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dc_h
Active Member
Nobody told me there would be math.
Ulmo
Active Member
The factory was ~97% unstaffed Sunday December 31 afternoon; I don't know if they were even open Sunday morning. Either the "1,000 per week run rate in last few days" was during days they were open, or the factory for Model 3 runs with only 3% staffing.
I remain a major TSLA bull and Tesla booster.
But I’m disappointed in the way Elon has handled the M3 production projections.
From the beginning his story has been that it would be hard to predict when the ramp would get into gear, but that once it did, it would accelerate swiftly. Today he reverses course and says he wants a slow ramp for quality and efficiency.
Elon needs to issue a full explanation for what went wrong, and what has changed. His credibility has taken a major hit, and full transparency is the only way to repair this.
But I’m disappointed in the way Elon has handled the M3 production projections.
From the beginning his story has been that it would be hard to predict when the ramp would get into gear, but that once it did, it would accelerate swiftly. Today he reverses course and says he wants a slow ramp for quality and efficiency.
Elon needs to issue a full explanation for what went wrong, and what has changed. His credibility has taken a major hit, and full transparency is the only way to repair this.
Well, I'm back.
I'm normally very optimistic about Tesla and have been for years, but really was not looking forward to today's report, given analyst expectations and everything else surrounding this ramp up.
I have to say...
I AM RELIEVED.
I was absolutely dreading this day and am SO GLAD it is past us. I doubt the stock will be as "relieved" as me, as there is a better chance than not of it taking a step down on this release and the lowering of guidance.
But, for me, I am relieved. Guidance has been lowered. The numbers are out. After this upcoming barrage of downgrades, I can look forward to...
1. Reservation Deposits - MASSIVE increase from Q3 to Q4, could be upwards of $2 Billion
2. Updated Production Number - Early Feb Q4 CC
I promise, to whichever deity out there is listening...Allah, God, Yaweh, Jesus, Spaghetti Monster, Zeus...I shall not buy options ever again. Clearly, even 2020 options are too risky and piss me off too much.
Lets get tomorrow down-day done and over with!
I'm normally very optimistic about Tesla and have been for years, but really was not looking forward to today's report, given analyst expectations and everything else surrounding this ramp up.
I have to say...
I AM RELIEVED.
I was absolutely dreading this day and am SO GLAD it is past us. I doubt the stock will be as "relieved" as me, as there is a better chance than not of it taking a step down on this release and the lowering of guidance.
But, for me, I am relieved. Guidance has been lowered. The numbers are out. After this upcoming barrage of downgrades, I can look forward to...
1. Reservation Deposits - MASSIVE increase from Q3 to Q4, could be upwards of $2 Billion
2. Updated Production Number - Early Feb Q4 CC
I promise, to whichever deity out there is listening...Allah, God, Yaweh, Jesus, Spaghetti Monster, Zeus...I shall not buy options ever again. Clearly, even 2020 options are too risky and piss me off too much.
Lets get tomorrow down-day done and over with!
I see it much differently.
Yes, 2017 expectations were too high. Always were. But, he did say, that was if everything went perfectly. He said that was his optimistic view. I've followed Elon for 7 years, so, you learn the territory. But analysts/newer folks haven't learned that yet. Can't blame him for it, he told you he was optimistic. Can't blame you either, you didn't know the guy enough.
His most official guidance was "in the thousands production rate" by end of 2017. Well, he said it was above 1000 per week production rate at the end of the year. That is technically "in the thousands". He didn't mislead. Perhaps people, again, expected too much.
Now, here is where you can have an issue...but put it into context...
He said 5,000 rate by end of Q1. It will be closer to 2,500 rate by end of Q1. He now says 5,000 rate by end of Q2. He said he would have a better idea at the beginning of Q1. He clearly has a better idea now and updated guidance as we would expect and demand that he do.
He said 10,000 rate by end of 2018. Clearly, that is being pushed out too.
You can't fault all the push backs as being 10 wrong statements...all of these events are connected.
Fault him for a 3 month push back. Or 6 months. But that is where it ends.
