I'm getting a bit concerned about the big lul in configuration invites. It's been 3 weeks since the last big batch.
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ValueAnalyst
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Thumper
Active Member
On the issue of how many people can afford a $50K+ car, as you drive the interstates, ask yourself how many of the vehicles you see cost $50Kish. Remember to count almost every private truck towing anything. This includes bass boats, ski boats, travel trailers, snowmobiles or horse trailers. Once you add that load behind you, the $s add up quickly. Now add in all the obvious luxury cars and trucks of every manufacturer. The point is, there are plenty of people who CAN afford $50K the question is how will they choose to spend their money not do they have access to the money.
bdy0627
Active Member
Thanks for pointing this out. I hadn't even thought about this, and it's an interesting thought. Was the 8K just a CYA legal clarification? If so, then in fact the Grohmann equipment IS required to get to 2,000/week production. If it's not, and the 8K document is completely legitimate about Elon being wrong with his statement during the CC, that's a little concerning too. Elon's statement was very clear during the CC. If he was talking about getting to 4,000/week with the Grohmann equipment, certainly he would have said that, right? Could Elon completely misunderstand what was required for Tesla to reach 2,000/week production, thinking it required the Grohmann equipment when in fact it doesn't? We all know he has been busy with SpaceX, so perhaps that has kept him from keeping up with the production requirements at Tesla, but knowing Elon, that seems pretty unlikely.
I did not know that Bloomberg is calculating numbers for M3 as well. Interesting results:
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making
... Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 7,281 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 1,025 a week.
Great find from PeterK!
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making
... Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 7,281 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 1,025 a week.
Great find from PeterK!
Menifeer
Member
My situation, too (except I've also sold short-term Calls against the DITMs).Past week, but after 7th, I sold all my shares .. now all in combo of Deep ITM Calls, and Deep OTM Puts ... but I can sure vote
DurandalAI
Member
I might have mis-heard or not remembered correctly, but I seem to remember Elon mentioning Tesla to continue to have 50% YoY growth. Now, I’m guessing that is revenue instead of unit sales, so take that into account that Model 3 sales prices would be half of Model S as a nice easy to use average.... but, Model 3 will be front loaded with higher ASP vehicles earlier in the year. So right now I anticipate ASP for the Model 3 to be $54k, but that should drop to around $45k or so once the SR version comes out.
Anyhow, given that initial statement of 50% YOY growth, I anticipate between 100,000 to 133,000 Model 3 unit sales in the year of 2018. Back of napkin math. I know that is less than we want and probably have expected, but even that growth rate is pretty impressive for just about any company.
Anyhow, given that initial statement of 50% YOY growth, I anticipate between 100,000 to 133,000 Model 3 unit sales in the year of 2018. Back of napkin math. I know that is less than we want and probably have expected, but even that growth rate is pretty impressive for just about any company.
Agree driving the three now for 4 days absolutely exceeds every expectation.
MarketWatch - 17 minutes ago: FCC chairman urges commission to approve Elon Musk's SpaceX application for broadband satellite
How might this affect Tesla?
How might this affect Tesla?
Pulling to general forum
Read it. What new metrics? Their own "report a VIN button" for one data point?
Are saying that Bloomberg has been scraping the NHTSA database this entire time (since registrations are not time coded) and also made a bot to look for user posted VINs over time, which produced the exact same data set (with the addition of one yellow Bloomberg dot)?
Read it. What new metrics? Their own "report a VIN button" for one data point?
Are saying that Bloomberg has been scraping the NHTSA database this entire time (since registrations are not time coded) and also made a bot to look for user posted VINs over time, which produced the exact same data set (with the addition of one yellow Bloomberg dot)?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Both very well could be true. Since the future hasnt happened yet, it may still require the machine from Germany to hit 2500 a week. For example, a machine that is already working at GF1 in the semi-automatic setup could break down in a way that takes months to fix and thus Tesla would NEED the Ghromann machine to hit the targets.
They could have also been being coy in the CC because other factors could impact the 2500 target that have nothing to do with the constraints at the GF and they didnt want to give specifics or they where CYA as it relates to hitting 2500.
