Relying on customers to stretch is not a reliable long term business model. In absolute terms I'm sure more people can stretch to 50k than to 70k (never mind 100k), and more than can stretch to 35k than either of those, but as a percentage of the reservations of the Model 3 and potential reservations of Model Y, I suspect that both those potential buyer pools are going to be much more price sensitive. For Model Y nobody will expect a tax credit, but it still matters because while the market is bigger for a CUV than a sedan, the effective price (including lack of incentives) dampers that a bit. For the 3, there is a window of opportunity that is slipping away for a large portion of the ptotential buyers who could only stretch to 35-50k with the incentives, and without incentives will have to give up options or give up the car altogether. Arguably they couldn't afford the car anyways if that is the case, but the same can be said about many who stretched for S/X.
Those who can't afford the options they want may be dissuaded from buying at all and hope prices come down in the future or buy an off lease vehicle in the future, because perhaps a good portion of the value of the vehicle is the options (i.e. EAP). While this doesn't affect absolute sales rate for Tesla in the near future, possibly for 2018, as they will have more buyers lined up behind them, it may make it hard to maintain sales velocity into next year and the year after that as a chunk of the buyer pool will have been squeezed out or discouraged.
Your basic premise has an error. First, stats from model 3 info.com shows the average reservation holders expects to pay $50,000 for the car. I would not have expected that but this is also supported by
@Troy who had gathered data from reservation holders and less then 1/4 want the base model with no upgrades. My guess is that only 1 in 10 cars sold will have no options. This tells me that people know what they want and they know it's going to cost them.
Here is the basics of my theory. The car is sexy enough to encourage People to do some the basic math. For example when you buy a $23,000 car it has an starting value lower then a $35,000 car. This value is mostly retained during the time period the car is owned. After 5 years, both cars are worth half what they used to be. Or $11,500 vs $17,500. The original $12,000 difference has shrink to just $6000. This assumed both cars hold their value at the same level. I contend the Tesla will be worth much more due to three factors; OTA updates, the available of upgrades like EAP/FSD via software and the simplistic EV drivetrain that is more digital then mechanical. My estimation is that if Tesla can pull off FSD, every single S3XY ever built will eventually have these features enabled. Think about that for a second. If there are a million AP2+ cars on the road and 75% have EAP and 30% have EAP+FSD the day fsd goes live or as I like to think of it, becomes self aware. That means 250,000 cars will have the ability to update to fsd for $9000 and another 700,000 can spend just $4000 to enable the feature. This will instantly make those cars more valuable then they were the previous day. That is over $5B in potential extremely high margin revenue that will eventually be captured. Either the current owner or next owner will activate the features.
But let's assume the residual value is fairly comparative between the icev and the EV. That $6000 difference is only $1200 per year. That's $100 a month for someone to justify. Now if you drive 15,000+ miles per year, that decision is easy. The cost per mile difference is enough to justify that difference. Including maintenance the cost per mile is North of 12c per mile vs 2-5c per mile depending on what you pay for electricity. The more you drive, the better the deal is for the EV and the cheaper the electricity, say adding solar, the better it is for the EV. Let's not forget the federal gas tax that's coming and the eventual increase in local gas taxes for infrastructure investment.
I selected $23,000 for a reason. It's the base price for a Toyota Camry. This basic math can be applied to any vehicle and any version of the model 3. If you own a Maxima or a Toyota Avalon, you can afford more model 3. If you own an Audi or BMW then you can afford even more. The market for the model 3 is tremendous and only limited because it's not a hatchback or an SUV. Not because it's too expensive. That is a false narrative.
Here is why Tesla will succeed based on the analysis here. The math is easy but people are lazy and dumb. It's hard to get people to think. One way is to dangle a sexy as hell car in front of them or a beautiful women. Each of those will compel people to do the math. Whether it's the sex appeal of the car or the green aspects of EVs, the math is easy enough if people are motivated enough to do it. No one is doing math for a bolt.
