FSD Upgrade Email

[Fernand]

I think it's totally fine for people to buy into this, eyes wide open, for whatever reason they want. To support the development, to have a cool toy, to be able to track progress, to get the latest 3.0 hardware which might improve safety, to get the FSD features, etc.

There just seems to be a lot of confusion about what is actually being promised here - and it is not really due to Tesla's website...it has to do with the social media pronouncements by various people , talk of robotaxis, Tesla YouTube fans, the media representations of what is being delivered, people's misperception of what the cars can do, etc.

I think as long as people realize that FSD is being promised as an L2 system for the city which can recognize and respond to street signs and lights and do "automatic" driving on city streets (and highways of course), and understand that "automatic" driving means the features "require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous," then people can proceed with their purchase, eyes wide open.

Will it progress beyond that? Maybe, someday! Is Tesla required to provide that progress to FSD owners, if it turns out the current hardware (with HW 3.0) can't do L3/L4/L5? No. Tesla can (and will!) come out with products with more capable hardware (better radars, better cameras, etc.) that can do L3/L4/L5 in the future, call it something else, say FSD 2.0, and there is no obligation for them to provide compensation for people purchasing FSD under the current description, which will not be as capable.

In the event the current hardware (HW 3.0 + sensing suite) turns out to not be capable of "achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers," there's no reason Tesla will need to update it, and no requirement for them to do so, as long as they have delivered the L2 automatic driving capabilities in the city with that hardware. The statement of this possibility is right there in the description of the product.

That's my take on it, anyway.

None of the above means you shouldn't buy it of course! It's a personal decision, and there are a lot of reasons to spend $3k on it - just have to understand what you're buying, and what the future holds, as with any product. Technology will march on and cars will truly drive themselves at some point - but Tesla's FSD is not promising to deliver that.

That's the problem. When Tesla says the car is not fully autonomous, they are speaking in the present tense, and that's 100% correct. Nowhere does it say clearly what the "full self-driving" capability WILL BE, when/as FSD matures. The end-point is not stated, except they say "As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates". I want that. They've said the 3.X CPU will be required to go past EAP. So I need that. Pretty simple.

This $3k, not $6K, pricing is evidently temporary, so waiting to upgrade your CPU, if you plan to keep the car more than say another year, will cost more. It does come down to expectations and whether the customer believes that Tesla is on track to deliver at least something like NOA on surface streets.

Some people have had bad experiences, but most of us have found both the car and company to be "good to excellent". Based on my experience to date, I believe Tesla's automation will cover more and more environments. Personally I deduce that fully autonomous operation, e.g. as in Robo-Taxis, will come, but after several years of refinement. Good enough for me, and I don't believe any other company can get "there" faster than Tesla. I plan to keep the car for several years, and I want the 3.X computer and whatever highest level of automation Tesla delivers "as it evolves".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

e.g. as in Robo-Taxis, will come, but after several years of refinement

Right, robotaxis may well come in that kind of timeframe (or not, I’m agnostic about the timeline). My point is that you are not buying a car that is guaranteed to be capable of being a robotaxi - even in the unlikely event Tesla accomplishes that in a couple years - because FSD is promising a level 2 system and your car may not have hardware required for robo-taxis or L3/L4/L5! You aren’t guaranteed a hardware upgrade for that...

 

[ibGeek]

It’s probably just a question of how they want to spend their money.

You already paid for FSD so Tesla has your money and a loose liability to deliver this to you. But on their dime and on their time with you having virtually zero leverage.

If you were in charge at Tesla and money is tight (and ethics don’t count), would you spend Tesla’s money on swapping FSD computers for old HW2.5 cars or try to get money through $3000 FOMO upgrades from people with EAP?

First, If this, if that... If the sky turned purple is just as accurate a statement.

Tesla is NOT short of money. And they are not out to screw anyone. Full Stop!

Do all of their decisions work out, no. But it does not automatically mean the company hates you and wants to see you loose your money and be miserable. If anything Tesla has shown a much higher standard of ethics than just about any other major corporation in existence today in the amount of transparency they provide.

