i've had at least one ev (spark ev) since 2014 in the PGE territory. EVA used to be 8c off peak back then, with the prices of gas here that's 4x difference compared to a gas conterpart of the same model. Service, toll benefits are also some $. I was able to do about 3k a year savings all in all with one car (granted, it was a subcompact). Since then i also bought PacHy which additionally charges about 13kwhr daily . PacHy services are more of a regular car kind, although oil change still is just once a year. My last cycle bill (the electric part) was $115. anyhow between two cars I estimate should be at least 5k a year.
The caveat is that eva is 48c at peak starting 1 of sept. With summer AC use and EVA as is, that would easily push the bill towards $250 or more. Inner east bay is not too hot though. To cope with the peak and half-of-peak rate robbery, last year i have install 2x pw2, and now i have backup + off-peak pretty much the whole day for the house too (minus PW charging overhead for the house use during peak).
The PW investment was a bit steep for what it does though, ~13.5k which is being offset by SGIP rebate step 2 ($9280) (which i am still yet to get!). This rebate turns out to be the toughest to get yet. So the PW ordeal is probably ~$4250 net or so, which still is a bit steep for offsetting mere $600-800 a year (which may climb up though). Still though, it is also an automatic backup (we are losing power during storm season once or twice almost every year due to high winds in canyons). And now we don't care about when it is the best time to run dryer or electric oven anymore. The PW is able to offset completely up to 10kw, which is about peak oven + dryer consumption at the same time. That has to be worth something. And now i have a potential to pair it up with solar TOU in the future as well. If it weren't for SGIP, i am not sure if I really would do the PW though. Solar alone would have potential to erase my electric bills completely, but it would be order of magnitude bigger investment than the PW2, and i am not sure my house can effectively carry the amount enough for 2 evs. In the end the PW does seem like it has worked out well enough though.
Another caveat is that eva off-peak rates have been climbing pretty quickly (now 13c, so somthgin like almost 50% increase since 2014). And I think gas has eased a little bit since then, so now it is probably more like 3x less cost vs. gas, probably closer to 3x.
With M3 i expect the bills to go up a bit, as M3 is usually not as efficient as spark ev (i usually am able to drive between 4 and 6 miles easily per kwh with Spark).
The cost of M3 alone should make all these savings pretty laughable though. But most importantly, in the end one cannot quite put a cost on air quality, so I don't worry if I end up coming higher or lower. I am more inclined to view it as a personal contribution to stopping emissions. Bite the bullet once, enjoy a cleaner neighborhood for years to come.