Full Autonomy All But Confirmed for 3, "We're doing the obvious thing"

[JeffK]

Both are true. Will people try and avoid hitting a dog in a road? The damage to the car would be minimal. Some won't, but most would.

However, I would argue that decisions about the proper behavior in cars is more driven by ethics than morals, and ethics is definitely something that can be programmed into a computer, probably with better results than the split second decisions mostly driven by instinct just before a crash (yes, it is better to damage the car than hit a person, but not to swerve wildly and flip the car, thus killing yourself as well as the person in question).

You can always do what Google patented and simply brake as much as possible then hit the person and have them stick on your car.

 

[FirstSea]

I hope AP comes with Reckless Mode, which ensures the car drives away after hitting anything.

 

[Afdyce]

I hate that idea, looks tacky

 

[EVNow]

However, I would argue that decisions about the proper behavior in cars is more driven by ethics than morals, and ethics is definitely something that can be programmed into a computer, probably with better results than the split second decisions mostly driven by instinct just before a crash (yes, it is better to damage the car than hit a person, but not to swerve wildly and flip the car, thus killing yourself as well as the person in question).

This is absolutely the case.

Recently there was a terrible tragedy in Bellevue, WA. Someone tried to avoid getting hit by another car - swerved and hit a baby in a stroller on the sidewalk killing the baby instantly.

Whenever I read anything about "ethical" choices and whether AI can be as good as humans, I'm reminded of this - and I hope AI is better.

 

[TacC]

In the latest shareholder meeting, Elon talked about not wanting to shove too much new technology into the 3 like they did with the X. At the same time, he talked about putting new technology in the S and X lines first (largely due to high cost on first iterations, though probably also so it can be tested on a smaller audience first, though they won't likely say that in public).

So....if there is ever to be autonomous driving, I would expect to see it in the S and/or X first. And then maybe it will make it's way to the 3 a year or two after that. In other words, no autonomous driving for the 3. At least, not at first.

You can read just about anything into the "doing the obvious thing" comment, as what Elon finds obvious, many others will not. I might think the obvious thing would be to drop the electric drive train for the 3 and use a gas engine. Obviously, I don't really think that. Or do I? You don't know!

Agreed. There is probably too much optimism around the features and capabilities of the M3. We shouldn't conflate full autonomy with sustainable transport. An aspiration cannot get in the way of a mission.

Tesla's best move is to stick to the basics with the M3 and leave the experimentation to the S and X. There are 400,000 reservations with no promise of autonomy. Why raise the cost and difficulty of manufacturing?

 

[Booga]

Agreed. There is probably too much optimism around the features and capabilities of the M3. We shouldn't conflate full autonomy with sustainable transport. An aspiration cannot get in the way of a mission.

Tesla's best move is to stick to the basics with the M3 and leave the experimentation to the S and X. There are 400,000 reservations with no promise of autonomy. Why raise the cost and difficulty of manufacturing?

1) they could get cancellations
2) they need to remain far ahead of the competition
3) their brand image is all about technology and they need to maintain that

 

[cronosx]

This is absolutely the case.

Recently there was a terrible tragedy in Bellevue, WA. Someone tried to avoid getting hit by another car - swerved and hit a baby in a stroller on the sidewalk killing the baby instantly.

Whenever I read anything about "ethical" choices and whether AI can be as good as humans, I'm reminded of this - and I hope AI is better.

The CAR will probably see the baby ( unless it's obscured by something ) and the basic "hit a car, not a pedestrian" is of course a basic concept for everyone, i don't think anyone will have something to say about this.
A person will probably not be able to see the baby and calculate that is better to hit a car, it has no time for this, else i think everyone will choose to hit the car, even if they don't have an ethic, killing a person is surely more costly ( jail / payment / etc ) than hit a car.

The etic problem is when you have to choose from 2 type of "problem" with the same class.

