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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Don’t trust either completely, but I doubt either is off by much. Split the difference & assume 2750 for February.

Both say #1 selling EV in US, with production increasing, but not as fast as it should.

Just to note, I try to be exceedingly clear these are estimates (aka guesses). This month was especially hard. Eager to see next month's totals from Tesla. Have only modified previous estimates maybe once or twice after getting those, but curious if I will feel a need to this time.

Aside from the comment thread on that article, btw, I found it interesting to scroll through estimates from some readers in this one: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In February — What Do You Think? | CleanTechnica

Always looking for more viewpoints from people paying attention and not insanely biased, I'd be curious if people here have any estimates on these three models that depart much from ours or the ones from InsideEVs. (Of course, InsideEVs is going to stuff a ton into March. I've explained in the past several times why I don't do that.)

Final note: Used to follow this thread closely and contribute here. I should probably get back into it. :)
 
Some news from Geneva and the German Automakers going electric:

VW: The ID Vision concept seems to be more a vision than a solid approach into EVs for me. With full self driving, 665 km range and a 111 KW Battery to be in the market 2022 Its another prove how far they are behind. If it takes them 111 KW for a car to drive more than 600 km in 2022 than it shows that they have not really understood where Tesla will likely be in 4 years.

Volkswagen details futuristic I.D. Vizzion Concept autonomous sedan in Geneva

BMW: Released that they will produce the i4 in 2020 or '21. Its full electric with more than 500km range. No further details given but declared as competition to the M3. Again, I ask myself if they really anticipate that Tesla is just standing still with no improvements in the next 3 to 5 years or have no believe that they will be able to compete and develop a car that will be.

Ab 2020 läuft BMW i4 in München vom Band - stromschnell.de

It seems like the Jag is better and sooner positioned although with 13k units p.a. its almost a better compliance car and BTW very expensive with 74k€ for the base Model. Demand should be higher because its a good looking car with decent specs but maybe they are not able to make money with it and decided to limit production from the get go.

Porsche will make a good car with good specs but it will be in the high price market and not a mass vehicle as well. They may attract buyers who today buy a P100D or the new Roadster but thats the luxury class.

So, I am still waiting for a real challenger .....
 
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Interesting Model 3 product info: the stock powertrain works quite well at the track: Model 3 Track Day: Laguna Seca

Model 3 was able to complete 9 consecutive laps at full power. The Model S, in comparison, automatically goes into a reduced power mode under sustained throttle use that one would typically see in track use.

Model 3’s overall performance and handling appears to be superb, based on the driver’s feedback and the video posted. The only problem encountered was that the OEM brake pads were expended by lap 4, but this is to be expected. Brake pads for everyday street use are far less durable than brake pads for racing.

I don’t know why the Model 3 is able to do this when the Model S cannot. Perhaps the 3’s coolant system is better, or maybe the PM motor does not generate as much heat.

At any rate, Tesla has proved that their product can match or beat ICE capability in yet another application.

This is fantastic. Only a trivial percentage of people track their cars but it is a point constantly raised by ICE fans to denigrate performance of Teslas.

If the base LR can perform like this, the Model 3 P should be a beast on the track. Another reason for Tesla to keep BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Porsche execs up at night.:)
 
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They're not alone...

VW Boss Predicts ‘Renaissance’ for Embattled Diesel Cars VW Boss Predicts ‘Renaissance’ for Embattled Diesel Cars

If they keep dicking around with small volume EVs and let tesla get out to a lead of a few gigafactories it will be near impossible to catch up to Tesla's lead.

Utter stupidity.

Didn't Germany just allow cities to ban diesel? And German manufacturers are doubling down on diesel? I don't get it. Sounds like a clusterfck.
 
Didn't Germany just allow cities to ban diesel? And German manufacturers are doubling down on diesel? I don't get it. Sounds like a clusterfck.

There are different types of Diesel engines that are grouped into emission classes. Euro 4, 5 and 6 are the most common ones. The bans will most likely only affect older (Euro 4 and lower) Diesel engines at first, but can be extended for newer Euro 5 and 6 engines as well if needed.

European emission standards - Wikipedia has some details on the classifications.
 
Didn't Germany just allow cities to ban diesel? And German manufacturers are doubling down on diesel? I don't get it. Sounds like a clusterfck.

The new Diesel is far cleaner in terms of emissions and will be allowed in Germany even if a City is banning old Diesel cars. So this are 2 different things and should not be mixed up.

They had that technology before but did not implement it and decided to cheat, presumingly for costs reasons. Now they use it and are compliant with all regulations. This is how they try to convince consumers: "buy a new Diesel in exchange for your old dirty one and get a big discount..."

It makes sense for them to try to position the clean Diesel again as its their only option to make money in the next years. All plans to push out EVs are years in the future and they need to finance their operations and new developments in the meantime.
 
Do we have any evidence of this? When did German manufacturers stop cheating emissions?

Yes we do. Environmental NGOs did test them inside out and Diesel cars produced in Germany are compliant with German regulations.

However the matter is complex.

First of all consider a Diesel in the US and one in Germany as two complete different cars. This has to do with different regulations so you cannot compare them and regulations are different as well.

Secondly @mutle is right that it cannot be excluded that some Diesel of the highest (best) emission class 6 will be banned from Cities in the future.

I would not be surprised if VW is still cheating in some countries. So, not sure if I can say they fully stopped.
 
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