Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!

[boonedocks]

I don't think Tesla has ever promised that. Musk simply tweeted that V9 would be the beginning of self-driving features being released. So we might see initial self-driving features in version 9 or version 9.1 or version 9.2. And even some features won't be the entire FSD. We are not going to see the entire FSD released in August. Frankly, I am a little worried that 2 things are going to happen. 1) Some optimistic folks are going to assume that the entire FSD is coming out in August and are going to get super disappointed and mad when it does not. 2) The naysayers are going to claim that FSD was supposed to come out in August and when it does not, they are going to claim that Tesla failed at FSD and take it as more "proof" that FSD is never going to happen and it's all a big scam. But in both cases, Tesla never promised FSD in August.

3) The realists are going to get exactly what they expect....more broken promistatements from the ivory tower. This will be yet another example "past performance IS indicative" of what we will see. I hope not....but I expect so.

 

[d21mike]

I've said it before that in retrospect, Tesla should probably not have done the FSD demo video and probably not even advertised a FSD package at all. Instead, they should have described the AP2 hardware as simply "adding new hardware to allow for future improvements to autopilot". That way, they are not promising anything specific at all and could announce new features when they actually become available.

But in that case how could they have sold FSD for $3,000US?

 

[diplomat33]

But in that case how could they have sold FSD for $3,000US?

Well, in my scenario, they would not have. Sure, they would have lost that revenue but they also would not be under any stress or obligation to deliver FSD to customers.

 

[rnortman]

But in that case how could they have sold FSD for $3,000US?

I would like to propose a final resolution for this issue -- they should make all L2 features free to everybody as a standard feature, retroactively. And then they should convert anything anybody paid for EAP/FSD into an investment in Tesla stock, converted to shares according to the stock price on the day they ordered or the day the car was delivered, whichever is lower.

If they could somehow make that legal I think it would be adequate and ethical compensation for us subsidizing their startup.

 

[brianman]

Definitely a smart thing to do. Now if they just remove the FSD demo video from the site and quit pretending that this hardware might someday allow true, practical L4 autonomy I think they'll be in good shape with respect to their promises, at least for customers going forward. How they will deal with the people who bought based on the original descriptions will be interesting to watch.

That still doesn't address the verbal "L5" statement from Elon at the beginning of the public announcement for AP2 hardware. That was and is a direct input to my decision to buy AP2 hardware and FSD on two vehicles.

 

[hiroshiy]

I find that hard to believe as it's a terrible workaround. Braking seems random and related to all manner of conditions, slight weather and lighting changes, other vehicle combinations, time of day etc. etc. etc. More often than not I believe what most people perceive as improvements within the same release are just them getting used to how it feels.

Suppressing of phantom braking seems to be implemented by a flag in autopilot tiles, which is a rectangle region containing road information. Tiles seem to be downloaded via LTE.
@verygreen and @DamianXVI discovered this. Read the first several pages of this thread and look for "Radar Braking Enabled:", which seems like a Boolean flag.
Tesla Autopilot maps

 

[d21mike]

That still doesn't address the verbal "L5" statement from Elon at the beginning of the public announcement for AP2 hardware. That was and is a direct input to my decision to buy AP2 hardware and FSD on two vehicles.

He probably meant "wouldn't" do L5 instead of "would" do L5. Sorry could not resist

 

[rnortman]

That still doesn't address the verbal "L5" statement from Elon at the beginning of the public announcement for AP2 hardware. That was and is a direct input to my decision to buy AP2 hardware and FSD on two vehicles.

Agreed, Elon's public statements will be relevant if/when this gets to court, but I'm just talking about what's actually on the website and order page -- the written part of the sales pitch and contract.

 

[d21mike]

Recent versions of EAP descriptions (once they took out the language about uninitiated lane changes) are solidly L2, whereas once upon a time it really read like a highway L3 system (particularly the uninitiated lane changes). Recent versions of the FSD description, which no longer include Park Seek Mode, could also be interpreted to mean L2, because nowhere -- nowhere -- do they say that you won't be responsible for operation of the vehicle at all times. Nowhere do they say you can read a book or take a nap. If you can't read a book while the car handles the driving, that's L2, not even L3, and certainly not L4/L5.

Now, they may, eventually, deliver more than they are currently promising. But you can't ignore the fact that they have watered down their official promises over time. If you buy the EAP/FSD as described right now, you are buying an L2 driver assistance package. Go read the descriptions on the order page right now. It's embarrassing compared to what they once promised.

Are you mainly talking about the "order page" with maybe a brief description or tesla.com/autopilot page. Not sure when/where I saw the exact "uninitiated lane changes".

Here is what is on the autopilot change today.

Enhanced Autopilot
Enhanced Autopilot adds these new capabilities to the Tesla Autopilot driving experience. Your Tesla will match speed to traffic conditions, keep within a lane, automatically change lanes without requiring driver input, transition from one freeway to another, exit the freeway when your destination is near, self-park when near a parking spot and be summoned to and from your garage.

Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software has begun rolling out and features will continue to be introduced as validation is completed, subject to regulatory approval. Every driver is responsible for remaining alert and active when using Autopilot, and must be prepared to take action at any time.

On-ramp to Off-ramp
Once on the freeway, your Tesla will determine which lane you need to be in and when. In addition to ensuring you reach your intended exit, Autopilot will watch for opportunities to move to a faster lane when you're caught behind slower traffic. When you reach your exit, your Tesla will depart the freeway, slow down and transition control back to you.

 

[rnortman]

Are you mainly talking about the "order page" with maybe a brief description or tesla.com/autopilot page. Not sure when/where I saw the exact "uninitiated lane changes".

