FSD Overfit to Southern California

Over the holiday break I drove to visit my brother in Glendale CA. FSD Beta is head and shoulders better in Southern Cal than here at home in Washington State!

1. There are subtle differences in street markings and signage, and FSD Beta was never confused about (e.g.) which lane was the center lane or what to do when a lane disappears;
2. No roundabouts, of course, so that was never an issue; and
3. Autopilot's propensity to pass on the right makes a whole lot more sense, as California Cruise Control Cretins are everywhere! No shame at all sitting in the left lane of an Interstate with dozens of cars passing on the right.

At least when we got back into Oregon, my attempts to pass on the right were foiled by drivers who would speed up just enough to close the gap ahead so I couldn't get in. Also in Oregon there was this one New York plated vehicle that quickly changed lanes to fall in behind me when I passed on the right; I'm guessing that driver has PTSD from the honking, 'waving' and loud 'greetings' you experience when passed on the right in that part of the country.

Finally - has the California Highway Patrol stopped enforcing the speed limit on Interstates? Not complaining, but won't be posting here how fast we cruised in formation with everyone else (at least until the civil statute of limitation has expired). And I didn't see a single trooper on the side of the road with lights flashing unless there was an obvious accident.

"Testing the Tesla autopilot (self driving mode)" by Marc van der Chijs is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.
Admin note: Image added for Blog feed.

 

[hugh_jassol]

I can tell you as an LA resident, using FSD is a giant "depends where you drive". Around where I live, it's good if I can get a few blocks between disengagements. It's in the wrong lane for turns almost 50% of the time. It regularly tries to drive in the bike lane, etc.

Frustratingly, CA has no "keep right except to pass" law. So, yeah, people drive whatever speed they want in whatever lane they want.

 

[ElectricEel]

the speed is dependent on the herd…if everyone is going 85, you are allowed to go 85, heck or even 90.

 

[diplomat33]

Over the holiday break I drove to visit my brother in Glendale CA. FSD Beta is head and shoulders better in Southern Cal than here at home in Washington State!

1. There are subtle differences in street markings and signage, and FSD Beta was never confused about (e.g.) which lane was the center lane or what to do when a lane disappears;
2. No roundabouts, of course, so that was never an issue; and
3. Autopilot's propensity to pass on the right makes a whole lot more sense, as California Cruise Control Cretins are everywhere! No shame at all sitting in the left lane of an Interstate with dozens of cars passing on the right.

At least when we got back into Oregon, my attempts to pass on the right were foiled by drivers who would speed up just enough to close the gap ahead so I couldn't get in. Also in Oregon there was this one New York plated vehicle that quickly changed lanes to fall in behind me when I passed on the right; I'm guessing that driver has PTSD from the honking, 'waving' and loud 'greetings' you experience when passed on the right in that part of the country.

Finally - has the California Highway Patrol stopped enforcing the speed limit on Interstates? Not complaining, but won't be posting here how fast we cruised in formation with everyone else (at least until the civil statute of limitation has expired). And I didn't see a single trooper on the side of the road with lights flashing unless there was an obvious accident.

Yep. I think it is pretty common knowledge that FSD is overfit to CA. I think Elon even admitted it once awhile back. But that's why youtubers in CA routinely do zero intervention drives all the time, and as a result, they claim FSD is already good enough to do driverless. There is even one guy who is using his Tesla to give Uber rides but does not tell his riders that he is using FSD Beta. He claims his riders can't tell that FSD beta was driving them the whole time. He uses this to claim FSD beta is already good enough to be a robotaxi. Of course, people outside CA don't have that experience at all.

 

[nvx1977]

My personal experience and that of family in the LA area have been the opposite. It's not overfit; the OP just got lucky. It is the same as it's always been; sometimes you get good drives, and sometimes you don't. Same route, different route, weather, time of day, whatever.

Elon has said that FSD may be overfit for the bay area, not all of CA.

All that said, if FSD can be amazing in a certain area due to having more training data from that area, that bodes well for FSD in the long run, as it points to the viability of their methodology.

 

[FOOLSLFDRVNG]

Yep. I think it is pretty common knowledge that FSD is overfit to CA. I think Elon even admitted it once awhile back. But that's why youtubers in CA routinely do zero intervention drives all the time, and as a result, they claim FSD is already good enough to do driverless. There is even one guy who is using his Tesla to give Uber rides but does not tell his riders that he is using FSD Beta. He claims his riders can't tell that FSD beta was driving them the whole time. He uses this to claim FSD beta is already good enough to be a robotaxi. Of course, people outside CA don't have that experience at all.

