I can envision a day when multiple companies have L4 offerings, and figuring out which one is better than the others is like listening to cell carrier advertising, where every carrier seems to have "the best nationwide coverage and speeds."
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FSD price increase on Jan 17
- Thread starter EVRider-FL
- Start date
I don't see why autonomous-driving will reduce the number of vehicles on the road. That argument may be wrapped up in a robotaxi social-model argument but I haven't really agreed with that. If anything, I can see an increase in cars per household because autonomy would mean that children can now get their own cars.
What I do think is that near -universal vehicle autonomy can go a long way to mitigate traffic congestion and therefore reduce the rate of road infrastructure expansion. But that's getting far off the present topic.
Again I think this is the crux of why you believe the preceding points. I can understand the connection and the logic but it depends on an assumption the people will want to hire their transportation instead of own it. I think that's dubious, but if true it will change all the markets we're talking about, in ways far beyond the addition of FSD features to individual vehicles.
This scenario I agree with more strongly. Like you say there will probably be a mix of flertvmodels, I just think the user-owned vehicle model will be more prevalent than perhaps some are suggesting.
I think the last page or so of posts have not been giving enough weight the insurance coverage issue - because the liability insurance portion is a key entry point for selling the subscription model to people now in today's traditional market. You bought your last car from the dealer, tried to minimize your ongoing maintenance costs by choosing one with a good warranty, and then paid your insurance agent to cover it. This time around, in order to get you to pay more recurring monies to the car company, they need to induce you to change your thinking. The easiest way to do that is to present it as a firm of the insurance cost that customers already accept. Now your car can drive itself, but if you want that, you pay us the insurance and we'll cover it along with the software. It's a sensible bundled deal.
However, i dont expect that private insurance companies will just roll over and say "we don't want any part of this autonomy stuff, we'd rather stick with our traditional and dwindling market and let AV customers pay Tesla or Volvo or GM for FSD with liability coverage". Quite the contrary, I think they' ll be scrambling to underwrite AV liability cost in partnership with these car companies. One model is like Tesla insurance - the customer thinks they're gettng it from the car company, but behind the scenes the actual coverage and claims administration is done by a contracted Insurance provider. Another model is that they may package it to appear as a traditional customer-chosen provider (Geico, State Farm et al) with a special AV policy - but behind the scenes the underwriters are working with the car companies to assess and spread risk, share data and handle the messy post-accident follow-ups that they know how to do already. In either scenario, the insurance market will surely change as AVs rise, accidents dwindle, but perhaps settlements become higher because of the shift in responsibility from individuals to perceived "deep-pocket" corporations. More like airplane accidents, rare but expensive.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
I'm trying to analyze how much FSD is worth at resale to decide if I should buy it before the price increase. I have a '21 Model S Plaid. I'm planning to sell the car in ~2 years, so subscribing would probably be cheaper than buying. But, estimating the resale value of FSD could change that math. I tried to look through data on ev-cpo.com to estimate how Tesla values FSD vs AP. It's harder to get data from the third party market, but I'm assuming they follow Tesla used pricing fairly closely.
Here's what I pulled so far. For specific configurations, I tried to match the options as closely as possible. I also compared the fleet of all available Model S and Model X vehicles. It seems that FSD might be worth more on the Model S than the Model 3. And it might be worth about $8k on my Plaid, based on the P100D value. In that case, it might only cost me $2k over two years to add FSD. What do you all think?
Here's what I pulled so far. For specific configurations, I tried to match the options as closely as possible. I also compared the fleet of all available Model S and Model X vehicles. It seems that FSD might be worth more on the Model S than the Model 3. And it might be worth about $8k on my Plaid, based on the P100D value. In that case, it might only cost me $2k over two years to add FSD. What do you all think?
| Avg Price | Avg Price | ||
| Model | w/ FSD | w/o FSD | Difference |
| Model S P100D | 95,850 | 88,125 | 7,725 |
| Model S 75D | 74,229 | 63,060 | 11,169 |
| All Model S | 84,718 | 72,484 | 12,234 |
| All Model X | 107,293 | 92,730 | 14,563 |
| Model 3 LR RWD | 51,482 | 46,436 | 5,046 |
| Model 3 LR RWD Black | 51,975 | 46,600 | 5,375 |
| Average resale value of FSD | 9,352 | ||
DefenderNM
Member
Nice! I was on the fence about adding FSD to my model 3 LR order. However with the potential resale value info I‘ll probably add it now.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
Well, my analysis might suggest it isn't worth it on the Model 3 for some reason. Seems like it is only worth $5k on the Model 3, more on the S.
