General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

If true a major improvement nobody really talked about ...

Just realized Model 3 charges 25% faster (m/hr) due to its higher efficiency driving:) • r/teslamotors

As we have now a group pf former S owners who drive the 3 ( I am jealous ) can you confirm that finding.

Its true but it’s not a breakthrough. The car being lighter (smaller) the same amount of energy gets you more miles than a heavier vehicle like the S. That’s why 75KWh battery in the 3 gives you about as many miles than the 100KWh battery in the S (there are other factors of course but that’s the main one). So when you plug your car home, for the same energy you put in you see more ‘miles/h’ of charge than an heavier vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

Then why put this out? Was it necessary?

Because at the time that’s what he thought they could do. This isn’t hard people. The world at large and everything in it, including Tesla, is not static. Things change continually and craptastic stuff happens in a nanosecond. You don’t get to know all the craptastic details because you can’t handle them most of the time and certainly Wall Street can’t. Like OMG Tesla is going to both explode and implode with the Solar City merge.

Was that tweet necessary? I don’t know, what was the stock price doing before and after it? No, it probably wasn’t anymore necessary than this forum and people wringing their hands and angsting all over themselves, yet again. But here we are with clearly nothing better to do with our time.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla then sells at 7 cent, that is already promissing a 50% margin (even if Tesla would outsource, but on top of that Tesla produces the solar and storage at GF1 and GF2).

Is Tesla planning to make the megachargers completely self-sufficient and not attached to the grid in any way at all?

 

[SPadival]

I am doing something terrible like quoting an SA bear (which I have criticised VA for). But I cannot resist this one time

Montana Skeptic
Jan 4 07:05 PM
Rick Ballard: "How can anyone not have seen enough of Elon Isuzu at this point?"

Heh. And yet we must face facts. Tesla's report yesterday was, objectively viewed, a catastrophe, but the share price needle barely moved.We need to divorce our emotions from our investing. So much easier said than done.

Seriously, If that is not a bear waving a big white flag of abject surrender, I don’t know what is.

 

[Starno]

I think the earnings call next month is going to be the most closely followed

If it's going well, it might be a huge market mover, even with revised production rate.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am doing something terrible like quoting an SA bear (which I have criticised VA for). But I cannot resist this one time



Seriously, If that is not a bear waving a big white flag of abject surrender, I don’t know what is.

Well, there’s someone who doesn’t know what objectively and catastrophe mean but bonus points for spelling them right.

 

[DurandalAI]

Is Tesla planning to make the megachargers completely self-sufficient and not attached to the grid in any way at all?

I would sincerely doubt that. More than likely grid connected to sell into the grid when surplus, maintain the battery to supply the majority of the power, and grid for when battery packs are low. Also allows for low cost off-peak charging of the packs.

 

[scaesare]

1) "Last 7 Working days" translates to somthing like Dec. 18. to Dec. 30. 793 M3s translates to a weekly rate of about 400!!

Why?

 

[bdy0627]

I think the earnings call next month is going to be the most closely followed

If it's going well, it might be a huge market mover, even with revised production rate.

If they do another downward revision at that point, which I do not think they will, I don't think it would go over well at all. My WAG is that a lot of us see this latest guidance as very achievable, and perhaps quite beatable. The stock may trade accordingly sooner rather than later. We'll see.

 

[JRP3]

Seriously, If that is not a bear waving a big white flag of abject surrender, I don’t know what is.

For a while now MS has been saying "Don't short TSLA" in all his TSLA bashing articles.

 

[ggr]

Because at the time that’s what he thought they could do. This isn’t hard people. The world at large and everything in it, including Tesla, is not static. Things change continually and craptastic stuff happens in a nanosecond. You don’t get to know all the craptastic details because you can’t handle them most of the time and certainly Wall Street can’t. Like OMG Tesla is going to both explode and implode with the Solar City merge.

Was that tweet necessary? I don’t know, what was the stock price doing before and after it? No, it probably wasn’t anymore necessary than this forum and people wringing their hands and angsting all over themselves, yet again. But here we are with clearly nothing better to do with our time.

Indeed. "Forward looking statements". He later said he was blindsided by the line problems at the Gigafactory. If he wasn't an optimist he'd never have started SpaceX or invested in Tesla.

 

[Gerardf]

For a while now MS has been saying "Don't short TSLA" in all his TSLA bashing articles.

Yes, but at the bottom of his last article was this line

“Additional disclosure: I recently added to my 1/17/20 TSLA bearish options”


He is smart enough to now realize this week was probably his best opportunity in a long time to see a lower share-price.

 

[Krugerrand]

If they do another downward revision at that point, which I do not think they will, I don't think it would go over well at all. My WAG is that a lot of us see this latest guidance as very achievable, and perhaps quite beatable. The stock may trade accordingly sooner rather than later. We'll see.

What does that mean, not go over very well? Lots of things ‘haven’t gone over very well’ with people dating back to ‘we’ll build a gigafactory.’ World didn’t end. Tesla didn’t end. Who cares about it not going over very well? Ah, yes...because money, the root of all evil.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Something new (to me), apologies if others have already covered this, regarding the tax reform and how it impacts Tesla's cumulative NOL's deferred tax value.