They updated us and informed us of the changes as they said they would. They never claimed to be 100% accurate.
I really think people are underestimating the fact that Tesla actually is making "in the thousands" of Model 3 per week.
Perhaps I misunderstood or misread or misheard, but that was always my understand of the revised guidance.
And..
If the baseline of all of 2018 is another 100k+ S/X sales...I'll be happy. The most profitable segment of the business is crucial and appears to be extremely healthy. Add 100k+ 3's into that...you are looking at another year of 50% growth, not including Solarcity/TE.
Buddyroe
Active Member
I don't care about the competitors. I care about Musk constantly having no idea how long it takes to do anything. Why even make those ridiculous timeline projects in the first place? Why not just say, we're going to release the first cars in July ('17) and we'll know more then about how we think we'll be able to ramp up production.
I'm just SO d@mn sick of him over-promising and under delivering. For once, can we even be close? The Model S, understandable. The X, ridiculous at 2.5 years late. Now the M3, probably not going to make more than 50k this year (at least I have no confidence that it will be more).
They are making cars at a rate of 1000 per week as of today, so 50,000 total Model 3s would imply and slowing down of production rate from where it is now, and maintain that slowdown for 362 more days. That is unlikely. I'm quite pessimistic lately and I'm not even seeing number that low. Perhaps they only do 100,000 or maybe 125,000...but it is absolutely certain to be higher than 50,000.
I just think Elon is overly optimistic. Like...EXTREMELY optimistic. Put everything into context. He says Mars by 2025...its his nature.
This is what we get. This is what we bought in to.
Unfortunately, there are very few investment opportunities out there like this. This is the game you sign up for with Elon.
2virgule5
Member
We will see occasionally everyone to be right at some point, shorts and longs alike. That imho the value of this forum.
You'd be hard pressed to find a lot of people still talking of 250k M3 deliveries in the past 3 pages though, why so extreme? The point is for investor to make money right? I've picked the long side for the most part (and learned to downplay expectations a bit), and I'm +60% since I joined the game 2 years ago. Not changing ship anytime soon. See you in 3 months to claim your prize, but, any guess at what the share price will be?
And if TOYOTA can pull up a model 3 killer anytime between now and 2020, I will gladly deliver a rack of the best Champagne or whatever you like to Denver.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'm of the firm belief that instead of looking at this as being 6 months behind a ridiculously optimistic schedule, Tesla is at least 6 years ahead of its next competitor, and if you're going to talk about making EVs at the same volume and cost competitiveness as Model 3, probably more like 8-10 years ahead.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I believed this was his second time to announce missed delivery production. I would be surprised if there is a third time.
Krugerrand
Meow
What new interior? I’ve been reading about this new interior facelift for months now. First it was wishful thinking, then a rumor and now it’s spoken like it’s a done deal any day now, maybe tomorrow but for sure next month.
Not going to happen. More important things to do.
No, they are NOT. Read between the lines. They pushed for a few days to extrapolate to a rate of 1000 / week just to appease investors. Sounds like they are at maybe 600 / week for now.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
NO they did not push for a few days. Not even to appease investors.
They ran each section of the production line in burst to test if they could produce Model 3s at a rate of 1000 per week. Those test were successful.
I say they don't have all the parts to make 1000 Model 3s per week. You can have 99% of the parts but need all 100% of the parts. Others speculated they don't have enough trained workers. The machines on the line have been programmed and calibrated to go 1000 per week.
The Model 3 line isn't the Model S/X line were they can significantly increase production by adding more labor. They need to get the machines working correctly to increase production.
They said in the last quarterly shareholder letter they’d give an update on 2018 guidance together with the release of 2017 production. Then reneging on that promise would open a lot of speculation. They basically had to because they promised.
That was based on the report of one CEO in Taiwan. So many plausibilities. Maybe that part is an outlier in terms of stocking it (since it's sourced from Taiwan), maybe the CEO was wrong, maybe we lost something in translation, maybe he was speaking of individual parts after all where we interpreted it to be about full kits (one model 3 kit needs multiple individual parts)....
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