Reciprocity
Active Member
LOL.. #montanabottom is a new thing on $tsla twitter. People are citing the Montana bottom as being 310 when MS told everyone to short TSLA. You gotta love twitter.
The child tax credit is the last credit applied to eliminate taxable income. That's because it is refundable subject to MAGI limits. In 2017 it begins phasing out at $110k for MFJ families. 7 Requirements for the Child Tax Credit - TurboTax Tax Tips & Videos
In 2018, the credit increases to $2k/eligible child and MAGI phaseout for the $1.4k refundable component is $400k for MFJ families. What The Expanded Child Tax Credit Looks Like After Tax Reform
So the EV credit might be used in full, but it could replace some of the Child Tax Credit that would otherwise be claimed by the taxpayer.
Do some DD on Intuit as an investment in a company that is likely to capitalize on the tax law changes--simplify the code? not so much
bdy0627
Active Member
My personal take on it is that they are not confident about hitting 2,000/week without the Grohmann line but that there is a chance they could get there with the existing semi-manual module production. Essentially, they aren't ruling it out at this point. Therefore, their guidance about continuing to target 2,500 by the end of Q1 is still accurate, even though it has a low-probability. Once the Grohmann line is operational at the GF, then 2,500 is essentially assured within a fairly short period of time.
Gerardf
Active Member
Audi already in trouble selling manipulated diesels, now during the raid on their offices something else turned up.
Mystery of Audi’s duplicate VINs deepens
Shipped thousants of cars with the same vin to Asia.
BIG problem !
Very strange, but why ? To evade import taxes ? Honest mistake ??
Anybody here know more ?
Edit:
Was a second raid after last year initial find.
Audi uncorks a VIN mystery
Mystery of Audi’s duplicate VINs deepens
Shipped thousants of cars with the same vin to Asia.
BIG problem !
Very strange, but why ? To evade import taxes ? Honest mistake ??
Anybody here know more ?
Edit:
Was a second raid after last year initial find.
Audi uncorks a VIN mystery
Last edited:
Reciprocity
Active Member
Thanks for that detail. I was unaware of that detail. This actually makes the EV Tax Credit even less appealing for people making under 60k filing as an individual with or without kids and families with kids filing jointly now need income north of 120k to fully leverage all the potential tax credits. I mean lets face it, if one credit wipes out the other it doesn't matter which gets wiped out you are not optimizing your savings. My original point was that people who can ONLY afford a $35k car and those who ONLY want to pay $35k for a car, may or may not even be able to utilize the full credit. Tesla may just be protecting people from themselves by delaying the $35k car. Also, they might be doing more then that by bringing out a lease at the same time, which is a way for even poor folks to take advantage of the full credit..but only if Tesla has some tax liability to offset? Does anyone know how this works for Tesla. No one seems to know. I sure dont.
Along with that question.. what stops Tesla from coming out with a 6-10 year lease? Or a 6-10 year lease that includes solar + powerwall? Am I crazy to think they could get really creative with the financing and make it so payments are the same as a new corolla, but you get a new corolla every 5 years and you are stuck with the model 3 for all 10?
Don't know, but can speculate. The EV credit can only be claimed by the taxpayer (individual or corporate) that first titled the vehicle and only in that tax year--it does not carry forward. Tesla's accumulated deficit at 9/30/17 was $4.3 billion. Tesla has also stated that its deferred tax asset is already subject to a full valuation allowance, aka written off without the expectation that it will be beneficial. The corporate time limit for NOLs to carry forward is 20 years. Tesla was incorporated in 2003, so the early losses have about five years before they lapse.
The direct lease vehicles are first titled by Tesla Lease Financing LLC which is consolidated in Tesla's corporate return. As you have noted, there are multiple anecdotal accounts that TLF adds back the $7,500 EV credit to the vehicles' residual values to make the monthly lease payments competitive with 3rd party leases whose corporate lessors do have tax liabilities.
Even though Moody's discounted significantly the expected residual values of the vehicles indirectly transferred to the ABS trustee, the add-back was not discussed in the Pre-Sale. It's conceivable that some of the lower tranches in the waterfall may not receive the full expected return because of this practice
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