The reason we have not seen HW3.0 deployment outside of new vehicles is simply one of logistics. Tesla is currently discussing how to do this without putting undo stress on an already taxed service infrastructure. They mentioned a while ago that until such time as HW3.0 showed an actual advantage over HW2.5 there simply was no need to upgrade. (I personally do not share this opinion as I too would like to see them ahead of the game) but currently the code for HW3.0 that is worth anything is on a separate development path so current HW3.0 drivers are not seeing it. Right now they are porting 2.5 to 3.0 while also developing standalone HW3.0 software. I'm reasonably certain now that Software V.10 will either be the last major release for 2.5 or the first for 3.0 stand alone. Either way, the need to upgrade to 3.0 is not that far away.

 

[Lanzer]

Looks like we're in another Elon loop, which goes:

1) Elon propose something crazy with an aggressive timeline
2) Everyone jump in and say "this is crazy it'll never work!"
3) Elon faces delays and technical challenges
4) Everyone say "this is proof that it will never happen!"
5) It happened.

If you ask me what's more impossible, building a rocket company to be successful or getting full self driving ready, I would choose the former. Of course FSD is hard, for many concerning reasons, but if it's not hard, it's not worth doing, and not worth believing in. If turns out FSD Lv5 was never achieved, I'd still be happy with FSD Lv 4 and a safer car.

But I completely understand how anyone might feel cheated if a $3000 (or $6000) product never come to fruition. The thought of taking this risk from a promise can be daunting.

 

[Octo]

First, If this, if that... If the sky turned purple is just as accurate a statement.

Tesla is NOT short of money. And they are not out to screw anyone. Full Stop!

Do all of their decisions work out, no. But it does not automatically mean the company hates you and wants to see you loose your money and be miserable. If anything Tesla has shown a much higher standard of ethics than just about any other major corporation in existence today in the amount of transparency they provide.

The reason we have not seen HW3.0 deployment outside of new vehicles is simply one of logistics. Tesla is currently discussing how to do this without putting undo stress on an already taxed service infrastructure. They mentioned a while ago that until such time as HW3.0 showed an actual advantage over HW2.5 there simply was no need to upgrade. (I personally do not share this opinion as I too would like to see them ahead of the game) but currently the code for HW3.0 that is worth anything is on a separate development path so current HW3.0 drivers are not seeing it. Right now they are porting 2.5 to 3.0 while also developing standalone HW3.0 software. I'm reasonably certain now that Software V.10 will either be the last major release for 2.5 or the first for 3.0 stand alone. Either way, the need to upgrade to 3.0 is not that far away.

Look, my opinion that they are not the most ethical bunch is based on what has happened with Tesla and their FSD promises since 2016.

Yoy can close your eyes and be all trusting of course.

I’d expect something like this from Tesla if I had bought EAP and was on HW2.5:

“We are excited to offer you the opportunity to upgrade to our highest level of driving assistance automation for the limited time discounted price of $3000. Please visit one of our Tesla stores to experience a demonstration of exciting new features like Enhanced Summon, which will allow your car to pick you up on a private parking lot. Really! We will schedule a replacement of your car’s computer with the latest technology based on Tesla’s proprietary neural net chip within 5 business days after upgrading.”

But instead we get a tweet that scares people into “OMGSH, I won’t be able to afford it if I don’t buy sight unseen NOW” and Service Centers that go incommunicado if someone mentions HW3 LOL!

And absolutely no confirmation when features like Enhanced Summon will actually be released...

 

[nepenthe]

Look, my opinion that they are not the most ethical bunch is based on what has happened with Tesla and their FSD promises since 2016.

Yoy can close your eyes and be all trusting of course.

I’d expect something like this from Tesla if I had bought EAP and was on HW2.5:

“We are excited to offer you the opportunity to upgrade to our highest level of driving assistance automation for the limited time discounted price of $3000. Please visit one of our Tesla stores to experience a demonstration of exciting new features like Enhanced Summon, which will allow your car to pick you up on a private parking lot. Really! We will schedule a replacement of your car’s computer with the latest technology based on Tesla’s proprietary neural net chip within 5 business days after upgrading.”

But instead we get a tweet that scares people into “OMGSH, I won’t be able to afford it if I don’t buy sight unseen NOW” and Service Centers that go incommunicado if someone mentions HW3 LOL!

And absolutely no confirmation when features like Enhanced Summon will actually be released...

What tweet are you referring to out of curiosity? The comment about how the price of the technology may gradually increase over time, as the feature-set expands? Or that of the potential ultimate end-value once FSD and the Taxi fleet ability are widely released?

