General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

This is an interesting link for those who question Tesla's decision to go with a purely vision-based AI system.

This drone is purely passive vision-based--no radar, sonar, or lidar.
Skydio Demonstrates Incredible Obstacle-Dodging Full Autonomy With New R1 Consumer Drone

 

[Skryll]

[...]
There is a good chance of a lull in demand as Tesla works to provide the $27,500 transaction price it is frittering away as we speak.

I don't see how they are going to coast through the lull. The product mix is too narrow and product ramps are too slow.

I have been driving the Model 3 for 5 weeks now. There is no way that there is going to be a lull in demand for the foreseeable future, even if they only built the $60k version, because it is still half the cost of the Model S at comparable range and performance if you don't need the additional bells and whistles of the Model S.

That said I would want them to provide the 35k version at the very least to their employees sooner rather than later, they really deserve the reward for making this awesome vehicle possible.

 

[HG Wells]

Gee I have mixed feelings about the model three at 35,000.

If they hold off on making the short range version I'll make a lot of money on the stock, but I can't bring myself to spend what they want for the long-range version.

 

[22522]

I have been driving the Model 3 for 5 weeks now. There is no way that there is going to be a lull in demand for the foreseeable future, even if they only built the $60k version, because it is still half the cost of the Model S at comparable range and performance if you don't need the additional bells and whistles of the Model S.

That said I would want them to provide the 35k version at the very least to their employees sooner rather than later, they really deserve the reward for making this awesome vehicle possible.

I have no doubt the car is worth it. I saw one. It is a phenomenal collection of really good design decisions.

But if you add up ALL the comparable sedans that sold for over $50K, I think you have trouble creating a reasonable model 3 run rate of a million a year.

3-Series 400K worldwide
C-Class 500K worldwide
A4 340K worldwide

Maybe if you are really good worldwide and you own the executive car market. The people I know are not well heeled enough to buy the car at $35K.

I expect that I am oblivious to how much money other people have...

 

[22522]

Gee I have mixed feelings about the model three at 35,000.

If they hold off on making the short range version I'll make a lot of money on the stock, but I can't bring myself to spend what they want for the long-range version.

I am not sure you make more money on the stock if Tesla holds off on the short range model.

The more you bow to the finance people the more you become comparable to the other manufacturers. Better to stay a cult stock and broaden the following than wrestle 3 pigs.

 

[schonelucht]

VIN 7755 is showing up in
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...wTF/pubchart?oid=496824047&format=interactive

...

7755 is the highest VIN I am aware of now. Given that most of peeps provide just 1st 2 digits of VIN, looks like there are a lot more VINS than what is reported on either of these.

Just so you know, the spreadsheet converts VINs given as 77xx to 7755 for purposes of modelling VIN growth and forecasting run rates.

 

[sundaymorning]

I have no doubt the car is worth it. I saw one. It is a phenomenal collection of really good design decisions.

But if you add up ALL the comparable sedans that sold for over $50K, I think you have trouble creating a reasonable model 3 run rate of a million a year.

3-Series 400K worldwide
C-Class 500K worldwide
A4 340K worldwide

Maybe if you are really good worldwide and you own the executive car market. The people I know are not well heeled enough to buy the car at $35K.

I expect that I am oblivious to how much money other people have...

Don’t forget that many Model S buyers revealed that it was their most expensive vehicle ever purchased. These buyers come from other vehicle segments: for starters you left out Lexus, surveys conducted indicated MS buyers came from Toyota, Nissan, Honda, etc. Please take some time reading other threads on this forum, it’ll answer some very basic questions backed up by real world data. And yes, people have more money than you think, especially here on this forum

 

[RobStark]

3-Series 400K worldwide
C-Class 500K worldwide
A4 340K worldwide

Those are the top sellers....Lexus IS,Infiniti G35,Cadillac ATS,Alfa Romeo Giulia,Genesis G80 Lincoln MKZ...

I have zero doubt they steal sales from similarly priced neighbors like Lexus ES, Buick LaCrosse, Toyota Avalon,Nissan Maxima,Kia Cadenza,Hyundai Azera etc

Then fully loaded similarly priced family sedans Camry V6 XSE,Honda Accord 2.0T EX-L, Ford Fusion Titanium/Mondeo Vignale, VW Passat GLE etc

 

[22522]

Don’t forget that many Model S buyers revealed that it was their most expensive vehicle ever purchased. These buyers come from other vehicle segments: for starters you left out Lexus, surveys conducted indicated MS buyers came from Toyota, Nissan, Honda, etc. Please take some time reading other threads on this forum, it’ll answer some very basic questions backed up by real world data. And yes, people have more money than you think, especially here on this forum

I think you are saying that conquest sales will support the $50,000 price at an annual volume of 900,000 indefinitely.

People have more money than I have a concept of.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you are saying that conquest sales will support the $50,000 price at an annual volume of 900,000 indefinitely.

People have more money than I have a concept of.

I think he’s saying Tesla will have no problem selling optioned out Model 3s because people can come up with more money than first imagined when there’s a product they want.

 

[JRP3]

Remember that a number of model s owners were previous prius owners. Tesla causes people to stretch.

 

[Off Shore]

Remember that a number of model s owners were previous prius owners. Tesla causes people to stretch.

One of them here. Our Model S cost four times our next most expensive car.

 

[Dwdnjck]

One of the reasons that Eberhard and Tarpening started Tesla was that their market research told them Prius owners had an average income of $250 K, 10 plus years ago.

 

[RobStark]

Ontario Provincial Police

Yeah, I'm down with OPP. You know me....

 

[RobStark]

One of the reasons that Eberhard and Tarpening started Tesla was that their market research told them Prius owners had an average income of $250 K, 10 plus years ago.

A lot of people in Silicon Valley had a Prius as their commuter car..... and a Porsche 911 Turbo as their weekend guilty pleasure car. Both replaced by P85-P100D.

 

[SteveG3]

Jeremy Clarkson, Model X review... delightful, about as positive as any review I've ever seen, and quite amusing, including a two-minute bit at the end poking fun of his history with Tesla (a fake review of the Roadster for which Tesla sued him),

 

[McMountain]

For what it is worth: I moved from a Mercedes C class to a Tesla Model S. Or from 42,000 € to 110,000 €.
Would have bought a fully optioned Model 3, though, had it been available in 2016.

 

[Manton]

Jeremy Clarkson, Model X review... delightful, about as positive as any review I've ever seen, and quite amusing, including a two-minute bit at the end poking fun of his history with Tesla (a fake review of the Roadster for which Tesla sued him),

I would think that the rear doors would have no issue opening in the final scene... here comes another lawsuit!

 

[NicoV]

One of them here. Our Model S cost four times our next most expensive car.

Same for me.

 

[schorsch]

Problems in China

Tesla’s China Dream Threatened by Standoff Over Shanghai Factory