General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[DurandalAI]

Or people could take the high road, have high standards, have high ideals, be responsible for their actions, not play the game and thus demanding a new and better game.

There’s always a choice.

I agree completely.
Without players there can be no game, and as you said, people decide whether to play or not.

Just as I choose to make due with what I have until I get my SR Model 3 instead of buying a Chevy Bolt or Volt as a I refuse to support their gas guzzling cars by proxy. I choose not to go to CNBC.com and provide them with as revenue, and I report/block fake news on Twitter whenever possible.

 

[Intl Professor]

Shortly after the economy contracts by more than 2.5%.

Which economy? There's or ours?

 

[Bobfitz1]

Shortly after the economy contracts by more than 2.5%.

Growth rate has ranged between 6 and 14% the past 25 years so likely the Singularity will arrive sooner than the Party-State being overthrown.

 

[Zaxxon]

Click here to support Buy Elon Musk a Couch organized by Ben Sullins

 

[Intl Professor]

I fixed it for you, and here's the ugly truth:

View attachment 294826


The simple fact is that those with higher incomes have a choice to "not play the game." Most do not.

So once again: don't hate the player, hate the game.

Agree, but what is Gini coefficient distribution? We have a lot to worry about.

 

[EinSV]

@EinSV quite at the beginning of their reporting they briefly mention it and it's also in the displayed headline at the button.

Let's be clear -- there is no mention of suppliers in the Bloomberg segment. Period. It's just your speculation.

Tesla already explained the reason for the production halt (improve automation and ease bottlenecks) and it makes sense to me.

 

[anon]

Let's be clear -- there is no mention of suppliers in the Bloomberg segment. Period. It's just your speculation.

Tesla already explained the reason for the production halt (improve automation and ease bottlenecks) and it makes sense to me.

The headline across the bottom of the screen at the beginning of the segment said that the shutdown was due to "supplier bottlenecks". I doubt there was much to it and I think somebody at Bloomberg was probably mis-informed or else their article would have picked up on it, but kelevra certainly didn't imagine it!

 

[Todd Burch]

I like that this shutdown is occurring earlier in the quarter:

1. Stepping up to 5000/wk earlier is better than stepping up to 5000/wk later. It yields more cars built in the quarter.
2. It gives time for Tesla to evaluate the ramp after this change, and iterate again if needed before the end of the quarter to ensure that 5,000/wk is hit.
3. If successful, it will allow Tesla to pass on really good weekly numbers at the Q1 conference call. I think they're going to need to say that they're at least at 3000/wk+ consistently when they have the call to be considered by the market to be on-track.

 

[EinSV]

The headline across the bottom of the screen at the beginning of the segment said that the shutdown was due to "supplier bottlenecks". I doubt there was much to it and I think somebody at Bloomberg was probably mis-informed or else their article would have picked up on it, but kelevra certainly didn't imagine it!

As far as I can tell, the Tesla segment is no longer on the Bloomberg feed but I will take your word that it is on the banner. In any case they mentioned nothing about it during the segment and I have seen nothing to suggest that the reason for the break is anything other than Tesla's stated reason -- to improve automation and fix bottlenecks.

 

[RobStark]

Yes. That's the point. Basically China relaxed the rule only for EV.

It is for all New Energy Vehicles including H2 cars.

Toyota is now free to open their hydrogen FCEV factory in China.

 

[RobStark]

Growth rate has ranged between 6 and 14% the past 25 years so likely the Singularity will arrive sooner than the Party-State being overthrown.

That is if you believe the CCP and their propaganda machine.

China may be entering the Middle Income Country trap.

No longer just enjoying growth by importing tech and leveraging extremely low wages.

 

[RobStark]

Which economy? There's or ours?

We already suffered a 2.8% contraction during the Great Recession. So obviously theirs.

 

[kelevra]

As far as I can tell, the Tesla segment is no longer on the Bloomberg feed but I will take your word that it is on the banner. In any case they mentioned nothing about it during the segment and I have seen nothing to suggest that the reason for the break is anything other than Tesla's stated reason -- to improve automation and fix bottlenecks.

you can still look it up by yourself on bloombergs youtube stream which allows you to go back in time as much as 4 hours.

 

[dc_h]

yes but i think it could be plausible because workers allegedly said the shutdown came without warning therefore not longterm planned.
source e.g. Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.
don't know if February shutdown had been announced long before ,though.

