General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

I wouldn't expect much of a ramp until confirmation that Grohmann lines are in place and working to spec, so 3Q maybe 4Q definitely?

I'm certainly hoping to see a ramp to 2.5x current in the next several weeks as Tesla continues to reiterate!

Mainly because I want my 3!

 

[mongo]

I watched briefly. After he gave ex. of Aircraft being reusable, I signed off.

2 things he mentioned. #1 he is usually overly optimistic with his estimates, and #2 he needs to recalibrate his timelines ..
thought that these 2 points might actually be applicable for M3 as well.

Anyone else chuckle when Elon quoted the cost to rent a 747 to Australia? Guess we know how some of the batteries may have gotten there. 86 Powerpacks (18MWh) max out a 747 freighter, based on $700k rental, that's $8.1k each ($39/kWh)

 

[SteveG3]

Will there be a recording available?

I just missed it.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla Inc. temporarily suspended production of the Model 3 electric sedan at its lone auto plant for a week in late February, a planned breather that ultimately may help increase output of the closely watched vehicle.

Model 3 production was idled from Feb. 20 to Feb. 24 before resuming at the company’s assembly plant in Fremont, California, Tesla confirmed Sunday.

Tesla Temporarily Suspended Model 3 Production in Late February

 

[elasalle]

The Battery Will Kill Fossil Fuels—It's Only a Matter of Time

 

[Brando]

Yes we do. Environmental NGOs did test them inside out and Diesel cars produced in Germany are compliant with German regulations.

However the matter is complex.

First of all consider a Diesel in the US and one in Germany as two complete different cars. This has to do with different regulations so you cannot compare them and regulations are different as well.

Secondly @mutle is right that it cannot be excluded that some Diesel of the highest (best) emission class 6 will be banned from Cities in the future.

I would not be surprised if VW is still cheating in some countries. So, not sure if I can say they fully stopped.

Some people will believe anything, you?

 

[Brando]

There are different types of Diesel engines that are grouped into emission classes. Euro 4, 5 and 6 are the most common ones. The bans will most likely only affect older (Euro 4 and lower) Diesel engines at first, but can be extended for newer Euro 5 and 6 engines as well if needed.

European emission standards - Wikipedia has some details on the classifications.

6 levels of deceit down to only 3 - how could anyone tell? different shades of grey?

 

[ls7corvete]

Tesla Temporarily Suspended Model 3 Production in Late February

Preparing for the new machinery from Grohmann??? Let the speculation begin.

 

[schonelucht]

Preparing for the new machinery from Grohmann??? Let the speculation begin.

We can nip that speculation right in the bud. The downtime was in Fremont, the Grohmann line is destined for the Gigafactory. So that's a hard no. Given that inside EV had this scoop 2 weeks ago I am inclined to believe them. As an automation engineer myself, I find it very plausible that as the assembly line was dealing with higher volume on a more regular basis that they discovered timing issue that needed rectifying in such a way that they had to shut down production for a while. That's good news, btw. It means one more bottleneck was solved. It's by far not going to be the last one though but increasing production like this is very often an iterative process.

 

[Reciprocity]

We can nip that speculation right in the bud. The downtime was in Fremont, the Grohmann line is destined for the Gigafactory. So that's a hard no. Given that inside EV had this scoop 2 weeks ago I am inclined to believe them. As an automation engineer myself, I find it very plausible that as the assembly line was dealing with higher volume on a more regular basis that they discovered timing issue that needed rectifying in such a way that they had to shut down production for a while. That's good news, btw. It means one more bottleneck was solved. It's by far not going to be the last one though but increasing production like this is very often an iterative process.

That would conflict with the statement that it was planned. My guess is that the planned part was dual motor and the unplanned part is what your are calling out. They are using a planned downtime to install the dual motor hardware and addressing "timing" and maybe parts conveyance issues and probably a million other things that needed adjusting in a system this complex. These types of systems are never done, Tesla will make 100s of improvements over the next few years so the downtime is not really surprising.

What's interesting to me is that we all figured this out before Tesla said anything. In fact, one article quoted forums as identifying the slow down. That makes me feel like we will be able to determine if the ramp is truly improved after the downtime. We should see a spike in VIN assignments and deliveries as well as another decent sized batch of vins registered. If we don't, then we got problems. They have roughly 3800 vins that have not been assigned and just over two weeks left in the quarter. In theory, they don't need more vins but they have never waited until they ran out to register new vins. I also have fears that they can't really go directly to 2500/w from 1000/w in the next 2 weeks. Either way, we will know soon.

 

[Mike Smith]

just over two weeks left in the quarter.

