One additional benefit is that by having the shutdown early in the quarter, production pushes out a week and that could give Tesla flexibility in hitting 200k US cars in July. The note that S and X will be working weekends in June would also align to a Q3 push after hitting 200k in US. Not definite, but gives Tesla more options and flexibility.
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One additional benefit is that by having the shutdown early in the quarter, production pushes out a week and that could give Tesla flexibility in hitting 200k US cars in July. The note that S and X will be working weekends in June would also align to a Q3 push after hitting 200k in US. Not definite, but gives Tesla more options and flexibility.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
IMO a factory very rarely need to shutdown a while line. If you shutdown the line, there is usually some major overhaul of the line itself.
In the case of tool maintenance, the individual tools can be taken offline for a few hours at a time, often there are multiple tools that do the same thing for a particular step, so this just introduces some slow down and buffering, which a good MES system should be able to smooth over. These tool-related downtime would not require the whole line to be down.
Tool installation is usually similar. Spaces are reserved ahead of time, so the line continues to run while the installation and manual runs happen. When the tool is ready for production it will be added to the MES system, and the line will start routing parts to the tool. This also usually happens pretty seamlessly without needing to shutdown the line, usually just have an engineer on standby just to watch it for a while is enough.
Exceptions could be related to unexpected tool installations that require the line to be reconfigured. This seems unlikely to be related to AWD, since Tesla must've planned out where the AWD-related tools would go. Tesla may have discovered some other bottleneck that can not be overcome without adding new tools. But if it was discovered before the Feb shutdown, they would've reserved the space during Feb shutdown already. If they just discovered it in March, then the timing seems to be too short to have ordered the new tools and received it so quickly. Usually industrial equipment takes 3+ months to order to build.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Using this to push 200k out seems unlikely, 5 days of shutdown at 2k/wk pace is 1500 cars. If they increase the production rate from 2k/wk to 3k/wk after this, the 1500 cars will be made up in 1.5 weeks.
Xi said in his Boao speech that they going to protect the IP. Was his third point if i remember correctly.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Collapses for governments are rare but they do happen.
I strongly doubt CCP statistics are anywhere near accurate, at least by Western standards.
I can point to predictions of environmental collapses that were already supposed to happen but didn't. Doesn't mean man made climate change is not real.
I thought Elon acquitted himself very well in the CBS Morning interview segments broadcast end of last week.
Not a hint of panic over production difficulties or anything else. Just a true leader on the front line with the troops until the job is done. That SP has slid again rather than get a modest bump is curious. I suppose it shows again the shorts, media and WS analysts are going to keep up attacks until 5,000 M3s are produced the last week of June. But not 4,999 nor first week of July.
Not a hint of panic over production difficulties or anything else. Just a true leader on the front line with the troops until the job is done. That SP has slid again rather than get a modest bump is curious. I suppose it shows again the shorts, media and WS analysts are going to keep up attacks until 5,000 M3s are produced the last week of June. But not 4,999 nor first week of July.
If they are planning on ramping up regardless, the earlier they shutdown and setup, the faster they will get to the 5000k/week target. That is true and is counter to the 200k target. However, any cars produced this week would be delivered 100% in Q2. If after the shutdown they begin to ramp production back up, cars produced in mid May could be delayed for delivery in Q3. I don’t believe the 200k limit is the reason for the shutdown, but simply the timing of it gives them more options if they want to use them. Again, this is just a very minor factor. The key goal is still to get to 5000/week. Also the point about weekend work in June for S and X would also indicate some planning had been put in place to boost deliveries in Q3. Otherwise, why not work weekends now to hit Q2 deliveries?
These are just my thoughts. All these things factor in to give Tesla flexibility and options. If the ramp to 5000 is fast, perhaps they consciously decide to deliver the 200k vehicle in Q2. If it doesn’t ramp up as quickly as they want, they have options and flexibility to maximize their benefit.