Here is what is on the autopilot change today.
[...]

That comes from Autopilot but you can't navigate to that page from the tesla.com home page anymore, as far as I can tell, only from that direct link. None of the current product description or order pages link to it, and they all have seriously watered down language. I think Tesla can (weakly) argue that they are no longer advertising that since the link as been removed. I suspect the page will be updated before too long to be similar to the recent product/order page refresh.

But yes, the text you copied there -- the bit about automatic lane changes -- implies some very lightweight L3-ish features for highway driving. Smart Summon and "self-park when near a parking spot" suggest some low-speed unsupervised autonomy. Both of these have been removed from the refreshed product/order pages. Tesla is trying to be a bit sly about how they take this information down, make it seem like just normal website changes rather than obvious backpedaling.

 

[d21mike]

That comes from Autopilot but you can't navigate to that page from the tesla.com home page anymore, as far as I can tell, only from that direct link. None of the current product description or order pages link to it, and they all have seriously watered down language. I think Tesla can (weakly) argue that they are no longer advertising that since the link as been removed. I suspect the page will be updated before too long to be similar to the recent product/order page refresh.

But yes, the text you copied there -- the bit about automatic lane changes -- implies some very lightweight L3-ish features for highway driving. Smart Summon and "self-park when near a parking spot" suggest some low-speed unsupervised autonomy. Both of these have been removed from the refreshed product/order pages. Tesla is trying to be a bit sly about how they take this information down, make it seem like just normal website changes rather than obvious backpedaling.

Now I understand. Thanks.

 

[emmz0r]

You're really underestimating the difficulty of this.

FSD, in general, has *never* been successfully accomplished in the history of the world.

They should release a status update, and / or allow a group of Super Users to test what they have done so far.

And many things in life do not require the high accuracy required for FSD. For example, 99% reliability for FSD (I'll simplify this to mean num-accidents / num-times-driven) is clearly insufficient unless you want an accident in your car every 3 months. Yet, 99% is probably higher accuracy than most medical diagnoses.

(In fact, I'm not sure if I would be comfortable with even 99.9% reliability... expected one accident every 2.7 years...)

Therefore, and based on the progress I've seen so far, I do not expect Tesla to be anywhere close to FSD by version 9.

Never expected it to be full blown level 4 or 5 in August. However traffic lights would be nice, intersections I know is hard. Google used LIDAR to detect a bicyclist coming in which the humans didn't even see.

 

[d21mike]

They should release a status update, and / or allow a group of Super Users to test what they have done so far.



Never expected it to be full blown level 4 or 5 in August. However traffic lights would be nice, intersections I know is hard. Google used LIDAR to detect a bicyclist coming in which the humans didn't even see.

I am expecting that the initial release of "intersections" will be the car will see the stop sign and red light and come to a stop. Like exiting a freeway. BUT, then the driver will press the accelerator to initiate going thru the intersection when safe. Same for make right/left turns under GPS/Navigation.

 

[tontod]

I am expecting that the initial release of "intersections" will be the car will see the stop sign and red light and come to a stop. Like exiting a freeway. BUT, then the driver will press the accelerator to initiate going thru the intersection when safe. Same for make right/left turns under GPS/Navigation.

Or perhaps show the traffic light status and STOP signs in the instrument cluster, but not take any action to start off with.

 

[d21mike]

Or perhaps show the traffic light status and STOP signs in the instrument cluster, but not take any action to start off with.

That could be the first option as well.

 

[S100D]

They should release a status update, and / or allow a group of Super Users to test what they have done so far.

Never expected it to be full blown level 4 or 5 in August. However traffic lights would be nice, intersections I know is hard. Google used LIDAR to detect a bicyclist coming in which the humans didn't even see.

I believe the last commitment was that we would have FSD at the end of 2019. I doubt we will not have the entire FSD by the end of 2019. If people are thinking anything other than a few new features in August, they are going to be very disappointed.

 

[rnortman]

I believe the last commitment was that we would have FSD at the end of 2019. I doubt we will not have the entire FSD by the end of 2019. If people are thinking anything other than a few new features in August, they are going to be very disappointed.

When/where was the end-of-2019 commitment made?

 

[emmz0r]

I believe the last commitment was that we would have FSD at the end of 2019. I doubt we will not have the entire FSD by the end of 2019. If people are thinking anything other than a few new features in August, they are going to be very disappointed.

Do they still stand by that commitment? I saw Renault having a car. But take note that it only gets activated when they are on the highway, and the dude is sitting there touching the controls.

So basically EAP without the nag and it seemed to handle a toll road station.

 

[diplomat33]

Do they still stand by that commitment? I saw Renault having a car. But take note that it only gets activated when they are on the highway, and the dude is sitting there touching the controls.

So basically EAP without the nag and it seemed to handle a toll road station.

That car in that video, the Renaut Symbioz, is a prototype car that costs over a 1 million dollars if I am not mistaken. Renault is using it as demo car to prove the concept and does not intend to actually mass produce the car for the public. So I don't think it is a fair comparison with a Tesla.

 

[emmz0r]

That car in that video, the Renaut Symbioz, is a prototype car that costs over a 1 million dollars if I am not mistaken. Renault is using it as demo car to prove the concept and does not intend to actually mass produce the car for the public. So I don't think it is a fair comparison with a Tesla.

Well the car might cost 1M $ but ultimately it's the software which is the only factor here. And then it doesn't matter whether it's a production car or not. Unless that Renault has some unique processing hardware that Tesla's NVidia can't match and can't be used for the same level of self driving that Renault has achieved.