I see that mmd has been released from their 1 month moderator-imposed hiatus for bad behavior.
mmd has stated that in the past that they are ignoring me (haha!), but their post does merit some discussion with regards to trends in the broader automotive market.
The claim is that Model 3 will replace millions of family sedans like Camry and Accord. So, did Alex visit Disneyland with his family in it?
Did he put 3 car seats in his M3? Did he have passengers in the back for his cross country drive?
The first thing to note is that mid-size sedans as a segment are declining as a percentage of the overall car market. While Camry and Accord sales remain stable, many other models of mid-size sedans are falling by the wayside. You can read about this decline in an extensive series by The Truth About Cars:
midsize sedan death watch Archives - The Truth About Cars
So what are people using to cart their familes to Disneyland? Compact Crossovers and other large, hatched vehicles.
Lets look at Honda' s December 2017 and full year 2017 results:
American Honda Sets 3rd Straight Annual Sales Record with Best-Ever December for Trucks
Model: Dec '17; Total 2017
Honda Accord: 22,115; 322,665
Honda Civic: 31,406; 377,286
Honda Pilot: 18,602; 127,297
Honda CR-V: 36,983; 377,895
Honda HR-V: 7,543; 94,043
Honda Odyssey: 9,874; 100,307
Honda has other models, but these are the most relevant to the discussion.
The first thing to note is that the
Honda CR-V, classified as as Compact Crossover, now handily outsells the Accord, and has reached parity with the Civic. The Honda CR-V is a hardware platform relative of the Civic, and both cars have similar ground dimensional footprints.
Compact Crossovers are replacing Midsize Sedans.
Many younger people start their adult lives with sedans like the Honda Civic, but they often no longer move up to a bigger sedan like Accord when they start to raise families. They are trading in their Civic/Focus/Jetta/Corolla/Impreza for some form of Compact Crossover, like CR-V or Subaru Forester when looking for a road trip car. I've observed that families will often keep 1 sedan for a commuting spouse, and keep 1 crossover for road tripping. Crossovers generally have better rear bench seating positions and space than sedans, and are much easier for bulky items like strollers, suitcases, and sports gear due to the wide opening and space of their rear hatches. The higher seating position is a plus too.
The second thing to note is that the sales of hatched vehicles (Pilot, CR-V, HR-V, and Odyssey) now at least equals the sales of Civic plus Accord. Hatched vehicles likely exceed sedans now, because the Civic is available in hatchback form, and the Fit tilts the balance further.
Sedans have become the new Coupe. Many people buy them for the sexier shape and low-to-ground mass, which generally translates to better cornering. In terms of higher end cars, people buy a sedan because they desire it, not because it is the most practical option. At the low end, people still buy sedans because of lower cost. At the middle, the fact that midsizer sedans have higher cost and lower utility than CUVs means that they get squeezed out.
What does this mean for Model 3?
(1) Back seat comfort for Adults and Teenage children over multi-hundred mile trips is largely irrelevant. People in today's marketplace who need this are looking at a Compact Crossover, not a Sport Sedan. All Model 3 really need to do with regards to larger rear seat occupants is give them enough leg room and comfort for 30 minute hops.
(2) For younger families small children, the back seat should be fine for car seats:
http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-family-car/
What really matters for Tesla in the long run for family cars, is Model Y, the Compact Crossover relative of Model 3.
- Model Y gives Model 3 owners an "upgrade" path. People in the Model 3 demographic may prefer the Y over the X for size and/or cost reasons.
- Model Y gives non-Tesla owners a compelling option if they want a CUV but don't want something as big or expensive as Model X.
There are some serious complaints about back seat comfort for M3. Look at the picture below. If there was an option to remove the back seat and use bean bags instead for sitting, that might be interesting.
The Automobile 2.0: Chevrolet Bolt EV vs Nissan Leaf vs Tesla Model 3 Long Range - Motor Trend
I don't know how tall MT editor Kim Reynolds is (the guy pictured), but elevated leg position is common in a car the size of Model 3. The Honda Civic sedan is 182.8" long, compared with 184.8" for the Tesla Model 3. Both cars have roughly the same cabin and trunk volume.
See Honda Civic rear seat example:
Roomy Interior Means I Can Sit Behind Myself - 2016 Honda Civic Long-Term Road Test
Anyone tall, spending hours sitting in a car that is Civic or Model 3-sized, is going to suffer "road butt".
