FT says Tesla risks being overtaken by the competition

[jbcarioca]

Tesla risks being overtaken by the competition
Traditional carmakers have decades of experience running efficient production lines
November 9, 2017

This article is behind a paywall but I have used a free copy so maybe the link will work.


"...The doubts are well founded. As of last month, the total number of Tesla vehicles ever produced reached 250,000. Volkswagen and Toyota each make that number every 10 days. The traditional carmakers have decades of experience that give them real advantages in building efficient production lines and managing long supply chains..."

They go on to say that GM is in a better position to dominate because of their success with the Bolt.

This is pretty solid FUD, I think. It is well reasoned although it ignores GM's lack fo battery supply and the role of LG, among other things.

They do credit Musk with creating buzz and admit that he might "...pull a technological rabbit out of his hat..."

 

[30seconds]

Over 5 years since the Model S started shipping.

The best that the "automotive industry" has done is the Bolt, a ship date for the i-pace and a bunch of fake announcements from VW/ Audi

 

[aesculus]

IMHO EV's will fall into two classes:

1. Cars you commute in - just have to satisfy the daily range via overnight charging
2. Cars you plan long distance travel in - it will be about how fast you can charge and overall trip time

I see little to no movement on item #2 outside of Tesla. So the market may just abandon that one in hopes of being competitive in #1.

 

[TampaRich]

400,000 preorders. Unprecedented.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's all about making the battery packs. Who of that group is any good at making battery packs?

 

[electracity]

It's all about making the battery packs. Who of that group is any good at making battery packs?

Is Tesla good at making battery packs?
None of the majors will have a major problem with batteries or battery packs.

GM news today:
GM challenges Tesla with promise of profitable electric cars

 

[cwerdna]

Renault-Nissan Alliance has sold over 480K EVs as of July 2017 per Renault-Nissan Alliance Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Pass 480,000. This number seems to include Mitsubishi Motors since Nissan bought a controlling stake.

In Japan, over 3,600 2018 Leafs shipped in October: Nissan Shows How To Launch An EV Right, Almost 4,000 LEAF Sales In Debut Month For Japan

The counts that the OP mentioned are about right. The largest automakers in the world each produce about 10 million vehicles/year.

There is Nissan-Renault Officially World's Largest Automaker At Halftime.

 

[neroden]

Renault is in a pretty decent position; Nissan would have been if they hadn't been losing ground through delay; and GM might eventually be if they really decide to scale up.

Tesla has always been at risk of being overtaken by the competiton. But they haven't been overtaken yet and they won't be overtaken in 2018 or 2019. We can look again in late 2018 and see whether the competition is getting ahead, or whether Tesla is.

 

[eye.surgeon]

It's an interesting article. Other manufacturers are building battery facilities also. I love my Model S after 3 years, but I also loved my palm pilot when they dominated their market...anyone else using a palm device lately? They must continue to evolve. And I think they will succeed. But it's not a guarantee by any means. Reasonable chance Tesla could end up being the EV line for GM or VW. It would take a big stock drop for that to happen.

 

[GoTslaGo]

It's an interesting article. Other manufacturers are building battery facilities also. I love my Model S after 3 years, but I also loved my palm pilot when they dominated their market...anyone else using a palm device lately? They must continue to evolve. And I think they will succeed. But it's not a guarantee by any means. Reasonable chance Tesla could end up being the EV line for GM or VW. It would take a big stock drop for that to happen.

I suspect that if there is ever a big stock drop so that Tesla could be bought out, that it would be Elon buying it, potentially with equity/money from SpaceX—in other words, he would likely take it private. Never mind the cars, the infrastructure that Tesla has is tremendously valuable (Fremont, GF1 & 2, Superchargers).

 

[CHGolferJim]

The major U. S. car companies produce huge volumes, but until very recently the quality was pretty poor. Their quality has improved significantly recently according to consumers and experts. Perhaps it was always about costs and selling prices, but without access to their cost accounting, how does anyone know how efficient they could be absent legacy cost absorption? The next question is could they ever get to that place? All that assumes they can surmount the battery supply challenge.

 

[bhzmark]

Is Tesla good at making battery packs?
None of the majors will

Not just the battery but also the battery management system. Compare Tesla battery longevity to the Nissan Leaf battery longevity and degradation. GM does seem better with their volt and bolt bms.