And that's the retail used value of FSD. I assume unless you know how to sell used cars at retail, you're only getting the trade-in or private party percentage of that, so maybe 80% of that? And then because of Tesla's practice of stripping FSD when cars pass through used-car dealers, I suspect those dealers are basically valuing FSD as zero - so you only have Tesla's own lowball trade-in offers, or have to find a private party buyer to get that 80%.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
It seems like Tesla is not removing FSD on sales through used-car dealers unless the car passed through Tesla in the process, i.e. at auction.
EAP Removed After Vehicle added to Tesla Account
Purchased my used 2017 Model S from a 3rd party dealer, having been advertised that autopilot was on it. Before the car was added to my Tesla account, saw that Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) was on it. After the car was added to my Tesla.com account, I noticed that it now only says “Autopilot”. I’ve...
teslamotorsclub.com
I suspect they would also only remove FSD on cars with old hardware, since FSD on those cars is a liability that will require new hardware to be installed in the future. On HW 3.0 cars, they could just leave it turned on...
DefenderNM
Member
I plan to keep the car about 5 years and plan to use FSD, but knowing it may increase the resale value 5k or more in 5 years would be worth it for me.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
I'm also assuming the resale value of FSD will go up 20% after the price increase, so maybe $6k.
TresLA
Member
It is a valid counterpoint if you don't misunderstand what's stated. As I've already clarified above (FSD price increase on Jan 17), this was in response to how Wall Street valued Apple BEFORE the software/subscription push. Apple was already top dog back in 2011. Will subscription services continue to grow? Again, yes. But their business model has not reflected that thus far, all the while being highly favored and valued in the equities market.
sperkin
Active Member
I agree. Government will make sure of that. Just like air bags, ABS, and 4 wheel disc brakes . Those were added options on fancy cars, but now all standard. FSD will be standard one day and required on all cars like seat belts.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
With a 2021 Plaid I had to decide today to buy it or not.
My decision-making is in the context of owning a 2014 P85DL with AP for many years. I got very very used to using AP on highways and doing lane changes around slow traffic with a flick of the wrist. It was a very pleasant way to do everyday highway commutes and especially road trips. I also have a Tesla Model 3 with EAP (and thus lane change) in the car pool as well. So I am very used to this functionality and find it very valuable.
Without FSD my plaid cannot do the AP lane changes and that is unacceptable and this price change finally forces me to get what I wanted and was just too lazy to add.
I also see the FSD purchase as not just purchasing what FSD does now (the lane change functionality, and regular summon, etc.) but also what it will do in the future for the life of the car.
@n2mb_racing resale analysis further makes this an easy choice, as does the fact the Plaid with FSD is still inflation-adjusted cheaper than the P85D.
Because Elon has represented things like : we will land rockets, we will provide internet from space, we will build a factory in Shanghai, Berlin, Nevada, we will build a model 3, we will build a model Y, we will make a superfast Model S --- and he delivers. It may not be on his obviously optimistic schedule (or may accelerate the schedule as he did with the Model 3), but he has a pretty good track record of delivering. It is so odd that people do not see this.
Yes it does. AP lane change with the turn signal works great. A different thing is the NOA auto lane change which I agree is less useful when you care about optimizing your speed and lane choice.
My decision-making is in the context of owning a 2014 P85DL with AP for many years. I got very very used to using AP on highways and doing lane changes around slow traffic with a flick of the wrist. It was a very pleasant way to do everyday highway commutes and especially road trips. I also have a Tesla Model 3 with EAP (and thus lane change) in the car pool as well. So I am very used to this functionality and find it very valuable.