On the other hand even bloomberg can sometimes be misleading or maybe not good informed. In this recent video she said that EM said Tesla could make a 3 billion dollar profit as production rises. This may be true (don't know the source) and is certainly plausible (when reaching 500k Model 3) but i don't think it's new information as she presents it. At least i couldn't find the source.
Musk Says Excessive Automation Was ‘My Mistake’

@EinSV quite at the beginning of their reporting they briefly mention it and it's also in the displayed headline at the button.

I’m guessing as soon as he said excessive automation everything clicked and the plan to fix the processes started coming together. Recognizing a problem is halfway to solving.

 

[elasalle]

I’m guessing as soon as he said excessive automation everything clicked and the plan to fix the processes started coming together. Recognizing a problem is halfway to solving.

excessive automation might already be issue of past, because in the same interview he did mention that they ripped out their complicated conveyor belts.

IMHO, the fixes now are not radical, but rather improvements to current systems ...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yahoo finance is not 100% negative today, Lora and ass. must've taken the day off also due to the M3 production pause

 

[dc_h]

excessive automation might already be issue of past, because in the same interview he did mention that they ripped out their complicated conveyor belts.

IMHO, the fixes now are not radical, but rather improvements to current systems ...

I wonder why they don’t just run dual 10 hour shifts during early ramp and have 3 days every week to update the line. Avoid shutdowns and increase iterative updates.

 

[mongo]

I wonder why they don’t just run dual 10 hour shifts during early ramp and have 3 days every week to update the line. Avoid shutdowns and increase iterative updates.

I thought the people were on 4 12s then 3 off, 3 12s then 4 off, and the plant was 24/7...

 

[Bobfitz1]

That is if you believe the CCP and their propaganda machine.
China may be entering the Middle Income Country trap.
No longer just enjoying growth by importing tech and leveraging extremely low wages.

I try to avoid believing either the CCP and it's propaganda machine or our current government's propaganda machine. While CCP could skew the reported economic growth rates, I doubt true rates differ greatly from what they report. A chart showing the rate over past 30 years shows it has not dropped below 6% the past 25.

"When Will China's Government Collapse?" 2015. Presents the views of four China scholars.
When Will China's Government Collapse?

Arthur Kroeber, Editor China Economic Quarterly, who lives in China writes:
"Finally, there is no evidence that the biggest and most important political constituency in China — the rising urban bourgeoisie — has much interest in changing the system. In my conversations with members of this class, I hear many complaints, but more generally a satisfaction with the material progress China has made in the last two decades. Except for a tiny group of brave dissidents, this group in general displays little interest in political reform and none in democracy."
And,
"Predictions of Chinese political collapse have a long and futile history. Their persistent failure stems from a basic conceptual fault. Instead of facing the Chinese system on its own terms and understanding why it works — which could create insights into why it might stop working — critics judge the system against what they would like it to be, and find it wanting. This embeds an assumption of fragility that makes every societal problem look like an existential crisis. As a long-term resident of China, I would love the government to become more open, pluralistic and tolerant of creativity. That it refuses to do so is disappointing to me and many others, but offers no grounds for a judgment of its weakness."

 

[TradingInvest]

I heard the EV factory ownership rule (50:50 joint venture) will be removed this year. But ICE factory ownership rule will remove in 2022. This is great news for Tesla. They announced this change just one week after Xi talked about it.

I am not trying to encourage short-term speculation. This ownership rule change is a huge deal for Tesla.

Edit:
Producing EVs outside then sell in China has these disadvantages:
1. 25% tariff
2. shipping cost
3. Not qualified for any EV incentives from Chinese government
4. Higher production cost
5. Longer turnover time

Now all the disadvantage will disappear.

If Tesla just ship finished cars to China (without wheels), then install wheels in China, will that be considered production in China? Many years ago BMW did this at the beginning and was accepted.

This is another indication that if Elon want's to get something done, he will get it done. He wanted 100% owned factory, not 50/50 joint venture. He probably did other things behind the scene to make this happen quickly. Imagine the opposition from Chinese carmakers. The 100% factory ownership in China is critical for achieving the trillion dollar market cap down the road.

Also, I believe it's technically significant that the stock had to touch 284~282 (accomplished today) for it to move forward.