General California charging discussion

[Electroman]

Moderator note: The first 17 posts of this thread were moved out of the "Holiday Travel" thread in the California forum.

All these makes me wonder, is it even practical to keep scaling like this, if there are 2x or 3x the no. of Teslas on the road in say three years? Or how about the volume on the road in 10 years?

Now one might argue that 90% of charging is done at home which is true, and therefore the argument goes, that for the remaining 10% on-the-go charging you only need 10% of charging stations as we have gas pumps.

BUT here is the key difference: the characteristics of pumping gas is different from Charging an EV. Pumping gas is 5 minutes from zero to full. Charging a 400 mile EV is close to 60 minutes from 10 to 95%. So the fact that EVs occupy a station for a very long period means you need a large number of them. Perhaps EV DC chargers have to be just as ubiquitous as gas stations today in every major Xn when in 2030 most of the cars sold will be EVs.

 

[israndy]

Yes, this is what EV fans keep saying when people ask why not convert gas stations to charge stations, the curve is too different to have the 5 spaces at a gas station economically pay for that corner lot. Instead we'll see more charging in urban centers at the ends of the parking lots or tops of parking structures, and giant lots on the freeways at most exits that currently have gas stations.

Electric also has the benefit that for those really out of the way spots they can have solar and battery with StarLink connectivity, maybe 120v backup. Like the route to Alaska and Hwy 50 across the middle of fly-over country.

 

[Zorg]

Real issue is going for other EVs. The non Tesla SC are nowhere plentiful enough to support the oncoming wave of CCS based EVs.

 

[Jeepxj]

All these makes me wonder, is it even practical to keep scaling like this, if there are 2x or 3x the no. of Teslas on the road in say three years? Or how about the volume on the road in 10 years?

Now one might argue that 90% of charging is done at home which is true, and therefore the argument goes, that for the remaining 10% on-the-go charging you only need 10% of charging stations as we have gas pumps.

BUT here is the key difference: the characteristics of pumping gas is different from Charging an EV. Pumping gas is 5 minutes from zero to full. Charging a 400 mile EV is close to 60 minutes from 10 to 95%. So the fact that EVs occupy a station for a very long period means you need a large number of them. Perhaps EV DC chargers have to be just as ubiquitous as gas stations today in every major Xn when in 2030 most of the cars sold will be EVs.

you assume charging time stays the same. and they dont keep deploying SC's.


also how many people do their thanksgiving day trip within driving range from charging at home? thats why i dont think we need a 1:1 replacement of fill up spots.

 

[Jeepxj]

Yes, this is what EV fans keep saying when people ask why not convert gas stations to charge stations, the curve is too different to have the 5 spaces at a gas station economically pay for that corner lot. Instead we'll see more charging in urban centers at the ends of the parking lots or tops of parking structures, and giant lots on the freeways at most exits that currently have gas stations.

Electric also has the benefit that for those really out of the way spots they can have solar and battery with StarLink connectivity, maybe 120v backup. Like the route to Alaska and Hwy 50 across the middle of fly-over country.

I like this concept a lot. take a 15kw feed and store it for a many x kw charging session. but it needs to be out of the way to allow for recharge times

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[Jeepxj]

Real issue is going for other EVs. The non Tesla SC are nowhere plentiful enough to support the oncoming wave of CCS based EVs.

IIRC EA alone has more plugs than tesla.

 

[Big Earl]

IIRC EA alone has more plugs than tesla.

No way.

According to Electrify America’s website, there are 2,212 CCS chargers across 673 locations in the US.

According to supercharge.info, Tesla has over 12,000 charging stalls across 1,218 Supercharger locations in the US.

 

[Zorg]

IIRC EA alone has more plugs than tesla.

I doubt it. Hwy 5 between SF bay area and LA shows 20-30 EA stalls and maybe 200 Tesla SC pedestals. I have more anecdotes like this, but it seems to me that the EA network is not sufficient for mass adoption.

 

[Dave EV]

BUT here is the key difference: the characteristics of pumping gas is different from Charging an EV. Pumping gas is 5 minutes from zero to full. Charging a 400 mile EV is close to 60 minutes from 10 to 95%. So the fact that EVs occupy a station for a very long period means you need a large number of them. Perhaps EV DC chargers have to be just as ubiquitous as gas stations today in every major Xn when in 2030 most of the cars sold will be EVs.

Well, I don't know about most people, it's rare that a charging stop exceeds 30 minutes for me in my Model 3 unless it takes longer because I'm getting food or something. There's really no reason to charge above 70-80% in a Tesla most of the time and 15-20 minutes. Yeah, that's only about 200 miles of freeway range, but I expect this to continue to improve over time.

Still - I expect a lot more charging stations to be needed and I would continue to expect short waits along busy corridors on busy travel days. Gas stations also usually have waits as well during this time. It would be interesting to count the number of Tesla charging posts to gas pumps along I5 between Los Angeles and the Bay Area as a comparison.

 

[Jeepxj]

No way.

According to Electrify America’s website, there are 2,212 CCS chargers across 673 locations in the US.

According to supercharge.info, Tesla has over 12,000 charging stalls across 1,218 Supercharger locations in the US.

Cunningham's law strikes again.

 

[1100MCM]

Well, I don't know about most people, it's rare that a charging stop exceeds 30 minutes for me in my Model 3 unless it takes longer because I'm getting food or something. There's really no reason to charge above 70-80% in a Tesla most of the time and 15-20 minutes. Yeah, that's only about 200 miles of freeway range, but I expect this to continue to improve over time.

