General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Lbkmxp100d]

Interesting. Why did they produce less "High margin" MS and MX than last quarter, with demand so stellar? Think they still found a few more "rich enthusiasts", albeit at a lower level.

I may have to start referring g to you as Mr. Short!

 

[Reciprocity]

Yes, not an owner. Do you find your grip on the wheel gets a little tighter as you approach stopped vehicles in your lane or "gore points"?

No I dont. I can tell about 150 meters before the gore point that I am in the wrong lane/not-lane. I actually keep my eyes on the road the whole time, not just was the car is colliding with the barrier.

 

[Waiting4M3]

As an example, the stock moved less than 2% either direction in the week of their Q4 announcement..... As long as it's in the 1500-2300 range, I don't think investors are really going to care.

I'm sticking with my 2% prediction.

LOL

 

[EinSV]

As promised, I reworked my chart on VIN assignments now we have a week more data. The data range is from March 8th till today, 1 day shy of 4 weeks. View attachment 291528

For each day, I graph the maximum VIN assigned that day (green), the minimum VIN assigned (red) and the average of all VINs assigned (blue). In addition I added the trend lines for each series.

The green line (maximum VIN assigned) tells us something about line speed : how fast do model 3s roll of the line. That rate over the given period is from 9400 to 15300, or just over 1500/week. The assumption is that each top VIN represents a car that goes through quality control exceptionally fast and needs no rework. Ie, that car is nearly immediatly after production complete available for customer assignment. R square is .9 or a good fit.

The blue line (average VIN assigned) tells us something about production speed where production includes regular quality control and rework. This rate is from 8000 to 12200 or 1100/week. R square is .85 or a reasonable good fit

The red line (lowest VIN assigned) tells us something about quality control issues. How slow is Tesla in reworking cars that don't pass quality control on the one hand. The spread of this line with the green line tells us if Tesla has sufficient capacity to rework cars as they roll of the line. This rate goes from 6300 to 8500 or just below 600/week. R square is .3 so not really a good fit.

My conclusion : the run up to 2000/week was recently enough that it doesn't yet show in the VIN assignment numbers. Rework and quality control is growing but because production rate is growing as well, it's too early to tell if this is sign of a significant backlog, especially with such a weak trendline.

One reason this method may have missed the 2000/week production this past week is that VIN to delivery time appears to have shrunk for the most recently produced cars, as Tesla focused on delivering those cars in California and on the West Coast at the end of the quarter. Focusing on the average VIN number alone would miss that.

You can see this in the short average VIN to delivery times for the West Coast states where the last minute production was emphasized, and much longer VIN to delivery times in the other states:

CA 8 days
WA 9 days
AZ 9 days
NV 7 days
OR 11 days

All of the other states except MO and UT are in the double digits, including 23, 24, 27 and 30 days. Model 3 Invites #2 (There are two identical files to avoid the 100 users limit) (sorry for some reason can't copy the chart ....)

 

[schonelucht]

One reason this method may have missed the 2000/week production this past week is that VIN to delivery time appears to have shrunk for the most recently produced cars

I don't understand how something that happens after VIN assignment (time to delivery) influences VIN assignment rate. I am probably misunderstanding your point. Can you explain it in some more details with possible ranges (don't have to match actual data, just a simplified example)?

 

[X Yes?]

This is demonstrably false. Tesla produced 22,140 MS/X in Q4 2017, and 24,728 MS/X in Q1 2018. The Q1 # is exactly where Tesla has been for 2017.

From Q1 2018 delivery report:
"Q1 production .... 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3."

From Q4 delivery report:
"Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3"

In case you want to keep digging further into 2017 to support your false narrative that MS/X production is down, here are rest of 2017, Tesla consistently produce ~25K MS/X per quarter. Q4 2017 was a blip down because they pulled people to ramp M3.

"Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model 3."
"Q2 production totaled 25,708 vehicles"
"Q1 production totaled 25,418 vehicles. This was also a new quarterly record for us."

My bad. It's even worse. Delivery numbers were MX 11,730, MS 10,070. Down from yr ago levels and short of consensus estimates. Production did outpace sales, should be many good deals at 10-20K, off as next quarter ends.

 

[EinSV]

I don't understand how something that happens after VIN assignment (time to delivery) influences VIN assignment rate. I am probably misunderstanding your point. Can you explain it in some more details with possible ranges (don't have to match actual data, just a simplified example)?

Sorry, I was focusing on delivery rather than production. I withdraw the comment and plead temporary insanity.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - this morning: Veteran Tech Analyst Aims to Change the Research Game in Tesla and Others

 

[Waiting4M3]

My bad. It's even worse. Delivery numbers were MX 11,730, MS 10,070. Down from yr ago levels and short of consensus estimates. Production did outpace sales, should be many good deals at 10-20K, off as next quarter ends.