Trump Tax reform to generate additional loses on Tesla, Deutsche Bank is one of the first victims • r/teslamotors

 

[Stratusbill]

Elon will figure out how to mass produce cars. And batteries. That’s a heck of a lot easier than inventing an ev that performs as well as my S. No worries. Now when I have to drive an ice I hate it. In my beemer X5 it really bugs me to be putting on the brakes all the time. And the slow acceleration. And the noise. And the ......

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Then why put this out? Was it necessary?

There are two (2) caveats in that statement:

1. “It looks like” does not equal “it is certain” or “I promise.”

2. “we can” does not equal “we will.”

I agree with you that many of EM’s statements end up being bad PR, and I wish he would make fewer of them. This is the main reason I think the media’s claims of him being a “great salesman” are completely wrong. I don’t ever want him to lose his optimism, but because so many people misunderstand it, I wish he’d show it less in public.

That said: observe the actions, not the words. The actions make me very bullish, but not as bullish as someone who is focused on the words.

 

[Paracelsus]

Finally responded to the Tesla request to configure our Model 3 following some helpful AWD & tax credit advice on this board. After reading the options for the first delivery dates of the $35,000 version ('early' 2018) and the AWD long range version (spring 2018), I was left with the impression that Tesla might be creating an option to deliver the AWD higher-profit version at the same time......or even sooner than the $35,000 at this point. Previously IIRC the AWD version was clearly designated for initial delivery much later than the $35,000 model. And based on their past model of creating the higher-profit vehicles first, why wouldn't they also do this for the Model 3? In the bigger picture advancing the roll-out of the higher-profit AWD version to a time prior to-or even simultaneously with the $35,000 model would significantly increase revenue and would also significantly increase the chance of clearing the profitability bar in Q2.

No wonder MS and other shorts are "crappin' in me jockeys" (as Conner McGregor says). Profitability may only be a dual-drive motor away.....sometime in the Spring of 18'. While I have enjoyed the debates way down in the minutia on this board regarding what the ramp rate might really have been in the last week of 2017, for me the take home message of the Q4 production report was that the line is now running towards profitability and the accelerated Model 3 Configure dates confirm an earlier than anticipated move towards successful implementation and an eventual SP500 listing.............(insert mic-drop for Elon and Team here)

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Indeed. "Forward looking statements". He later said he was blindsided by the line problems at the Gigafactory. If he wasn't an optimist he'd never have started SpaceX or invested in Tesla.

Absolutely agree!

If Elon becomes a regular thinking ICE CEO I’m out of TSLA. If anyone thinks he is going to under promise and over deliver like the average CEO I’m out.

I wouldn’t be 80%+ TSLA if he is easily convinced to change his ways. We are here because Elon is that hard headed on his ways.

Hint: this kind of thinking / over analyzing will get many of you in a trap for Q1 numbers again.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Finally responded to the Tesla request to configure our Model 3 following some helpful AWD & tax credit advice on this board. After reading the options for the first delivery dates of the $35,000 version ('early' 2018) and the AWD long range version (spring 2018), I was left with the impression that Tesla might be creating an option to deliver the AWD higher-profit version at the same time......or even sooner than the $35,000 at this point. Previously IIRC the AWD version was clearly designated for initial delivery much later than the $35,000 model. And based on their past model of creating the higher-profit vehicles first, why wouldn't they also do this for the Model 3? In the bigger picture advancing the roll-out of the higher-profit AWD version to a time prior to-or even simultaneously with the $35,000 model would significantly increase revenue and would also significantly increase the chance of clearing the profitability bar in Q2.

No wonder MS and other shorts are "crappin' in me jockeys" (as Conner McGregor says). Profitability may only be a dual-drive motor away.....sometime in the Spring of 18'. While I have enjoyed the debates way down in the minutia on this board regarding what the ramp rate might really have been in the last week of 2017, for me the take home message of the Q4 production report was that the line is now running towards profitability and the accelerated Model 3 Configure dates confirm an earlier than anticipated move towards successful implementation and an eventual SP500 listing.............(insert mic-drop for Elon and Team here)

Yes, I also wonder if the push-out of 5k/wk from Q1 to Q2 has to do with Tesla re-prioritizing SR and AWD introduction, trying to pull those in, after seeing the customer preference on the invitations they sent out.

Estimate for AWD for me has not changed (1st day online reservation non-owner in CA), still Sep-Nov 2018. Putting that next to your Spring 2018 estimate for AWD, I wonder if that means that there is a long line for AWD.

 

[StapleGun]

I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere but I haven't seen much talk about it. With roughly 160k US deliveries at the end of 2017, if Tesla stays under 40k US deliveries in Q1 (very likely IMO) then the US tax credit phase-out period will be pushed back a month as well. Using something like 20k, 40k, 60k as the Model 3 production numbers the next 3 quarters that would be 60k buyers receiving $3750 more than they otherwise would have. Some number of buyers in Q1-2019 would get $1750 more than otherwise, and another batch in Q3-2019 would see the same benefit.

It also means that the full credit should be available to a good portion of the early reservation holders who are waiting for the $35k version. Those buyers are likely more price sensitive, so I expect this to have a small but positive impact of the reservation holder conversion rate.