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FSD at least a decade away (Morgan Stanley)
- Thread starter 2101Guy
- Start date
He’s not wrong.
I also think a 15% take-rate is extremely generous.
I also think a 15% take-rate is extremely generous.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Who is more credible? Elon Musk who is an engineer and has insider information as well as progress status or a banker?
The guy who's trying to sell a product or the guy who invests in products that are trying to be sold?
Never believe a sales person. They want your money more than they want your friendship.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
They don't say FSD (as in Tesla realizing full revenue from the option package after delivering the city streets feature) is a decade away, they say the following:
"We note that while our Tesla Target includes ARPU for the 'Network Services' business and recurring revenue from 'Tesla Mobility' (human-attended ride share) that we do not ascribe any specific value on full autonomy as we do not believe the technology will be ready to deploy at scale for many years (i.e. a decade or more)."
This basically means they don't believe any serious scale revenue generating robotaxi service will be coming from Tesla anytime soon, but that's way different than from saying that they won't have a "feature complete" FSD package before then (aka door-to-door L2).
The passage immediately proceeding that touched on realizing FSD option revenue: they say currently only 60% is realized, 40% is not. The way they talk about it seems to suggest they feel it'll be fully recognized in the near future.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Looks reasonable, though making predictions 10 years from now is very difficult. More importantly Jonas is skeptical of all robotaxis …. Not just Tesla.
Adam Jonas. Let’s see what he said about Tesla earlier though ….
The real kicker ? The price is pre-split
Adam Jonas. Let’s see what he said about Tesla earlier though ….
The real kicker ? The price is pre-split
haha. Once I got to this part I instinctively already started laughing mainly based on what he's tweeted about FSD timelines over the years. LOL
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think mainly because Waymo and others have been promising robotaxis for so long.Gee, I wonder why anyone would be?
I’ll give you a hint, it’s not Elon.
His FSD timelines have been absolute, flat out, lies and exaggerations.
How’s that cross-country trip from LA to NY coming along? It’s 5 years later and I still have not seen it happen.
To be fair, Jonas was quite the bull before the Model 3 production hell ramp. SO much so that TSLAQ was making fun of him left and right.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
And yet, Elon has been consistently wrong about the FSD timeline since 2016.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I wasn't paying attention before the infamous taking private tweet.
Adam Jonas became a joke after that - he was forever the best, I guess until he couldn't ignore reality anymore.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But so have most of the industry folks.
It's been a collective estimation failure.
I guess it's the typical invention cycle. Some like OP and Adam are still in the depths of despair phase.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Perhaps. But my point is that we can't automatically say that Elon is credible on FSD just because he is an engineer and has insider information since Elon has those things and was still wrong on FSD timeline.
Oh so many dislikes when others on here say the same thing, my less than humble self included. I actually thought maybe in 7 years but give some buffer. Strip robotaxi out of the near and medium term cash flow is all. Doesn't mean Tesla is not an awesome company.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Of course. We "know" he has been constantly wrong.
But that also doesn't make Jonas anymore credible !
ps : I should add - all of us, 60k testers, have front seat on this. We can see what's happening month to month and will know when we are anywhere close to human level, let alone robotaxi level. No need to defer to experts and analysts!
Well that's true but then again, on FSD neither does EM. So..meh. I've been watching it closely over the last year. It's going to be long, 2 hardware redo's. Robotaxi is, the more I thought through the business, a big nothing burger. Just think...a chance to compete with Uber...a company that has never turned a profit and has no path to profitability...even if you remove drivers. Why do you want to compete with a money losing pig ? Cars, trucks, everything energy. It's amazing that Tesla is such a great investment despite FSD being a bit of a ...sink.
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