This YouTuber tells guests

and has driven 160,000 miles till the battery needed replacement. He also has disclosed how much he made which isn’t bad without the cost of gas and maintenance and factoring in a new battery.

 

[hugh_jassol]

My personal experience and that of family in the LA area have been the opposite. It's not overfit; the OP just got lucky. It is the same as it's always been; sometimes you get good drives, and sometimes you don't. Same route, different route, weather, time of day, whatever.

Exactly. Everyone thinks the grass is greener. But it's the same FSD everywhere that gets into the wrong lane, tries to 'go around' someone at a stoplight, runs stop signs, stops in traffic circles, tries to turn left from the right land or vice versa, and so on. I live in Los Angeles and I can't go 2-3 blocks without a disengagement. If I wanted to believe everything I see on YouTube, I could watch DirtyTesla and conclude it's overfit for Ann Arbor. Or watch AI Driver and conclude it must be better on the Model S because THatS wHaT ELoN DRiveS!!

We're all driving the same flawed FSD - no one has it better than anyone else. Every now and then it can do a whole drive. Most of the time it can't. If I only ever talk about the times it can, then of course you'd think it was perfect for me.

 

[cwerdna]

I have no Tesla but if you were still down in So Cal still, I'm guessing that you would find FSD terrifying in the roads up to and back down from LAKE HOLLYWOOD PARK | City of Los Angeles Department of Recreation and Parks.

On my recent road trip, I went up there and oh boy, the streets thru residential areas are narrow and winding. At the beginning, when I tried to go up, there was a huge amount of traffic of cars coming down from the hill that impeded my progress (streets too narrow given the traffic and parked cars).

I don't recall the paths I took but just look at the streets to the west and south of the park at Lake Hollywood Park · 3160 Canyon Lake Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90068. Look at Google Street View for some of them.

I wouldn't be surprised if FSD has probs w/some exits on the left, probs with the very weird and confusing highway exits around downtown LA and the merge situation on the 110 north going towards Pasadena. Over there, I recall highway entrances that are just a stop sign and virtually no room to accelerate like Google Maps.

 

[EVNow]

He uses this to claim FSD beta is already good enough to be a robotaxi.

No he doesn’t… and he also publishes the disengagement stats.

 

[diplomat33]

No he doesn’t… and he also publishes the disengagement stats.

I was referring to @ValueAnalyst1. On Twitter, he used to constantly say that FSD Beta was good enough now to be a robotaxi.

 

[EVNow]

I was referring to @ValueAnalyst1. On Twitter, he used to constantly say that FSD Beta was good enough now to be a robotaxi.

Oh … not seen him. I’m obviously talking about CYBRLFT.

ps : There are definitely those who misrepresent what FSD does, for clicks. But most of those are gone since the audience also has FSD now … and they can’t be lied to.

 

[Kablooie]

My personal experience and that of family in the LA area have been the opposite. It's not overfit; the OP just got lucky. It is the same as it's always been; sometimes you get good drives, and sometimes you don't. Same route, different route, weather, time of day, whatever.

Elon has said that FSD may be overfit for the bay area, not all of CA.

All that said, if FSD can be amazing in a certain area due to having more training data from that area, that bodes well for FSD in the long run, as it points to the viability of their methodology.

I concur. I drive in Glendale, CA all the time and sometimes it's great but then it decides to make scary, illegal moves for no obvious reason and I have to take over. Near my home, there is one stop light that the car stops at but then tries to drive through as if it were a stop sign. It's very consistent. Another left turn light doesn't even show up on the screen and is completely ignored by the software consistently. It often picks the wrong lane for an upcoming turn and can come to a complete stop in the middle of neighborhoods for no apparent reason. I wouldn't consider it overfit. Underfit quite a lot from what it needs to be.

 

[cwerdna]

I wouldn't be surprised if FSD has probs w/some exits on the left, probs with the very weird and confusing highway exits around downtown LA

I don't know downtown LA well since I live over 300 miles away but I think starting at 7:42 at

is one of the confusing parts I'm talking about w/the downtown exits. Pay attention to the exits on the right to like at 7:55 to 4th, 3rd, 9th and 6th streets. I think if you need to go to one of those streets, you need to get to the right side and watch the signs carefully. I remember having to get out there a few times before many years ago.

If you don't need to get out, signs like at 9:22 are kind of a doozy.