Personally, I appreciate an engineer/technologist and CEO who engages and discusses his views and philosophy while trying to forecast those out into the future. From a pure market/economic perspective, if the value goes up substantially of the technology, the demand and subsequent cost will probably do the same - this is a reasonable expectation. Remember, not only is Tesla designing and building their vehicles in the US, they are also writing the software, which has a cost and as owners, we reap the continued benefits of the software updates. So on one hand, you appreciate the added value in receiving additional functionality by over-the-air software updates, but dislike/despise the idea that one of the primary goals of their software development, full self driving, that may be worth more and consequently, cost more in the future?

 

[MaryAnning3]

Just finished reading this thread. Lots of interesting, informative and entertaining comments. Thanks all.
I think I am going to pay the $3k. This might be more of a conundrum for people who buy cars more frequently, but I expect to keep my November 2018 Model 3 (LR, AWD, EAP) for at least 6 years.

What I am expecting to get for the $3k is HW3.x and continued improvement in the safety and functionality of my EAP. I am thinking there will be better (quicker) recognition of occluded objects, even more reliable steering through construction and places where lane markings are unusual, stop sign recognition, generally faster and safer recognition and response to everything...

I am thinking that if I do not pay this I could be frozen at an EAP with essentially current functionality (and HW2 hardware) and miss out on future improvements. Does that seem like an accurate assessment of the nature of the choice?

 

[Octo]

What tweet are you referring to out of curiosity? The comment about how the price of the technology may gradually increase over time, as the feature-set expands? Or that of the potential ultimate end-value once FSD and the Taxi fleet ability are widely released?

I was referring to the history of statements from Tesla’s CEO. A sample follows below.

With a history like that, I can’t understand how some people still give him the benefit of the doubt (“he is just optimistic”).

He either is dumb as a box of rocks or he fully knows that his FSD statements are lies and spouts them anyways ($$$). As he is successful (if his net worth is the measure), I don’t think he is dumb – he is just used to a certain set of people falling for his shtick over and over again.


To me, it’s like watching a stereotypical horror movie. The victims in these movies always make the worst decisions (“oh, it’s witching hour - let’s take the shortcut through the graveyard”) so I guess people who still believe Musk’s statements about FSD are like these characters in horror movies making these funny decisions.


2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years," Musk said in an interview with Fortune.

2016: “Tesla hopes its ghost in the machine will be fully ready by the end of next year, and the proof will be a cross country road trip. Musk said he could have a Tesla pick someone up from their home in LA and drop them off in the bright lights of Times Square, New York—then park itself. “It will do this without the need for a single touch, including the charger,” says Musk.

2017: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely”: Elon Musk about when FSD will noticeable be different from EAP

2018: “To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety,” Musk tweeted. “With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.”

2019: “Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16th”

 

[ibGeek]

Look, my opinion that they are not the most ethical bunch is based on what has happened with Tesla and their FSD promises since 2016.

Yoy can close your eyes and be all trusting of course.

I’d expect something like this from Tesla if I had bought EAP and was on HW2.5:

“We are excited to offer you the opportunity to upgrade to our highest level of driving assistance automation for the limited time discounted price of $3000. Please visit one of our Tesla stores to experience a demonstration of exciting new features like Enhanced Summon, which will allow your car to pick you up on a private parking lot. Really! We will schedule a replacement of your car’s computer with the latest technology based on Tesla’s proprietary neural net chip within 5 business days after upgrading.”

But instead we get a tweet that scares people into “OMGSH, I won’t be able to afford it if I don’t buy sight unseen NOW” and Service Centers that go incommunicado if someone mentions HW3 LOL!

And absolutely no confirmation when features like Enhanced Summon will actually be released...

You are most certainly entitled to your opinion. And I'm truly sorry that you feel that way.

 

[nepenthe]

I was referring to the history of statements from Tesla’s CEO. A sample follows below.

With a history like that, I can’t understand how some people still give him the benefit of the doubt (“he is just optimistic”).

He either is dumb as a box of rocks or he fully knows that his FSD statements are lies and spouts them anyways ($$$). As he is successful (if his net worth is the measure), I don’t think he is dumb – he is just used to a certain set of people falling for his shtick over and over again.


To me, it’s like watching a stereotypical horror movie. The victims in these movies always make the worst decisions (“oh, it’s witching hour - let’s take the shortcut through the graveyard”) so I guess people who still believe Musk’s statements about FSD are like these characters in horror movies making these funny decisions.


