General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

All the things Xi talked about will happen rather quickly.

I heard the EV factory ownership rule (50:50 joint venture) will be removed this year. But ICE factory ownership rule will remove in 2022. This is great news for Tesla. They announced this change just one week after Xi talked about it.

I am not trying to encourage short-term speculation. This ownership rule change is a huge deal for Tesla.

Edit:
Producing EVs outside then sell in China has these disadvantages:
1. 25% tariff
2. shipping cost
3. Not qualified for any EV incentives from Chinese government
4. Higher production cost
5. Longer turnover time

Now all the disadvantage will disappear.

If Tesla just ship finished cars to China (without wheels), then install wheels in China, will that be considered production in China? Many years ago BMW did this at the beginning and was accepted.

 

[brian45011]

I heard the EV factory ownership rule (50:50 joint venture) will be removed this year. But ICE factory ownership rule will remove in 2022. This is great news for Tesla. They announced this change just one week after Xi talked about it.

I am not trying to encourage short-term speculation. This ownership rule change is a huge deal for Tesla.

What will be the source of funds to build a wholly owned factory in Shanghai?

 

[Yggdrasill]

How nuts would you have to be to build a *new* ICE vehicle factory in 2022? I'm thinking pretty nuts.

 

[TradingInvest]

How nuts would you have to be to build a *new* ICE vehicle factory in 2022? I'm thinking pretty nuts.

Yes. That's the point. Basically China relaxed the rule only for EV.

 

[mongo]

Interesting that commercial opening starts in 2020 and personal vehicle production opens in 2022. Tesla could build the semi or another truck plant in 2020, but not a model 3 or Y until 2022.

BEV/PHEV are 2018, Y and Semi are covered now,
Non-BEV/PHEV Commercial is 2020
Non-BEV/PHEV Passenger is 2022

From Reuters:

The country will remove foreign ownership caps on companies making fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2018, for makers of commercial vehicles in 2020 and the wider car market by 2022, China’s state planner said in a statement.

 

[j0hn]

i wonder when they will drop the coast to coast bombshell as it is way overdue...

Right about now would be fine with me elon

 

[Starno]

i wonder when they will drop the coast to coast bombshell as it is way overdue...

Right about now would be fine with me elon

I wouldn't expect before September-October. But it's possible

 

[Curt Renz]

Interesting that commercial opening starts in 2020 and personal vehicle production opens in 2022. Tesla could build the semi or another truck plant in 2020, but not a model 3 or Y until 2022.

Electric cars like Tesla's in 2018.

From this morning's Quartz article:

China’s state policy planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced that that the country will scrap foreign investment limits for car manufacturing, beginning with new energy vehicles this year, a category that includes both hybrid and fully battery-run vehicles.

Quartz article: China just rolled out the welcome mat for Tesla

 

[kelevra]

bloomberg just said that the shut down was to soften the impact of a supplier bottleneck (and meanwhile updating automation) but never know what their source is. nobody else reported that.

 

[anon]

bloomberg just said that the shut down was to soften the impact of a supplier bottleneck (and meanwhile updating automation) but never know what their source is. nobody else reported that.

Please can you give a link? I couldn't see anything about a supplier bottleneck in the Bloomberg article I read, so there must be a different one that I couldn't find.

 

[larmor]

In reply to the flood of articles being posted on investor pages, Yahoo etc, regarding "shutdown" of model 3 line I will say a few of model 3 line I will say a few things- many analysts said model 3 couldn't even be built so a shutdown of a line that's already running is curious...
If one pays close attention to the assembly it may actually be true that Tesla makes cars with two wheels while ignoring the completion of the assembly, and just taking stop motion pictures...

It is very curious how analysts can make money by just making statements, while tesla is actually making cars, solar cells and battery energy storage products to change the automotive and energy paradigm.

Which product do you think will last into the future: analysts' statements or product that changes the energy and transportation paradigm... Place ur bets...

 

[kelevra]

Please can you give a link? I couldn't see anything about a supplier bottleneck in the Bloomberg article I read, so there must be a different one that I couldn't find.

they talked about it in live tv 5 mins after the open. with this youtube stream you can go back in time:

 

[anon]

they talked about it in live tv 5 mins after the open. with this youtube stream you can go back in time:

Thanks. As it was just a brief headline/comment, hopefully there wasn't much to it and just somebody not understanding what was going on.

 

[EinSV]

bloomberg just said that the shut down was to soften the impact of a supplier bottleneck (and meanwhile updating automation) but never know what their source is. nobody else reported that.

they talked about it in live tv 5 mins after the open. with this youtube stream you can go back in time:

They just refer to Tesla saying that the "4-5 day hiatus will be used to improve automation and ease bottlenecks." There is no mention of suppliers in that segment.

 

[Starno]

11 weeks to get to 5000/w

 

[Krugerrand]

Exactly. Bravo. In other words:

View attachment 294808

Or people could take the high road, have high standards, have high ideals, be responsible for their actions, not play the game and thus demanding a new and better game.

There’s always a choice.

 

[kelevra]

Thanks. As it was just a brief headline/comment, hopefully there wasn't much to it and just somebody not understanding what was going on.

yes but i think it could be plausible because workers allegedly said the shutdown came without warning therefore not longterm planned.
source e.g. Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.
don't know if February shutdown had been announced long before ,though.

On the other hand even bloomberg can sometimes be misleading or maybe not good informed. In this recent video she said that EM said Tesla could make a 3 billion dollar profit as production rises. This may be true (don't know the source) and is certainly plausible (when reaching 500k Model 3) but i don't think it's new information as she presents it. At least i couldn't find the source.
Musk Says Excessive Automation Was ‘My Mistake’

@EinSV quite at the beginning of their reporting they briefly mention it and it's also in the displayed headline at the button.

 

[Waiting4M3]

yes but i think it could be plausible because workers allegedly said the shutdown came without warning therefore not longterm planned.
source e.g. Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.
don't know if February shutdown had been announced long before ,though.

On the other hand even bloomberg can sometimes be misleading or maybe not good informed. In this recent video she said that EM said Tesla could make a 3 billion dollar profit as production rises. This may be true (don't know the source) and is certainly plausible (when reaching 500k Model 3) but i don't think it's new information as she presents it. At least i couldn't find the source.
Musk Says Excessive Automation Was ‘My Mistake’

@EinSV quite at the beginning of their reporting they briefly mention it and it's also in the displayed headline at the button.

Doubt the grunts on the production line will get any advanced notice even if there is a planned shutdown. I'm not reading too much into this "supplier" rumor

 

[Intl Professor]

Oohhh.. Sick Burn. What does Correlation and Causation mean anyway. Its gotta be something pretty bad.

Yes, and she needs the vaccine. There must be a reverse golden rule for those of us who project our faults onto others.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Or people SHOULD take the high road, have high standards, have high ideals, be responsible for their actions, not play the game and thus demanding a new and better game.

There’s always a choice.

I fixed it for you, and here's the ugly truth:

The simple fact is that those with higher incomes have a choice to "not play the game." Most do not.

So once again: don't hate the player, hate the game.

Better yet, change the game.