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It makes nearly no difference. There are outliers both ways but they are sufficiently rare that they don't have a big impact on the rate of cars ready for customers. Another way to look at it : the overall chart of VINs assigned is a big cloud. In general, that means median and average won't be too different. The median vs average is important for series like wealth where a large population is middle class but with a few extremely (like several magnitudes more) rich. In VIN talk it would be like if there was a 400 000 VIN assigned today. Anyway, see chart below.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
We're all going to need some of that Tesla premium booze soon, because China is not backing down today. I need to figure out how to short the entire S&P 500 at this point.
no chance.I have one honest question to our resident Care Bears who have been so nice to us all year to warn us about the possibility of this major dip:
Have you covered your TSLA shorts today ?
You know, it is best to quit while you are ahead!
I wouldn't want to see you nice people cry when the SP goes back to north of 300.
So I'm playing the good samaritan and looking out for the good fortune of the shorts: take your profits while you are ahead!
ps: This IS an advice
Started at around $310, wont even think of covering before 100$
The little short squeeze try yesterday is already over again. There will be no more growth in china
As soon as the market realizes that yesterdays report was a catastrophe, tesla will continue downward.
Even former uber-bull Adam Jonas doesnt believe Musks BS about no capital needed and still expects at least a 2,5b raise.
you know... there are thingies that track the S&P.. even with leverage.. and in both directions!! whoa!
Someone needs to come up with a new drink a call it “Bankwupt”
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bambam4171
Member
Runarbt
Active Member
Short glass: Teslaquila, bitter lemon, cranberry juice - symbolize bitter dyslectic shorts who bleed out, still waiting for the promised Bankwupt?
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Anything that has Tesla in it's name belongs to Tesla. I want in. Not for Boring or Personal Sales
DurandalAI
Member
Take my money! Lol. I don’t like Tequila, but you can bet that I will stock this at my house when it is available!
Runarbt
Active Member
#metoo, will buy at least 3 - 2put away as collectors items, and one will use as intended. ;-)
Reciprocity
Active Member
Everyone just got a gift and a great buying opportunity. I would not be surprised to see Tesla announce a deal or a strategy that would get them through the tariff issue unscathed. First off, these are announced tariffs and not tariffs in place. They could very well be a face saving tactic just before real negotiations start. Second, Tesla could redirect every single S/X to China to get them in under the tariffs if it takes some time for them to get enacted. Third, Tesla should already be targeting the US for the bulk of sales starting July 1st due to the phase out of the Fed Tax Credits (production would start well in advance of that as Tesla bulks up inventory in anticipation).
The HK market just reopened and should offset some losses in China in the very short term. This should all be resolved for Tesla with a factory deal in China or a relaxation of trade war tensions. The points holding up the Tesla factory are the same being fought over in the "trade war". To be clear, a trade war would benefit no one, but could eventually end up benefiting Tesla more then almost anyone. I think the timing of this issue could have been better.. if it was say in 2 months instead of today, I would have zero concern. With Tesla trying to divert some of its demand to all places outside the US (to delay 200,000th US delivery), having China as an option would have been preferable, but not a killer. I think last year, China was 17% of sales, but with Model 3, China is going to shrink closer to 12% as the Model 3 ramps. Lets not forget that Tesla just sent a giant shipload to China a few weeks back. They should get into customers hands before any tariffs are enacted.
Lets do some quick math. We are talking about 2/3rds of a quarter here so 2 months. Tesla delivers 100,000 S/X a year. 17% of that, divided by 12 months is 1417ish cars. So Tesla would need to find a home for about 2800 S/X minus whatever they can get in under the tariffs over the next couple of weeks. Remember that the theory is that Tesla would be redirecting Q2 deliveries outside the US, but by July 1st, they would want to have a full inventory of US cars to hammer through the final 2 full Qtrs of $7500 Fed credits in the US. Can Europe and HK take on these orders. We know that Teslas can now be sold in Germany with incentives but we lost Canada recently for S/X. Is the Saudi prince going to buy 2000 Tesla's this week when he meets with Elon? It is a lot of Vehicles to redirect but hopefully, Tesla will have already stuffed the Chinese market with the recent shipments and hopefully those cars are in under the wire.
The HK market just reopened and should offset some losses in China in the very short term. This should all be resolved for Tesla with a factory deal in China or a relaxation of trade war tensions. The points holding up the Tesla factory are the same being fought over in the "trade war". To be clear, a trade war would benefit no one, but could eventually end up benefiting Tesla more then almost anyone. I think the timing of this issue could have been better.. if it was say in 2 months instead of today, I would have zero concern. With Tesla trying to divert some of its demand to all places outside the US (to delay 200,000th US delivery), having China as an option would have been preferable, but not a killer. I think last year, China was 17% of sales, but with Model 3, China is going to shrink closer to 12% as the Model 3 ramps. Lets not forget that Tesla just sent a giant shipload to China a few weeks back. They should get into customers hands before any tariffs are enacted.
Lets do some quick math. We are talking about 2/3rds of a quarter here so 2 months. Tesla delivers 100,000 S/X a year. 17% of that, divided by 12 months is 1417ish cars. So Tesla would need to find a home for about 2800 S/X minus whatever they can get in under the tariffs over the next couple of weeks. Remember that the theory is that Tesla would be redirecting Q2 deliveries outside the US, but by July 1st, they would want to have a full inventory of US cars to hammer through the final 2 full Qtrs of $7500 Fed credits in the US. Can Europe and HK take on these orders. We know that Teslas can now be sold in Germany with incentives but we lost Canada recently for S/X. Is the Saudi prince going to buy 2000 Tesla's this week when he meets with Elon? It is a lot of Vehicles to redirect but hopefully, Tesla will have already stuffed the Chinese market with the recent shipments and hopefully those cars are in under the wire.
larmor
Active Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Dont ask me, I would have assumed it would have already been announced. Certainly, this gums up the works. The last word from Elon was the tweet storm where he complained about IP transfer and import duties. But at the end of that tweet storm, he noted that they were working with the government of China on a solution and that they were open to negotiation. I would have to assume that this puts any of that on hold. To me, that is more of a 2020 issue then a 2018/2019 issue. The reason being that Tesla will soon be focused on US deliveries over all, and in 2019, it will be more about model 3 outside the US by which time this whole tariff hoopla will be over. Tesla needs a Model 3/Y plant in China once that kicks into high gear. We are a ways a way from full bore production of Model Ys in China.
larmor
Active Member
There wasn't much info or inkling about a semi or imminent updated roadster announcement but clearly those products even on a demo level take 1-2 years to make. So maybe it is happening since there were earlier reports that Chinese market for Tesla would be significant.
Electrek - this morning: First Tesla Model 3 vehicles arrive in China and Dubai
EDIT: These are used cars.
EDIT: These are used cars.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
Unfortunately these are imported second hand US Model 3's. The title had me going for 5 seconds until I read it.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
#me3, I'll buy 10 bottles, one for every time Elon gets a pay day
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