Sorry for the long part, but this blasphemy cannot stand.
The competition miss conception...
Now that the magical year of 2020 is creeping ever closer, we are hearing more and more about credible competition. The ipace and Audi etron are first up. Some think this is a threat to Tesla because they are all EVs and as we all know, only 1% of people on the Earth want an EV so all these companies are going to be fighting for these people. Tesla literally has less then 1% of the global auto market and not even the biggest share if the EV market by units of you include China.
Some crazy high precent of people believe in global warming and everyone likes to breath clean air and drink clean water. People also really like peppy acceleration and cars that are fun to drive and not ugly. I have never met anyone one who likes a sluggish slow car. People who already have fast cars don't like turbo lag.
Just looking at the current crop of EVs, the ipace and etron. My guess is that Tesla will not see a noticeable decrease in demand since they already cannot fulfill the demand they have. Instead, I see these new vehicles impacting sales of BMW and Daimler and even Audi SUVs. They are smaller vehicles so they are not in same segment as the model X. These vehicles will also be loss leaders for the two companies that are learning how to make EVs. Sales of these vehicles will offset not only Daimler and BMWs sales in the same class but also they will cannibalize sales from they own profitable SUVs. Also, production of these vehicles are estimates at just above compliance levels. My guess is that is because they don't want to go out of business selling these things at a loss instead of their own very profitable icev products. Certainly some people in the market for an S or X will be lured away. The limited production is not just a factor of profitablity, but also battery supply. With something like 120 models coming in the magical year of 2020, there is going to be a battery supply issue. Even at compliance levels, 60 models would require 1.2-1.8 million cars worth of gigafactories or about 120-180GWh worth of cells and packs. In less then 2 years. For comparison sake, the gigafactory won't even supply that many batteries by 2020 and they broke ground years ago on that facility. Those 20-30k cars being sold will not offset sales of S3XY vehicles in any meaning full way, but they will offset sales of those car companies profitable brands, at exactly the same time the model Y is hitting the roads and the model 3 is ramping to 1M/Y. Those vehicles will multiply losses by cannibalizing profitable models with r&d heavy, retail batteries (compared to Tesla) and the costs of creating completely new lines since these will be new platforms. I chose to use only 60 instead of 120 because half will be delayed and maybe even indefinitely. As my pops would say, they are in serious deep dodo.
But let's not forget that these vehicles are Targeted at 2014 model year designs, tech and range. I can assure you that if there ever is real competition, Tesla will release software patches to increase performance, update the interior with an augmented reality HUD and convert to 2170 cells and leave the completion lacking.
There are No EVs coming in the near future or exist today that complete with the model 3. Range, features, charging (in part due to how efficient the vehicle is), charging network. Performance and range should only get better with dual motor version. And then there is the P variant on the high end and SR coming on the low end. The base model 3 has a real chance to make an impact on a broad range of vehicles from Camry's to Accords and even Carollas in the most extreme situations where you have solar and drive a lot of miles. On the higher end, the model 3 will compete with M3s and when base 5 series, while model S moves up market.
Model Y has a real chance to gut sales of many popular vehicles even with a potential 2 year wait list. If you look at the improvements from S to X (all but fwd) and then the improvements to efficiency and cost of model 3. Then take into account the semi and roadster with mind bending specs that seem to have people thinking physics has been compromised I'm some way. Does anyone have a guess as to how the model Y will a stack up with those 2020 cars? My guess is that half of those cars don't make it to market at all because no one will want them.
