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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Ha, added "More Echo Chamber" stuff as self-depricating humor and I get to hear an earful.

My Tesla multiples are in the 1000%(percent) .. I too am super long Tesla
People provide links to what they think others might also find interesting. Some have given in likes - so I think that proves the point
Thinking that twitter and fb etc etc is all stupid is the most ignorant thing I have heard on TMC

One thing you are right on is my convictions. Lately I have had to question them. With S/X ramps, I had calculated that M3 ramp would be in S curve mode by now and that hasn't happened - so I have been getting out of the too OTM Calls for Jan 19 and moving more to Jan 20 LEAPS, along with a healthy doze of short term puts and Covered Calls ...

I don't know why people buy otm anything except short term lotto plays. I found the premium you pay for itm options tends to allow you to sleep at night. Not an advice. I would do the math and make sure you are getting a good value for your money, sometimes you do and sometimes you get almost nothing for being otm.
 
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Great: I was checking a 13000 VIN all day yesterday and was getting back errors
Next one I will try is 14000 :) ( error so far)

Weak sauce.. was hoping for 3k+. Though it really depends on when and how many they register on the near future. Still pretty cloudy in my mind as to whether or not they are ramping. Let's see if another big round of invites goes out.
 
I don't know why people but otm anything except short term lotto plays. I found the premium you pay for itm options tends to allow you to sleep at night. Not an advice. I would do the math and make sure you are getting a good value for your money, sometimes you do and sometimes you get almost nothing for being otm.

For me I got caught up when SP went to 380 range among other things. Selling Puts etc, I thought i had a good enough strategy. Also thought M3 ramp would not be like MX and had calculated it to be in great progress by now.
 
Weak sauce.. was hoping for 3k+. Though it really depends on when and how many they register on the near future. Still pretty cloudy in my mind as to whether or not they are ramping. Let's see if another big round of invites goes out.

1400 registrations now and 1000 a week ago is a huge improvement over the previous month of nothing, and evidence suggests production is back to at least 1k/wk. This leaves a current 4000 VIN buffer above what has currently been assigned (99xx). I feel pretty confident they're going to make a big push over the final three weeks to reach a run rate of at least 2k/wk exiting the quarter.
 
I don't know why people but otm anything except short term lotto plays. I found the premium you pay for itm options tends to allow you to sleep at night. Not an advice. I would do the math and make sure you are getting a good value for your money, sometimes you do and sometimes you get almost nothing for being otm.

Btw Itm are also not as safe as they seem ..
When doing options as compared to stock one tends to over leverage

On first run up to 284 and on the way down I cashed out of shares around 250.. I then bought itm options around 200 for yearlies - then stock dropped to 180 - was lucky that I didn’t over leverage and was thus able to buy back my shares below 200
 
1400 registrations now and 1000 a week ago is a huge improvement over the previous month of nothing, and evidence suggests production is back to at least 1k/wk. This leaves a current 4000 VIN buffer above what has currently been assigned (99xx). I feel pretty confident they're going to make a big push over the final three weeks to reach a run rate of at least 2k/wk exiting the quarter.

Oh something is definitely better than nothing. It's just easier to be optimistic if there is a spike in this and itself data points. I like easy.
 
Btw Itm are also not as safe as they seem ..
When doing options as compared to stock one tends to over leverage

On first run up to 284 and on the way down I cashed out of shares around 250.. I then bought itm options around 200 for yearlies - then stock dropped to 180 - was lucky that I didn’t over leverage and was thus able to buy back my shares below 200

Mostly talking about deep itm vs deep otm. But I certainly get your point. You pay a premium for itm calls so your risk more money but less overall risk of the calls becoming worthless and less upside. There are trade offs. Much of trading is psychological so it's more about your threshold for pain. For me, I feel better today owning 320 calls then I would the 400 calls I first bought when learning. Luckily, I learned quickly and cashed those out for a small gain and rolled it into more itm calls. For me the itm calls higher price forces me to play smaller total positions which is less risky over all. I think the more experienced your are, the better otm calls can be because the rewards can defiantly be bigger. I'm still just a few months into this and boy did I pick a great time to learn. Watching the Dow go down 1700pts every day for a week is fun. I exaggerate.
 
Canada: "How can we make our people buy the inferior product?"


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Tesla registered 1,387 new Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 13823.

Battery worker at Reno posted on Reddit and was pretty much pushed to give more details but did it absolutely right and did not disclose confidential information. Sounds trustworthy and gives a very positive and good insight....

"Trust me the factory is getting better each day in Reno and it is really picking up. Just got done working 6 12 hr days"
(...)
"Exactly but we build the important stuff that goes into the car... I'm having such a great time working their I'm really pumped to be a part of this company."
(...)

It is telling to me if someone after 6 12 hours working talks about being pumped to be a part of that company.

Tesla registered 1,387 new Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 13823. • r/teslamotors
 
Tesla registered 1,387 new Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 13823.

Battery worker at Reno posted on Reddit and was pretty much pushed to give more details but did it absolutely right and did not disclose confidential information. Sounds trustworthy and gives a very positive and good insight....

"Trust me the factory is getting better each day in Reno and it is really picking up. Just got done working 6 12 hr days"
(...)
"Exactly but we build the important stuff that goes into the car... I'm having such a great time working their I'm really pumped to be a part of this company."
(...)

It is telling to me if someone after 6 12 hours working talks about being pumped to be a part of that company.

Tesla registered 1,387 new Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 13823. • r/teslamotors

Any verification to that.
 
Any verification to that.

No but feel free to read his messages and build yourself a picture.

IMHO there is no way in the time of social media to get a verification or prove of what somebody is saying. Everything can be fake unless you have other independent sources.

If he is fake he would given us deep insights for the fun of it but he declined to give them because they would fire him right away given violation of the NDA.
 
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No but feel free to read his messages and build yourself a picture.

IMHO there is no way in the time of social media to get a verification or prove of what somebody is saying. Everything can be fake unless you have other independent sources.

If he is fake he would given us deep insights for the fun of it but he declined to give them because they would fire him right away given violation of the NDA.
On the other hand, he said to drop by and take a tour. So, I don't know...

I usually just tune out these rumors. It takes 5 seconds to make a reddit profile and half a brain to come up with a narrative like this.
 
Let’s see how this week goes on Model 3 production. Seems like they took assembly down for a bit and it’s coming back on. I wouldn’t be surprised if they wanted to reconfigure things based on the initial production learnings.
 
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