I disagree with this assessment.
As far as FSD dates are concerned, the fact is, no one knows. Not Elon, not Andre, and certainly not some banker/analyst who thinks a neural net is something used in fishing. That's why all predictions, both optimistic and pessimistic, are just total guesses in the dark.
I agree with your on the hardware ...but then I know it's not the current hardware and since they've announced hw4 lets face it..even EM knows it is not this HW version. I also can't imagine HW staying static for half a decade so I think 2 is a safe easy conservative estimate.I disagree with this assessment.
First of all in terms of hardware redos ... let's call it what it is - a guess. My guess is as good as yours. And i've no idea
On robotaxi business - I definitely disagree. It can be a very profitable business. See Ark's spreadsheet.
To be fair, Uber had two straight profitable quarters recently, although the most recent one is mostly one-time deals based on windfalls from other investments. However, it's a fair point that they took a decade to do that (which may be one justification for Morgan's decade estimate for anything substantially positive to come from such a venture if Tesla were to try). Also, the revenue from deliveries ($2.4 billion) barely beat out out rides ($2.3 billion), and that is something that isn't going to really be easy to replicate with driverless cars (someone has to handle the loading and unloading).
Yes, it can be profitable with a big footnote: As long as it will have the ability to avoid hitting a green bollard!
Yeah. Here’s what we do know; the banker’s prediction is certainly more in line with reality than anything Elon has ever said.
Any HW revision - would be incidental to how long it will take to get the SW working ? I can go with that
My reference to ARK has nothing to do with their analysis per se. You can take a look at their spreadsheet and play around with it. Plug in your own numbers and post it here. We can talk concrete numbers instead of hand waving
We have talked a lot about this in other threads. As I said above use the ARK spreadsheet (or come up with your own) and we'll talk numbers.
L5 can operate in conditions that humans can but maybe a very cautious human can.
It's funny how different people look differently at the same thing. I would say that I am surprised at how little progress has been made between when I got Navigate on Autopilot back in October of 2018 and today. Mainly because even after 4 years of development and 15 months of beta testing of AutoSteer on City Streets (FSD Beta), the latest version still has the steering wheel jerking all over the place (even when the car was stationary), sudden nervous pauses before making any sort of turn, abrupt stops/starts, etc.
4 years ago the car could follow lane lines. That was pretty much it (not that, at that point, it wasn't impressive). Now the car can drive along complex city streets and handle parked cars, moving cars, pedestrians, bikes, dogs, traffic cones, speed bumps and other obstacles. It can also figure out complex lane markings, navigate lane changes far better than TACC/NOA, handle complex junctions, 4-way stops etc etc. I'd say that was a massive advance .. or do you know how it could have been done faster? If not, why do you think the rate of progress is slow?
So how do you explain that the progress is so great that Tesla fired the driver who posted the collision with the green bollard?
www.cnbc.com
Indeed. Here are some pointers to some of Elon's claims on this (and others), compiled in 1 convenient location:
Did I at any point claim FSD was complete? Or ready for release? Or defect free? Your argument seems to be "You can't claim progress has been made because there are still problems to be solved". I think perhaps you should look up the meaning of the word "progress".So how do you explain that the progress is so great that Tesla fired the driver who posted the collision with the green bollard?
If the progress is so great, the driver would not encounter a collision and he would not be fired.
Tesla fired an employee after he posted driverless tech reviews on YouTube
John Bernal was a Tesla employee who showed FSD Beta to the world on his YouTube channel, AI Addict. He was fired in February.
I could get into a discussion of which of all those things you mentioned that it really can't do or what I think the priorities should have been in development to have a more reasonable progression, but I don't see how any of that is germane. I don't have to prove that I know anything in order to express my perceptions of the rate that it has progressed.
Hmm well, next you will be telling me you trust politicians