There are three full work weeks left in the quarter, plus Saturday the 31st.

 

[Reciprocity]

There are three full work weeks left in the quarter, plus Saturday the 31st.

Well then they should be able to triple production in 3 weeks, no problem. What was I worried about. We are not going to get data on that 3rd week in time to make any decisions, before the actual numbers are published by Tesla.

 

[avoigt]

Attached a very insightful technical explanation why the Model 3 Motor is a complete new design and development outpacing even their older Motor for S and X with a 6% efficiency increase combined with lower costs.

Another key element that makes Tesla the company with superior technology. I remember all other automakers saying ever since that Tesla is using the same Motors which is now proven to be wrong.

Cudos to the Greece Engineering!

Tesla Model 3 Motor — Everything I've Been Able To Learn About It (Welcome To The Machine) | CleanTechnica

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I like that Tesla increased its Supercharger rates, as I discussed in detail here, because this move:

1. Addresses owners' concerns that the wave of Model 3's will worsen congestion at Superchargers;
2. Increases the value of Free Unlimited Supercharging referral program and shifts some demand from Model 3 to Model S; and
3. Provides the company with incremental cash flow to execute on its mission through internal funds in addition to external capital.

As always, I welcome any feedback.

 

[Yggdrasill]

First Tesla (occupant) death in Norway, with an S75D: Google Oversetter

Looks like another incident of mistaking the accelerator for the brake. Tragic.

 

[sub]

Ha, added "More Echo Chamber" stuff as self-depricating humor and I get to hear an earful.

My Tesla multiples are in the 1000%(percent) .. I too am super long Tesla
People provide links to what they think others might also find interesting. Some have given in likes - so I think that proves the point
Thinking that twitter and fb etc etc is all stupid is the most ignorant thing I have heard on TMC

One thing you are right on is my convictions. Lately I have had to question them. With S/X ramps, I had calculated that M3 ramp would be in S curve mode by now and that hasn't happened - so I have been getting out of the too OTM Calls for Jan 19 and moving more to Jan 20 LEAPS, along with a healthy doze of short term puts and Covered Calls ...

~ Cheers!!

Please point to where I said fb was ALL stupid? I said I don't want to listen to stupid, so I don't frequent any social media. I'm not willing to wade through knee deep BS to get the one occasional nugget.

Read clearly before responding to posts and don't twist words/meanings else people might start to think you're illiterate.

 

[JRP3]

Increases the value of Free Unlimited Supercharging referral program and shifts some demand from Model 3 to Model S

I don't think a few cents per kwh is going to move someone upscale to the Model S.

Also Tesla announced they produced 300,000 vehicles back in Feb Tesla confirms having produced its 300,000th electric car

 

[elasalle]

Please point to where I said fb was ALL stupid? I said I don't want to listen to stupid, so I don't frequent any social media. I'm not willing to wade through knee deep BS to get the one occasional nugget.

Read clearly before responding to posts and don't twist words/meanings else people might start to think you're illiterate.

Your words .. "I don't do Twitter, I don't do fb, I don't do redit. Why? Because I don't care what stupid thinks."
- I think we have one professor in TMC, not sure if he is English though

It's too my advantage if people (who don't know me) think I don't know what i am doing, am illiterate, am stupid etc etc. - so I don't care,

time to move on, last comments on this ..

Edit: SP up $10, that's what counts

 

[ggr]

Attached a very insightful technical explanation why the Model 3 Motor is a complete new design and development outpacing even their older Motor for S and X with a 6% efficiency increase combined with lower costs.

Another key element that makes Tesla the company with superior technology. I remember all other automakers saying ever since that Tesla is using the same Motors which is now proven to be wrong.

Cudos to the Greece Engineering!

Tesla Model 3 Motor — Everything I've Been Able To Learn About It (Welcome To The Machine) | CleanTechnica

I feel like pointing out that I started a thread on switched reluctance motors nearly three years ago... see, I'm not a just a novice tyrant.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I don't think a few cents per kwh is going to move someone upscale to the Model S.

Also Tesla announced they produced 300,000 vehicles back in Feb Tesla confirms having produced its 300,000th electric car

Thanks for the link.

I agree that there will not be a wave of Model 3 reservation owners opting for Model S instead. Having said that, any slight adjustments like this one add up to incrementally affect demand balance between a fully loaded Model 3 Long Range and a base Model S, if those potential buyers were already considering both vehicles. In addition, I expect gasoline prices to significantly rise throughout 2018 summer driving season, which could lead to further increases in Supercharger rates. I think the changes at the margin matter.