If Elon is within a country mile of reality in suggesting we are shortly going from about 100,000 FSDb drivers to 160,000, then those extra 60,000 have to come from somewhere. If they don't let a lot of people in who are currently running higher than 2022.20.n software (specifically various flavors of 2022.24.n and 2022.28.n) then the numbers won't add to 160K ever for this version.
So take your choice as to which myth you prefer:
1. the 160K real soon now story from Elon
2. the story that FSDb installs never downgrade the user base version
While I'd not be surprised for 160K to be a bit over the reality, I still expect a lot of downgrade installs within just a few days. No, I'm not betting any beer.