Without FSD my plaid cannot do the AP lane changes and that is unacceptable and this price change finally forces me to get what I wanted and was just too lazy to add.
I also see the FSD purchase as not just purchasing what FSD does now (the lane change functionality, and regular summon, etc.) but also what it will do in the future for the life of the car.
@n2mb_racing resale analysis further makes this an easy choice, as does the fact the Plaid with FSD is still inflation-adjusted cheaper than the P85D.
Because Elon has represented things like : we will land rockets, we will provide internet from space, we will build a factory in Shanghai, Berlin, Nevada, we will build a model 3, we will build a model Y, we will make a superfast Model S --- and he delivers. It may not be on his obviously optimistic schedule (or may accelerate the schedule as he did with the Model 3), but he has a pretty good track record of delivering. It is so odd that people do not see this.
Yes it does. AP lane change with the turn signal works great. A different thing is the NOA auto lane change which I agree is less useful when you care about optimizing your speed and lane choice.
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Two perspectives:
1) Shareholder perspective: Eventually vision came true. Even though the schedule was not kept, TSLA stock price has increased a lot. Value was created.
2) Customer perspective: Money was paid for a promise that it will work later. That later never happened and expectations were not met. Money was lost, it is a scam.
These are very different perspectives. Both true.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
Trying to more tightly control for different options, I think Tesla values FSD at about $7k. Compare the last two lines. I tried to focus on the same model year (2018), and as many options the same as possible.
| Model | w/ FSD | w/o FSD | Difference |
| Model S P100D | 95,850 | 88,125 | 7,725 |
| Model S 75D | 74,229 | 63,060 | 11,169 |
| All Model S | 83,377 | 73,185 | 10,192 |
| All Model X | 107,441 | 91,355 | 16,086 |
| Model S P100D (all colors, 21") | 96,750 | 85,600 | 11,150 |
| Model S P100D (GREY, 21") | 97,800 | 90,367 | 7,433 |
| Model S P100D (Red, 21") | 94,100 | 83,725 | 10,375 |
| Model S HW 3 | 83,054 | 71,210 | 11,844 |
| Model S P100D (21", HW3, pre-Raven) | 94,790 | 82,433 | 12,357 |
| Model S P100DL 2018, 21", Smart Air, Ultra HiFi, Prem Int., HW3 | 93,911 | 86,800 | 7,111 |
| Model S 75D 2018, 19", Smart Air, Glass Roof, Prem Int, HW3 | 73,513 | 66,900 | 6,613 |
| Average Model S resale value of FSD | 10,187 |
FSD money was paid for these delivered goods:
Basic Summon
Driver initiated auto lane change
Autopark
Navigate on AP
Smart Summon
Traffic light/stop sign recognition and control
The driver initiated auto lane change works great and many people use it all the time
The NOA is useful to enable on novel routes where you don't have the usual navigation voice but might miss a turn off
Basic Summon is useful for many people
Autopark (especially into tight garages) is useful for many
The navigating on city streets and eventual FSD I always understood to essentially just be a pre payment at a fixed price (where that price is likely to increase) for product that may or may not be delivered in my lifetime.
I agree that some people who don't manage their expectations by properly weighing and assessing all information that is clearly available to them might be disappointed.
I wish auto park was more reliable at appearing in my ui. I’ve used it a few times when no one is around and I spend a whole of time to get it to recognize I want it. I’ve never used it in a real world situation. Solely because it’s never been ready to use.
Nav on AP has an unfixed annoying bug where ‘cancel lane change’ is nearly useless. After arguing with that thing I’ve gotten into the habit of just turning it off.
Additionally the AP of N-AP has become unusable in anything other then stop & go traffic due to the occasional phantom breaking. So I can’t really use NAp for that reason too. The issue is pretty rare for me, but it’s jarring and my passenger gets pretty upset at it… it’s not useable at it’s currently quality level.
I do feel that they could fix these things, but whatever reason they’re not priorities. At least for FSD I can wait wait for the features to be more complete before buying it next time.
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