The choose are simple:
- Class A: Hit nothing
- Class B: Hit animated object
- Class C: Hit car
- Class D: Hit pedestrian

When you have to choose from class B and class A, surely, class A
B vs D? B, C vs B? B etc...

The problem is C vs C, or D vs D, but in this case an human surely can't choose, it has no time, a computer on the other hand, probably can't choose from an element from the same class and will probably choose the less risky ( more breaking space or similar ), but as said, it's not an ethical decision, it's just tath you can't make a decision

 

[zenmaster]

By the time AI is that advanced, the baby carriage will have evasive maneuver capability.

 

[malcolm]

You can always do what Google patented and simply brake as much as possible then hit the person and have them stick on your car.

The AP can hunt down Boston Dynamics's Petman? That's awesome

Now that's what I call a hood ornament!

 

[grommet]

So, does anyone still believe Model 3 will be fully autonomous at launch now that Tesla's Master Plan, Pt. 2 is out... with it's more realistic statements about the path to full autonomy?

 

[Booga]

So, does anyone still believe Model 3 will be fully autonomous at launch now that Tesla's Master Plan, Pt. 2 is out... with it's more realistic statements about the path to full autonomy?

I'm just hoping for cameras all the way around to support future software pushes and/or a relatively inexpensive upgrade path to whatever comes out.

 

[vinnie97]

I'll just be thrilled if they give the option of adaptive CC option versus the full autonomous suite.

 

[zenmaster]

There are apparently at least 103 forum members that have no clue what fully autonomous means.

 

[Burnardr]

So, does anyone still believe Model 3 will be fully autonomous at launch now that Tesla's Master Plan, Pt. 2 is out... with it's more realistic statements about the path to full autonomy?

No but I never thought it would have it either. I like Elon's idea of sharing cars when you don't use them but I don't trust people and it doesn't solve the problem of commuting where everyone needs to be on the road at the same time.

 

[jkk_]

No but I never thought it would have it either. I like Elon's idea of sharing cars when you don't use them but I don't trust people and it doesn't solve the problem of commuting where everyone needs to be on the road at the same time.

Yup. If someone is willing to share their car then I think they should be allowed to (context: Uber is currently illegal here) but doesn't me I'm going to do it.

 

[Chopr147]

Sharing would have the car itself doing the driving so at least you don't have to worry about drivers. But, have you ever seen the backseat of a NYC taxi? The interior would take a good hit.

 

[Topher]

Sharing would have the car itself doing the driving so at least you don't have to worry about drivers. But, have you ever seen the backseat of a NYC taxi? The interior would take a good hit.

So you would mess up someone else's nice car that was giving you a ride, even though it would mean that it was the last ride you would ever get?

Thank you kindly.

 

[BluestarE3]

So you would mess up someone else's nice car that was giving you a ride, even though it would mean that it was the last ride you would ever get?

Thank you kindly.

That would hold true if people were always civil, respectful of other people's property and sober. That's not always the case. Sure, he may never get to ride in your Tesla (or anybody else's rental Tesla) again, but there's still the matter of your having to clean out puke or super-sized slushy from your seats. All it takes is one jerk and one time. And the person may not even be a jerk normally.

I'm sure a lot of people, especially millennials, would love the ability to share their underutilized vehicles with others and make some money in the process. That's great. However, there are many of us who have no desire to do so for the reasons presented.

 

[Chopr147]

My point was as a Uber vehicle it would be subject to many people. Some considerate, some not so much. Food, drinks causing stains ,wrappers and garbage etc,,,,,,,,
And I am much too OCD and clean for that

 

[alseTrick]

I'll just be thrilled if they give the option of adaptive CC option versus the full autonomous suite.

I would LOVE that. I have next to no use for summon. I can live without the parking assist feature (especially since it still needs refining). And I don't need autosteering.

But if I could turn cruise control on and have the vehicle automatically slow down/speed up while I steer, OMG Becky.