2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years," Musk said in an interview with Fortune.

2016: “Tesla hopes its ghost in the machine will be fully ready by the end of next year, and the proof will be a cross country road trip. Musk said he could have a Tesla pick someone up from their home in LA and drop them off in the bright lights of Times Square, New York—then park itself. “It will do this without the need for a single touch, including the charger,” says Musk.

2017: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely”: Elon Musk about when FSD will noticeable be different from EAP

2018: “To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety,” Musk tweeted. “With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.”

2019: “Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16th”

"I think we'll have ... in approximately", "noticeably be different from EAP" and "full self-driving features".

There's no doubt Elon time is a thing, much like Gwynne the COO of SpaceX agreed to. He has extremely optimistic timelines - that has certainly proven to be true. Though I think it's reasonable to believe FSD is an inevitability, even if the time-frame is longer than anticipated or tweeted. Personally I see no reason for it to be a shtick. Tesla would exist without Full-Self-Driving ambitions and still make great cars. Elon's business ventures have been materially successful to date, SpaceX included, even if most of his time-frames turn out to be considerably off - he seems to deliver on his intentions, most of the time to the extent I am aware.

 

[follow.johnny]

5 days and counting until we all decide to update to FSD or ignore the vaporware until FSD is actually released with usable features.

$3K FSD update might be the lowest we'll see priced (aside from the "Fire sale" earlier this year at $2k) $4k after August 16 and I could imagine prices be raises from there on out.

 

[ibGeek]

I was referring to the history of statements from Tesla’s CEO. A sample follows below.

With a history like that, I can’t understand how some people still give him the benefit of the doubt (“he is just optimistic”).

He either is dumb as a box of rocks or he fully knows that his FSD statements are lies and spouts them anyways ($$$). As he is successful (if his net worth is the measure), I don’t think he is dumb – he is just used to a certain set of people falling for his shtick over and over again.


To me, it’s like watching a stereotypical horror movie. The victims in these movies always make the worst decisions (“oh, it’s witching hour - let’s take the shortcut through the graveyard”) so I guess people who still believe Musk’s statements about FSD are like these characters in horror movies making these funny decisions.


2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years," Musk said in an interview with Fortune.

2016: “Tesla hopes its ghost in the machine will be fully ready by the end of next year, and the proof will be a cross country road trip. Musk said he could have a Tesla pick someone up from their home in LA and drop them off in the bright lights of Times Square, New York—then park itself. “It will do this without the need for a single touch, including the charger,” says Musk.

2017: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely”: Elon Musk about when FSD will noticeable be different from EAP

2018: “To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety,” Musk tweeted. “With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.”

2019: “Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16th”

2015 "I think" Not a promise but an optimistic opinion. During autonomy day Elon admitted that he underestimates time frames, but to his credit, as yet has never failed to deliver. Go back to the promise of re-usable rockets that fly up and then come back to land. People said the same about him then.

2016 "Again I point you to autonomy day where it was discussed why this did not happen. (I'm guessing you never watched this)

2017 Yep he is an ambitious guy. He missed this one.

2018 There have been significant safety implementations with V9 and though not ready for public consumption, V9 is mostly capable of FSD in the dev versions.

2019 um... August 16th hasn't even happened yet. So this was a bit of a stretch.

Hey I get it, your one of those folks that takes things at face value. He said Wednesday at one, therefor if it's not Wednesday at one it was a lie. Well software development doesn't work that way. And that is 100% what we are talking about here. Not hardware, but software.

It's a trap that all software developers fall in to. The end users (and most likely Elon) desperately want to know when they can expect a thing to be complete, and unfortunately for various reasons developers are compelled to provide one even though they know that the actual date of release is not in their control. Innovation happens at what ever speed it wants to.

I'm sure that this post has had zero affect on your opinion, but I felt compelled to reply.

 

[Octo]

I'm sure that this post has had zero affect on your opinion, but I felt compelled to reply.

I adjust my opinion based on information so why do you think your post has no effect?

Your post adjusts another tiny bit of what I think about people in general. For example, to me, like in my movie metaphor, you are another example of someone who chooses the path through the graveyard for reasons that are perfect to you but a puzzle to me.

I’m trying to wrap my mind around why people still make decisions that to me personally don’t make sense.