 

[dflowerz]

I am still amazed that the feds allow something like FSD to be deployed on cars, even in beta version. I have FSD, in the probably naive hope that someday it will deliver on the promise, but right now I have to monitor all the time to make sure it does not do something dangerous. Recently I did one longer stint with FSD from Roseville, CA to El Dorado Hills and mostly it did well. Two interventions were a too slow 180 degree freeway onramp where I had to speed up, and an unsafe merge involving two big pickup trucks that refused to yield as they should have. That was scary. The trucks were merging into my lane as their lane was ending but I guess they figure ****Teslas and made zero effort to speed up or slow down to either get in front of or behind me. At the last minute FSD decided to apply the brakes, not sure to what end, so I took over and got us out of that situation. So mostly I do not use FSD and will keep waiting for it to someday work safely. Not a rant. Just my experience is not confidence inspiring. I will say that with the latest update FSD now properly negotiates two turns that required interventions every time before. So some progress!

 

[wknickless]

I am still amazed that the feds allow something like FSD to be deployed on cars, even in beta version.

So you're saying that FSD is more fun than a human being should be allowed to have?

 

[PVia]

I don't know downtown LA well since I live over 300 miles away but I think starting at 7:42 at

is one of the confusing parts I'm talking about w/the downtown exits. Pay attention to the exits on the right to like at 7:55 to 4th, 3rd, 9th and 6th streets. I think if you need to go to one of those streets, you need to get to the right side and watch the signs carefully. I remember having to get out there a few times before many years ago.

If you don't need to get out, signs like at 9:22 are kind of a doozy.

Looks like you're going north here...the same exits going southbound are horrible to negotiate manually and I haven't tried it with NoA. You have to be so aggressive and it's very confusing...probably the worst exchange in LA.

 

[dflowerz]

So you're saying that FSD is more fun than a human being should be allowed to have?

LOL, no! That would be the Ducati Panigale V4s sport bike I used to have. That bike was more fun than a human being should be allowed to have That was crazy fun! We see so many recalls on vehicles that my overall reaction is that the feds are pretty rigorous about safety issues, so surprising that some software is out there than can put a car in sketchy situations. On the flip side, despite FSD shortcomings it may actually be safer, even though it sure does not feel like it.

 

[sperkin]

Finally - has the California Highway Patrol stopped enforcing the speed limit on Interstates? Not complaining, but won't be posting here how fast we cruised in formation with everyone else (at least until the civil statute of limitation has expired). And I didn't see a single trooper on the side of the road with lights flashing unless there was an obvious accident.

California is too big. We don't have enough CHP on the road. My guideline is, if you see one, then you have an unlimited speeding pass for 2 hours.

I bet you were cruising 90. On rare occasions, the convey does 100-110 when its very late or very early in the morning.

 

[tangible1]

I am still amazed that the feds allow something like FSD to be deployed on cars, even in beta version. I have FSD, in the probably naive hope that someday it will deliver on the promise, but right now I have to monitor all the time to make sure it does not do something dangerous. Recently I did one longer stint with FSD from Roseville, CA to El Dorado Hills and mostly it did well. Two interventions were a too slow 180 degree freeway onramp where I had to speed up, and an unsafe merge involving two big pickup trucks that refused to yield as they should have. That was scary. The trucks were merging into my lane as their lane was ending but I guess they figure ****Teslas and made zero effort to speed up or slow down to either get in front of or behind me. At the last minute FSD decided to apply the brakes, not sure to what end, so I took over and got us out of that situation. So mostly I do not use FSD and will keep waiting for it to someday work safely. Not a rant. Just my experience is not confidence inspiring. I will say that with the latest update FSD now properly negotiates two turns that required interventions every time before. So some progress!

freeway on-ramps, contrary to popular misconception, do not have Right of Way when merging into freeway traffic.
it's the opposite - freeway traffic has RoW and the merging traffic must yield.

I've even had police trainers tell me on-ramps have RoW, because "they're the driver on the right"
this is a false equivalence - on-ramps do not constitute the equivalent to a 4-way stop intersection !!!!!

 

[tivoboy]

freeway on-ramps, contrary to popular misconception, do not have Right of Way when merging into freeway traffic.
it's the opposite - freeway traffic has RoW and the merging traffic must yield.

I've even had police trainers tell me on-ramps have RoW, because "they're the driver on the right"
this is a false equivalence - on-ramps do not constitute the equivalent to a 4-way stop intersection !!!!!

RoW often means REST OF WORLD, and indeed in many other countries in RoW vehicles entering from the right even on on-ramps DO have RoW (right of way, meaning one has to yield enough to them to allow their entry) so Tesla is going to have their work cut out for them when they finally begin to deploy FSDb to countries in Europe at least If not RoWorld.