Your playbook is so predictable, production > delivery because Tesla sold off ~6000 old inventory (read showroom) cars in Q4, and now they're restocking them. You're not even making me spend any time to research and refute this. It's already been posted all over TMC and everyone know it. Try again.

 

[2virgule5]

1) "Chevy Cruz", nice try changing the topic, high gas price will kill GM SUV sales like in 2008
2) "haven't done the calculations but confidant", well that's a good argument, LOL. BTW at 40mpg, $4/g gas, it's $0.10/mile, still 2x of M3. Here, you're welcome

Who are you talking to?

 

[Bobfitz1]

X Yes? said: ↑
Must be in the back of the mind of all people, using Autopilot. When the system does not alert or steers you straight into barriers, you might think to yourself: "maybe it's best to just pay attention and drive!"

Im pretty sure you dont own a Tesla. Just a guess.

All it takes for an adult to get a test drive in a MS or MX is a driver's license. I guess we can chalk up all the FUD posts to psychosomatic blindness.

 

[Waiting4M3]

My bad. It's even worse. Delivery numbers were MX 11,730, MS 10,070. Down from yr ago levels and short of consensus estimates. Production did outpace sales, should be many good deals at 10-20K, off as next quarter ends.

The difference in MS/X production between 2017 and 2018 Q1 is 690 cars, ~ 2.5 days of production, and everyone already know Tesla took 3/30 this last Friday off. But I gotta give you credit where it's due, that may be your strongest argument today, and finally one post where you did basic math. I know it's rough when you draw the short straw and have to come here to TMC today. And you tried hard. So kudos

 

[Waiting4M3]

Who are you talking to?

I understand that you want to use ignore, but I'm determined not to let trolls get away with it, NOT TODAY, so please feel free to skip past my posts.

 

[elasalle]

James Albertine (in the video clip)
Tesla’s Model 3 Is Now America’s Best-Selling Electric Car

 

[adiggs]

I understand that you want to use ignore, but I'm determined not to let trolls get away with it, NOT TODAY, so please feel free to skip past my posts.

You can help by replying to the individual posts you're replying to. The quoted comment provides context for others reading your comment, and as best I can tell, replys to people on my Ignore list are themselves ignored. Everybody that isn't ignoring the individual will still see your response, so anybody that might be confused by the FUD will see your counter to it. Everybody that isn't seeing the FUD, won't also see you talking to air

 

[MP3Mike]

The quoted comment provides context for others reading your comment, and as best I can tell, replys to people on my Ignore list are themselves ignored.

That isn't the way it works. Replies to ignored posters are not hidden, but the quoted portion of the ignored person's post is hidden. (Unless you click the little link at the bottom right to show ignored posts.)

BTW: He did quote the person he was replying to.

 

[X Yes?]

X Yes? said: ↑
Must be in the back of the mind of all people, using Autopilot. When the system does not alert or steers you straight into barriers, you might think to yourself: "maybe it's best to just pay attention and drive!"



All it takes for an adult to get a test drive in a MS or MX is a driver's license. I guess we can chalk up all the FUD posts to psychosomatic blindness.

Or Autopilot's psychosomatic blindness...

 

[Stretch2727]

The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. ... Interesting

Can anyone shed some light on how accurate this is? Whether big or small company, and regardless of design, and designed capacity .. do all have to go through the same tuning process?

Asking, because if this is correct. Then clearly regardless of all others coming in the rear view mirror, the advantage is gonna be with Tesla for a long time

Not sure if you are asking in general or specific to Model T. All car companies have a ramp on a new model. Avoids building too many cars that may need rework and allows them to add complexity stepwise. No matter how much you test and prototype there are always issues to sort out. The Japanese perfected a model of mixed production where they mix the old with the new and slowly add more new. Avoids loosing revenue and ramp the new model. The ramp slope will depend on the "newness" of the design.. A completely new model may ramp over 6-12 months where a refresh might be a month or 2. Most will hold back the inventory for a sale launch date.

Tesla can make this growth claim as there has not been a new car company in a long time and they are starting from a relatively small base of production.

For perspective here is the Ford Model T ramp. If you put the Model S start in 2012=1909 they are a little behind this, but should catch up with the Model 3. Ford just built one model for this time.

1909 10,666
1910 19,050
1911 34,858
1912 68,773
1913 170,211
1914 202,667
1915 308,162
1916 501,462
1917 735,020
1918 664,076
1919 498,342
1920 941,042

Ford Model T - Wikipedia

 

[2virgule5]

I understand that you want to use ignore, but I'm determined not to let trolls get away with it, NOT TODAY, so please feel free to skip past my posts.

Ok, JUST TODAY is ok with me

 

[adiggs]

That isn't the way it works. Replies to ignored posters are not hidden, but the quoted portion of the ignored person's post is hidden. (Unless you click the little link at the bottom right to show ignored posts.)

BTW: He did quote the person he was replying to.

Ah rats - thanks for the info though. It's helpful to me.