Still - I expect a lot more charging stations to be needed and I would continue to expect short waits along busy corridors on busy travel days. Gas stations also usually have waits as well during this time. It would be interesting to count the number of Tesla charging posts to gas pumps along I5 between Los Angeles and the Bay Area as a comparison.

Before my first Tesla in March 2020 I used to only pump gas at Costco both at home and on road-trips. Being in a Costco line for gas was frequently a 20+ minute wait and it’s not like I could go into the store while I waited. Between home charging and being able to have a snack or bathroom break during supercharging stops, Tesla charging is still a net benefit compared to ICE gasoline fill ups.

 

[bxr140]

Well, I don't know about most people, it's rare that a charging stop exceeds 30 minutes for me in my Model 3 unless it takes longer because I'm getting food or something. There's really no reason to charge above 70-80% in a Tesla most of the time and 15-20 minutes. Yeah, that's only about 200 miles of freeway range, but I expect this to continue to improve over time.

I think as EV adoption grows so will the use cases of charging such that we won't be able to force anyone into a box.

In my case, pre-pandemic I was doing the GF and then later the in-law run down and back up the 5 between the Bay Area and LA every month or two (its more like once every 3-4 months right now).

In the early days I was all about charging efficiency. Hyper monitoring of burn rate, don't charge a minute longer than necessary, deep strategizing on stall choice, etc. It was all about getting there as fast as possible. These days, its rare that I charge less for 30-40 min. Its simply easier for us to wrangle a two year old and an infant over fewer, longer stops. I could absolutely care less about charging efficiency, total travel time, etc. At-site-capacity charging events notwithstanding, I set my charge to 100% then we go about feeding, changing, bio-ing, eating, etc, and we get back to the car whenever we get back to the car. Sometimes that's at 75% SOC, sometimes its 98% SOC.

While I'm just one person, one could imagine a litany of preferences for motorists that don't rack up into some statistically relevant plurality. While we're pretty much already there for CA, we will have reached a major milestone when the national infrastructure can support those preferences without impact to other motorists.

 

[Jeepxj]

i generally pull in at 0-10% SOC and leave at 50-60%. best charge curve to stop ratio IMO

 

[Dave EV]

In the early days I was all about charging efficiency. Hyper monitoring of burn rate, don't charge a minute longer than necessary, deep strategizing on stall choice, etc. It was all about getting there as fast as possible. These days, its rare that I charge less for 30-40 min. Its simply easier for us to wrangle a two year old and an infant over fewer, longer stops. I could absolutely care less about charging efficiency, total travel time, etc. At-site-capacity charging events notwithstanding, I set my charge to 100% then we go about feeding, changing, bio-ing, eating, etc, and we get back to the car whenever we get back to the car. Sometimes that's at 75% SOC, sometimes its 98% SOC.

Yeah, while I generally do the same thing unless I absolutely need to charge to get where we're going, in generally I just set the charge limit to 100% and nearly always have enough charge by the time I've gotten a bathroom break and food if necessary to get to the next stop. There's been a few times where there isn't either destination charging or a Supercharger close to the destination where we need to charge extra, but that's the exception rather than the rule.

The exception is actually Supercharging - less than 10% of our charging is Supercharging, the rest is at home.

 

[ucmndd]

Before my first Tesla in March 2020 I used to only pump gas at Costco both at home and on road-trips. Being in a Costco line for gas was frequently a 20+ minute wait and it’s not like I could go into the store while I waited. Between home charging and being able to have a snack or bathroom break during supercharging stops, Tesla charging is still a net benefit compared to ICE gasoline fill ups.

Great anecdote. It amazes me how many people will spend 30 minutes pumping gas at Costco to save 15 cents a gallon without so much as a second thought.

 

[bxr140]

It amazes me how many people will spend 30 minutes pumping gas at Costco to save 15 cents a gallon without so much as a second thought.

Flip side, its enlightening to try on someone else's shoes from time to time.

--Some people think its crazy that Teslas spend 30+ minutes charging
--In my area, Costco gas is typically 15% cheaper than non-member based pump. That can represent a significant amount of money to someone who doesn't have the luxury of waxing thoughts on a Tesla web forum.

 

[Zorg]

Flip side, its enlightening to try on someone else's shoes from time to time.

--Some people think its crazy that Teslas spend 30+ minutes charging
--In my area, Costco gas is typically 15% cheaper than non-member based pump. That can represent a significant amount of money to someone who doesn't have the luxury of waxing thoughts on a Tesla web forum.

Costco out here is about 20-25c cheaper than your average Arco/Valero pump (4-5%).

If one is lucky enough to have a home charger, the time saving of not spending 15mns + every Saturday at the Costco pump is significant, even with a few road trips throughout the year. The other point is that spending 30mns at a SC is a lot more enjoyable than lining up at the Costco gas station.

 

[Jeepxj]

to the food for thought post:

the 4680 charge curve should be significantly better. 150kw at 80%/ 15 minutes? that changes the game enough for that 3x increase in cars assuming all the news ones come ship with 4680s. which they won't. so just a pipe dream.

but assuming buffalo keeps pumping out their prefab stations and the rate of deployment continues at similar I worry with austin coming online they will fall behind. need big expansion on the coast for sure. stations with 12 stalls now need 36 to handle what amounts to 2 -3 days a year of heavy traffic. not exactly ideal from an ROI perspective.

i'm personally holding out to upgrade my 3 until I can get a vehicle with the 4680s. mainly for the charge curve difference.

 

[newjacka]

Why does the 4680 start at 275kw?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Why does the 4680 start at 275kw?

That’s assuming a 450V peak pack.