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Future of FSD after "traffic light & stop sign response" release

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Elon just confirmed they consider "making turns" through intersections part of Autosteer on the Q1 Earnings Call.

Yes, he also said that they are collecting data on 1 million intersections per month so he feels confident that "traffic light control" with no confirmation as well as turning at intersections will come by end of year.
 
autosteer is part of the base autopilot pkg, right?

but the current stop/light feature is only for full fsd owners.

I'm confused.

Right now, "autosteer" is what Tesla calls lane keeping. That is in the base autopilot package.

FSD owners get the "traffic light and stop sign" feature where the car stops at traffic lights and stop signs. In the near future, FSD owners will also get the ability to turn at intersections which will be added to "autosteer".

Basic AP:
- Autosteer = lane keeping

FSD:
- Autosteer = lane keeping + turning at intersections (coming soon)
 
We finally have a technical definition of "Elon time" as defined by the man himself.

He described timeline guesses as a normal curve, and estimated he's giving the 50th percentile timeline. So expect half of Elon's promises to be early, and half to be late... But then he ended with "punctuality is not my strong suit" :confused:
 
We finally have a technical definition of "Elon time" as defined by the man himself.

He described timeline guesses as a normal curve, and estimated he's giving the 50th percentile timeline. So expect half of Elon's promises to be early, and half to be late... But then he ended with "punctuality is not my strong suit" :confused:

So "50% of the time I am right, 50% I am wrong, except when I am not". That sounds pretty meaningless honestly.
 
More FSD talk from today's Earnings Call:

“We will release more and more functionality. (FSD). Need to get very good at complex turns and intersections. Busy malls and office parks. It’s all tracking very well. Autopilot engineering tram is extremely talented group. Will have functionality for FSD by end of the year.”

Sounds like making turns at intersections is the next big feature that Tesla will be working on now that traffic light feature is out.

The reference to "busy malls and office parks" sounds like a reference to reverse summon or auto park where the car will be able to navigate more complex parking spaces.

So I think we have a good idea of what features Tesla is working on now. Timelines are of course a different matter.

"I think we could see Robotaxis.... next year".

Every year Elon promises robotaxis "next year". I guess one year, he will finally be right.
 
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Before they start working on turning at intersections they need to get normal lane keeping assist working on non-highways.

The current software is interesting but I find that the car is now more skittish than ever before.

I also want to know when Tesla will implement obstacle avoidance on city streets. Because I have a situation now with construction blocking the right lane and you have to move over to the left lane. When will AP do that on city streets? Because that seems like a pretty important feature if you want to do robotaxis.
 
Perhaps a good way of describing Tesla's "feature complete" FSD is as an "end-to-end driver assist". It is a L2 driver assist but one that can perform many of the dynamic driving tasks (DDT) from the moment you leave your house to the moment you arrive and park.

If we look at the feature list on the website, I think we see this. We got features like summon that can handle the start of a commute, like leaving a parking space and navigating a parking lot, we got lane keeping and adaptive cruise control that can do a lot of the cruising during a commute, We got NOA that can handle a lot of the highway driving part, we now have stopping at traffic lights and stops signs which happens a lot during city driving. Soon, Tesla aims to add turning at intersections so that the car can follow a route through an intersection. We also have auto park, and "reverse summon" coming soon, to handle the end of a commute when we need to park at our destination. So when it is "feature complete", it will handle a lot of the DDT from start to finish. And while the driver will need to monitor the environment and be in control, the car may be able to handle some commutes without any driver interventions depending on the driving environment.
 
It's obvious that it's using map data because it knows that a stoplight is coming up before it can physically see it with the cameras.

While I have no doubt map data is being used, the long range camera should be able to spot the traffic light fairly easily. The warning pops up 400 feet before the intersection, which is about 130 meters. The long range camera has a range listed as 250 meters, with a 35° field of view. At 130 meters, a 40 cm wide traffic light would be about 9.7 pixels in diameter on an HD camera, which is pretty clearly identifiable as a traffic light.
 
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While I have no doubt map data is being used, the long range camera should be able to spot the traffic light fairly easily. The warning pops up 400 feet before the intersection, which is about 130 meters. The long range camera has a range listed as 250 meters, with a 35° field of view. At 130 meters, a 40 cm wide traffic light would be about 9.7 pixels in diameter on an HD camera, which is pretty clearly identifiable as a traffic light.


"traffic control" warnings are showing up 600 feet in advance.

Including numerous situations where it's physically impossible to see the traffic control device at that distance due to curvature, hill, or other physical obstruction.

So it appears to be using roughly something like this:

600 foot warning if map says there's a control device coming up... (in theory the camera COULD see as far as 750 feet if it has a clear unobstructed view- but I've yet to see any video of anyone getting a warning more than 600 feet out- and the fact it seems to CONSISTENTLY start at 600 suggests that's the distance based on the map it defaults to using)

and then

Some typically shorter warning if the map didn't say there was one- but the camera sees one anyway- distance of warning varies by how far out the camera sees it.
 
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While I have no doubt map data is being used, the long range camera should be able to spot the traffic light fairly easily. The warning pops up 400 feet before the intersection, which is about 130 meters. The long range camera has a range listed as 250 meters, with a 35° field of view. At 130 meters, a 40 cm wide traffic light would be about 9.7 pixels in diameter on an HD camera, which is pretty clearly identifiable as a traffic light.

It should, but I don't think more than one camera (medium-range) is being used yet
 
I have not seen this discussed anywhere just yet. Does anyone know how FSD "sees" traffic to the right and left at an intersection? I have 2020.12.6 and am loving what I see so far. It is another significant step in the development of the autopilot. But it got me thinking about those next steps. Coming out of my neighborhood, there is a stop sign at a "T" intersection so I must turn either right or left onto a pretty busy road with traffic going 40-45 mph. For turns to be enabled, the car will need to "see" that it is safe to do so. However, I am not aware of any sensors that can look to the right or left for 100-200 feet to insure that a turn is safe from a traffic standpoint. Anyone know anything about this?
 
I have not seen this discussed anywhere just yet. Does anyone know how FSD "sees" traffic to the right and left at an intersection? I have 2020.12.6 and am loving what I see so far. It is another significant step in the development of the autopilot. But it got me thinking about those next steps. Coming out of my neighborhood, there is a stop sign at a "T" intersection so I must turn either right or left onto a pretty busy road with traffic going 40-45 mph. For turns to be enabled, the car will need to "see" that it is safe to do so. However, I am not aware of any sensors that can look to the right or left for 100-200 feet to insure that a turn is safe from a traffic standpoint. Anyone know anything about this?


There's 8 cameras on the car. 360 degree field of view. So of course it can see left/right.


Plenty of videos out there showing it too

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