Only the 1st production (LR+PUP) shows Apr-Jun, for SR and AWD both show late 2018.
I still find it unlikely to stay under 200K in Q2 even if only 25K M3 are delivered in the US in Q1/Q2. I could be remembering wrong but my understanding is that Tesla is already close to 160K-170K US deliveries by the end of 2017. They're probably going to also deliver ~20K MS+MX in Q1/Q2 in the US, which would put them close to 180-190K without the M3 by the end of Q2.
I also pause at the idea that they could delivery 25-30K to Canada by the end of Q2. There has been no showroom activity, no trial-run and training on how to deliver/service the M3 in Canada that we know of. How likely that Tesla could just open the flood gate and jam 25K M3s into Canada in the next 4 months?
I spent a lot of time thinking about this last night, lols, and what you just shared about the timing of drivetrains offered to you makes me more encouraged that this is what Tesla is going for : ).
I say this because the Canadian updates I've seen reported
do offer SR and LR dual motor "mid 2018", sooner than your US status.
The scenario I think might be going on is Tesla maxing out the existing production config (LR rear motor) for US deliveries in the immediate term... hence reaching further into US reservationists currently who want this one and only drivetrain offering, and consistent with your being offered that config ahead of Canadians. Then, in 2-3 months when dual motor (LR and SR) are ready, maxing those, along with LR rear motor, to Canada... consistent with the Canadians getting access to the dual motor (LR and SR)
before you do, and consistent with the need for dual motor (and offering the SR) to come up with something like 25K to 30K Canadians ready to gobble up those 3s coming out of Fremont (i.e., one would think if you want to get a high percentage of Canadian reservation holders to configure, you need to offer dual motor and SR dual motor).
now, going through some remaining points you've brought up,
What I have seen here on TMC and elsewhere is that Tesla delivered between 159K and 160.5K vehicles to the US through the end of 2017 (including Roadsters). Let's call it 161K to be conservative, so Tesla can deliver just up to 39K in the first six months of 2017 so as not to cross 200K yet.
This scenario has about 25K 3s delivered to US customers. That leaves about 14K for S/X. 1) I think Tesla will produce about 48K S/X (they produced about 22-23K last quarter). About 25K of those would normally go to international deliveries. So Tesla would have about 23K vehicles normally for US, and want to deliver only about 14K. I see the 9K almost entirely going to zeroing out all outstanding international orders (roughly 4K per month, so using every last bit of what I believe generally has been a 1-2 month waiting list), and worldwide inventory vehicles (not custom ordered). I see some secondary places the 9K could also go (such as US custom orders built but not delivered, test drive and loaner cars worldwide, etc.).
Finally as to being ready for Canada. In this scenario, Canadian deliveries would be basically May and June Model 3 production. I don't find it unreasonable that between now and May they would have their stores and service centers ready to handle this.
fwiw, I think the biggest risk in this plan is whether they can count on having the dual motor ready in time to leverage the opportunity to send these cars to Canada. If that doesn't happen... you do a halfway move to Canada that does not push out 200K into Q3 and actually means less US reservationists getting their tax credits.
I don't know if Tesla is doing this or not. If we find out that virtually all Canadian orders have been moved up to "mid-2018," that would be very interesting!