No one has a perfect crystal ball. I quoted a China expert who asserts the opposite of your starting proposition because
I think it's not beneficial for those of us in the west to imagine the power shifts and conflicts to come are less serious because the Chinese party-state is likely to be overthrown OR that widening prosperity is going to lead to a gradual transition to non authoritarianism. Premier Xi is playing Go or 3D chess, while the U.S political class is playing tic tac toe. Without even advancing to where they can score a tie each round.
You remember that speech and the contents correctly. No timelines were given then IIRC. So, now a timetable has been given for non JV car production but there was no mention of protection of IP. Just 'hoping' IP is included but unfortunately I do not trust the Chinese on this matter.
I would like IP protection being included in any statement.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Many said they the same regarding the Soviet Union. Their leaders are brilliant and don't have to answer to dunces. Our leaders are idiots answering to ignorant rednecks.
I am not going to argue Chinese politics/history ad infinitum on this thread so I will just leave it there.
China does not allow facebook / youtube / twitter for a reason. They are not as vulnerable as Ukraine, Spain, Britain, Turkey,Venezuela,Italy,Check Republic to opinion meddling attacks attempting to support Government overthrows/Brexit/Coups.
I don't think we'll see any USB ports on the Chinese Gigafactory Kuka robots.
Chinese gov't will put in place a chinese equivalent of a Potemkin IP Village. Highest value technologies will continue to be stolen. We all expect Tesla will be better at fending off theft of IP, but it will still happen. Tesla's real moat there will be the blistering pace of innovation Musk will continue to push.
In the Yahoo Finance video below, Rick Newman and Dion Rabouin stretch to great lengths to dismiss the 1) China news (among several distorting tools, the falsehood that EV part doesn't go into effect until 2020 if ever), 2) spin Model 3 pause announcement (~this wouldn't happen at another automaker unless a bomb went off~, sort of walked back some a little later), and 3) reinforce several bear false advertising slogans ("lose money on every car they produce," "they only get money through government money," "no rational reason to be a bull, just Elon worship" and Dion's contribution "Tesla is a greater fool stock"). Rick has been close to Seeking Alpha bear territory in his intensity of spin-all-Tesla-events negatively for at least a year now, and Dion has been off the charts with the gibberish the past couple of weeks.
all of that in 3 1/2 minutes time
Tesla halts Model 3 production line
I wouldn't expect this to be something we can stop from continuing, but, responding constructively is open to us,
Constructive Suggestions for Investor Response to Media Coverage Involving Tesla and Its Products
all of that in 3 1/2 minutes time
Tesla halts Model 3 production line
I wouldn't expect this to be something we can stop from continuing, but, responding constructively is open to us,
Constructive Suggestions for Investor Response to Media Coverage Involving Tesla and Its Products
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Did anyone expect TSLA to go DOWN on the day when China opens door to 100% foreign owned EV factories? That's the point. The stock market is not always rational in short term.
While I have no doubt Tesla will do great in the long run, I found short term predictions frequently can go wrong. In terms of production capacity, Tesla will ramp to 5000 Model 3s a week, can reach 10,000 too. The real risk is in parts supply.
While I have no doubt Tesla will do great in the long run, I found short term predictions frequently can go wrong. In terms of production capacity, Tesla will ramp to 5000 Model 3s a week, can reach 10,000 too. The real risk is in parts supply.
Yes, many of us who follow the stock closely had a feeling it may not be a great day for TSLA like it should. I knew when the M3 line shutdown hit the air yesterday that media outlets would spin it into a bear story. Some have pointed to the Green Day after the announcement last time the line was down for improvements/fixes but if you remember, it was reported after the fact. I think many have a hard time knowing the M3 line is currently down during trading.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes I expect today to be down. China factory is a big deal, but it's too long term. There are plenty of longs who think the PPS will dip again and again during M3 ramp, and willing to sell some trading shares trying to time these dips, the M3 production pause provides just the right whiff of FUD for this.
Something invasive enough to prevent the line running and that takes multiple days to implement. I'm guessing a tear apart of the line to replace (or aprallel) a robotic section with human power or reconfiguration for material delivery.
My guess is that:
- Some machines are added
- Some machines are removed
- Some machines are modified
I doubt they're doing anything with the SW, beyond possibly updating with new already developed SW.
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