don't think the factory shut down will have a negative impact on European delivery numbers. Tesla increased overall capacity anyway and end of February is historically not a month for European production anyway. Norway is running full steam ahead. 5000 seems likely.

 

[Fast Laner]

Good read on use of batteries for mobiltity and storage published by german daily newspaper "Frankfurter Rundschau"

Geschäft mit Autobatterien nimmt Fahrt auf

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla must have delivered around 200 cars this past week in Norway. I wonder how close they get to 700 hundred by the 31st?

 

[Gerasimental]

Tesla must have delivered around 200 cars this past week in Norway. I wonder how close they get to 700 hundred by the 31st?

Should easily make 700. It's up to 620 now with 38 registered so far today, and 3 days left to go.

 

[schonelucht]

Not official yet, but likely very close (maybe a few units off) Norway hits 298 Model S and 446 Model X for a total of 744 deliveries. That's better than last quarter (263+425) and last year (487) Monday will be interesting. If the rest of continental Europe also sees strong delivery numbers we may be in for one of the best European quarters since quite a while.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Not official yet, but likely very close (maybe a few units off) Norway hits 298 Model S and 446 Model X for a total of 744 deliveries. That's better than last quarter (263+425) and last year (487) Monday will be interesting. If the rest of continental Europe also sees strong delivery numbers we may be in for one of the best European quarters since quite a while.

Indeed, 1202 total deliveries for Norway Q1 is quite impressive.

Broadly speaking it will be interesting to see in Q2-Q3 how the balance between S and X looks once X has delivered all the backlog and we are in steady state. Are we there yet? Who knows....

 

[neroden]

GERMANY February 2017: +122% YoY
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 07/2017 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im Februar 2017

check "Diagrams"

Reversion to the mean? Germany was running behind most of Europe for Tesla sales and people were coming up with all sorts of "reasons" for it. Maybe it was statistical noise and Germany is catching up?

 

[Borka]

Tesla Sweden had a total of 257 sales in March. 182 Model S and 75 X.

This gets Q1 to 431 (283 S + 155 X).

Nyregistreringar

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Sweden had a total of 257 sales in March. 182 Model S and 75 X.

This gets Q1 to 431 (283 S + 155 X).

Q1 2016 was 198 sales. All Model S obviously.

 

[schonelucht]

Please do not forget to submit new data. It is a big help in maintaining the stats. Thanks! Tesla Europe Registration Stats

PS. Austria 170 which compares very favorably with 127 last year and 51 last quarter. At this rate 5500 for the quarter is a reasonable guess. I am wondering if Tesla is going to shift S/X sales from the US to elsewhere to delay the phasing out of the federal tax credit at some point. A strong European market would certainly give them more options to do so!

 

[transpondster]

I am wondering if Tesla is going to shift S/X sales from the US to elsewhere to delay the phasing out of the federal tax credit at some point. A strong European market would certainly give them more options to do so!

I would guess its easier and more profitable to divert 3 sales to Canada and Mexico when approaching 200k limit or even send to early reservation holders in Norway

 

[hobbes]

Reversion to the mean? Germany was running behind most of Europe for Tesla sales and people were coming up with all sorts of "reasons" for it. Maybe it was statistical noise and Germany is catching up?

Did anyone actually see the number for GER in March? It´s 670 !!! For a total of 1023 for the quarter .
For comparison: Best Q so far was Sep 2016 with 377 cars. 2016 total was 1908, so Q1 17 had more than half of 2016 total!!

 

[RobStark]

Did anyone actually see the number for GER in March? It´s 670 !!! For a total of 1023 for the quarter .
For comparison: Best Q so far was Sep 2016 with 377 cars. 2016 total was 1908, so Q1 17 had more than half of 2016 total!!

Will Model S still qualify for German government incentives with the discontinuation of S 60?

If S no longer qualifies that might be a reason demand was pulled forward.

 

[Spidy]

Will Model S still qualify for German government incentives with the discontinuation of S 60?

If S no longer qualifies that might be a reason demand was pulled forward.

Keep in mind these orders were made in January or earlier and Tesla just announced that they will discontinue the 60 at the end of March. I think removing free Supercharging was most likely the big factor since electricity is pretty expensive in Germany.

€ 0.34 per minute above 60 kW
€ 0.17 per minute at or below 60 kW

 

[Lesifass]

So in March, Tesla registered 670 EVs in Germany.

Renault registered 587.
BMW registered 263.
Nissan 172.
Volkswagen 172.
Kia 97.
Mercedes 87.
Opel 40 (they are listed as "Ampera", which is actually the Volt... But the Ampera shouldn't be listed as a pure EV, so I guess those are dealership Ampera-E's, i.e. Bolts).
Peugeot 29.
Hyundai 27 (61% of those Ioniq EVs were bought from a single dealership, Autohaus Sangl in Landsberg am Lech).
Citroen 17.
"Other" manufacturers registered 15 EVs.
Smart 7.
Mitsubishi 5.
Audi 3.

=> Tesla is #1 EV manufacturer in Germany in March (I assume it's a one-off though). Only Renault comes close, but the Renault Zoe is very affordable compared to even the Model S 60. Will be interesting to see the Model 3's impact.

 

[mmd]

The stats show almost doubling of EU sales in Q1 compared to last few quarters. What could be the reason? Free superharger expiry? Model S 60 expiry?
Or did the new corporate sales that kicked in at end of March lower the cost of ownership in Europe greatly? Any insight? TIA.
Corporate Sales | Tesla Europe

 

[dc_h]

The stats show almost doubling of EU sales in Q1 compared to last few quarters. What could be the reason? Free superharger expiry? Model S 60 expiry?
Or did the new corporate sales that kicked in at end of March lower the cost of ownership in Europe greatly? Any insight? TIA.
Corporate Sales | Tesla Europe

Certainly lower cost for anyone with a company car.