You are right that your post didn’t change my opinion that selling FSD is borderline fraudulent but it definitely impacted my opinion about people.

 

[ibGeek]

I adjust my opinion based on information so why do you think your post has no effect?

Your post adjusts another tiny bit of what I think about people in general. For example, to me, like in my movie metaphor, you are another example of someone who chooses the path through the graveyard for reasons that are perfect to you but a puzzle to me.

I’m trying to wrap my mind around why people still make decisions that to me personally don’t make sense.

You are right that your post didn’t change my opinion that selling FSD is borderline fraudulent but it definitely impacted my opinion about people.

Here is my feeling about people:

They are quick to judge, especially if they posses an opinion that is in conflict with them.
The often miss clues laid out before them that are subtle out of necessity but consistently available to them.
They find it easier to believe that everyone is operating from a position of malice, when more often than not, reality dictates otherwise and in doing so create the very malice they would really rather avoid.
They often miss out on amazing possibilities as a result of most of the above.

 

[boriszima]

5 days and counting until we all decide to update to FSD or ignore the vaporware until FSD is actually released with usable features.

$3K FSD update might be the lowest we'll see priced (aside from the "Fire sale" earlier this year at $2k) $4k after August 16 and I could imagine prices be raises from there on out.

Per email "The price of this upgrade will increase on August 16." Price will go up on August 16th, not the next day. But who knows, maybe Tesla will extend it. At least that how the email reads to me.

 

[NoMoGas]

So, I just got an email from Tesla that offers me an upgrade to FSD for $3,000 as an owner who has purchased EAP.

Only problem is I do not have EAP. I bought my car at the end of April after the transition to AP.

I did click on the link and my account is correct that the price is $6,000 right now.

I still do have the trial of FSD (NoAP, etc.) for more than the 60 days I was told I would have it. Guessing it may have been stretched out. I only used it a couple of times to try it out so no biggie when it is taken away.

Just thought it funny I get this email. I guess par for the course that Tesla doesn't even know what their customers have. LOL!

Yea, you aren't getting any discount there, they are just offering you FSD at current retail.

 

[MaryAnning3]

I am thinking that this $3k will get me something very tangible. That is, an HW3 chip in my car within a year. I am thinking that without paying the $3k I will not get that. I don't need FSD to make this a worthwhile investment, just HW3 and the improvements that will go with that. If I thought I could get HW3 without paying the $3k, then I might not buy this upgrade, but I don't think that EAP owners will get HW3. Am I not understanding this correctly? Please let me know if you agree or disagree.

PS.
I don't think there will be any big "rollout problem". HW3 is a small chip that is cheap to produce and takes a few minutes to put in your car.

 

[MaryAnning3]

He either is dumb as a box of rocks or he fully knows that his FSD statements are lies

None of your options make sense to me. Your assessments seem filled with emotion rather than logic.
Additionally, one can reasonably infer that Musk has an IQ closer to 200 than 100...

 

[Octo]

None of your options make sense to me. Your assessments seem filled with emotion rather than logic.
Additionally, one can reasonably infer that Musk has an IQ closer to 200 than 100...

Yeah, which makes his strategy truly disappointing.

 

[evannole]

Just finished reading this thread. Lots of interesting, informative and entertaining comments. Thanks all.
I think I am going to pay the $3k. This might be more of a conundrum for people who buy cars more frequently, but I expect to keep my November 2018 Model 3 (LR, AWD, EAP) for at least 6 years.

What I am expecting to get for the $3k is HW3.x and continued improvement in the safety and functionality of my EAP. I am thinking there will be better (quicker) recognition of occluded objects, even more reliable steering through construction and places where lane markings are unusual, stop sign recognition, generally faster and safer recognition and response to everything...

I am thinking that if I do not pay this I could be frozen at an EAP with essentially current functionality (and HW2 hardware) and miss out on future improvements. Does that seem like an accurate assessment of the nature of the choice?

This is precisely why I went ahead and paid the $3,000 a week or so ago. I really don't care about FSD on surface streets, but do want to see continued EAP enhancement on the highway, and I think that HW3 (or whichever one they eventually install in our cars) will help in that regard. If they'd made the Autonomy Day presentation at the same time as or before they did the $2,000 sale in March, I would have pulled the trigger then, as that's effectively what sold me on the notion that HW3 would truly make a significant difference.