General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

Elon was the one who said they put too much new tech in the Model 3 at once.

I may have missed something, but, I haven’t heard that myself. What I did hear was Elon saying too much automation at once in the machine (production equipment) that builds the (Model 3) machine. Yes, another example of trying to do too much too fast, but, I do see it as some amount of learning from the X experience reflected in what they did with the design of the 3 itself. So, some learning after the X, but wasn’t generalized so much to the production process. I think we’re well aware that pushing the envelope is a well developed tendency with Elon.

Fortunately, we got commentary from Elon not too long ago that others at Tesla had persuaded him to dial back ambitions re automating the Model Y production process (I think this happened even before 3 production ramp got rough).

 

[Starno]

I may have missed something, but, I haven’t heard that myself. What I did hear was Elon saying too much automation at once in the machine (production equipment) that builds the (Model 3) machine. Yes, another example of trying to do too much too fast, but, I do see it as some amount of learning from the X experience reflected in what they did with the design of the 3 itself. So, some learning after the X, but wasn’t generalized so much to the production process. I think we’re well aware that pushing the envelope is a well developed tendency with Elon.

Fortunately, we got commentary from Elon not too long ago that others at Tesla had persuaded him to dial back ambitions re automating the Model Y production process (I think this happened even before 3 production ramp got rough).

At 2:19

 

[gtrplyr1]

Starting to see more Model3s on the highways here in Southern CA ..... the best advertising possible! Followed one for about 20 miles earlier today ... enjoyed seeing it in action. The only think I didn't like was the shade of red .... which isn't any problem for me since mine will be Blue with White interior

Tesla will eventually get to 5K sooner rather than later .... an extra 3-6months means little to real investors.

 

[SteveG3]

At 2:19

thanks Starno, somehow I didn’t get that bit last week.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Starting to see more Model3s on the highways here in Southern CA ..... the best advertising possible! Followed one for about 20 miles earlier today ... enjoyed seeing it in action. The only think I didn't like was the shade of red .... which isn't any problem for me since mine will be Blue with White interior

Tesla will eventually get to 5K sooner rather than later .... an extra 3-6months means little to real investors.

Saw 3 M3s this morning (south SF Bay area), one of them is a blue with sports wheel with VIN 18175.

 

[dc_h]

Starting to see more Model3s on the highways here in Southern CA ..... the best advertising possible! Followed one for about 20 miles earlier today ... enjoyed seeing it in action. The only think I didn't like was the shade of red .... which isn't any problem for me since mine will be Blue with White interior

Tesla will eventually get to 5K sooner rather than later .... an extra 3-6months means little to real investors.

I think at least 4000end of Q2 they need to get to 5000fast, not for stock pric, they need cash flow to fund the semi, Roadster and Y. I think Elon is going to be more Tesla time then normal until they are past 6000 and have a path to 10,000. It’s not stock price, it’s cashflow.

 

[MacRocket]

Is it just my imagination or has there been a major increase in the number of negative Tesla news articles ?

Is this the big end of town getting even more desperate and worried than they already were?

Love to hear everyone’s views on this

 

[srius]

It's surprising that there are no analyses on how accurate Elon/Tesla's future projections by correlating accuracy with certainties of Elon/Tesla's original wordings and how far away a projection was made. Maybe the original wordings were lost in today's free twisting news reports that turn every projection into a promise. Or it could be the fact that more that just these two parameters are required to have a good model in predicting accuracy of a projection.

There was a post yesterday that touched this subject by pointing out that Elon's twit on profitable Q3 and Q4 was unusually certain. I couldn't locate the post. But I have noticed the certainty too. The last time I remember that Elon stated something so certain is in a conference call (?2q17) that he said something like "There is no way that Tesla will not produce in the rate of 500k/year by the end of 2018." The odds at this point is quite low for this projection to come true. But giving the context on how blindsided Elon was by the battery module automation and how long it takes to fix that automation, we can see how he was so certain with that statement.

Now given the context that how close this profitability projection was made and the likelihood of how well Tesla understands fixes and remaining issues of the M3 production, the odds is usual high for this profitable Q3&Q4 projection. The caveat is that Tesla could fall short of 5,000/wk by the end of this quarter and still has a very profitable Q3.

 

[defc0n]

Why?

I believe Tesla is still under contract with Panasonic to purchase the 18650s for the foreseeable future. I don’t know when that contract obligation will end.

I also believe Elon talked about not wanting to spend money for the Model S/X to use 2170s at this time and to just focus on model 3 in the last earnings call.

 

[JRP3]

Is it just my imagination or has there been a major increase in the number of negative Tesla news articles ?

Is this the big end of town getting even more desperate and worried than they already were?

Love to hear everyone’s views on this

Agree, the volume of negativity seems higher than ever before. Even formerly neutral writers, (Dana Hull for example), are skewing negative.

 

[RobStark]

I believe Tesla is still under contract with Panasonic to purchase the 18650s for the foreseeable future. I don’t know when that contract obligation will end.

I also believe Elon talked about not wanting to spend money for the Model S/X to use 2170s at this time and to just focus on model 3 in the last earnings call.

Panasonic to Supply Tesla With 2 Billion Lithium-Ion Battery Cells From 2014 to 2017


I am sure we will see Panasonic Japan switch to 2170 not too long after GF and Fremont are producing 10k Model 3s per week on a steady drama free pace.

 

[AZRI11]

Volkswagen and UAW are in conflict over skilled trade workers vote to unionize in Tennessee. NLRB has put in limbo. UAW and Volkswagen have same interests in Tesla failing. Could this be part of negotiation. Make Tesla look like a failure and we recognize union vote. I know it's a conspiracy theory, but not to far out of the realm.

 

[AZRI11]

Didn't know until today that the conveyance system ar Fremont was built a level below the assembly line, carries parts from a warehouse to the point of assembly. Ironic that GM failed to learn from Toyota at same shared plant, and Tesla followed suit. At least Elon learned from his mistake.
Musk Thinks Tesla Will School Toyota On Lean Manufacturing; Fixing Model 3 Launch Would Be A Start

 

[avoigt]

I have been these days in the NL and its pretty amazing how often you see Teslas...

With 18% market share and holding #1 and 3 in Sales in March I expect them to outpace the competition even further. Remarkable that the MS sales almost as good as the 5 Series. That is telling!

Tesla Model S & BMW 5 Series Neck & Neck In Netherlands (March Electric Car Sales Report) | CleanTechnica

 

[Teslie]

They are going to change the very favourable tax terms for EV cars soon in NL (2019 ?). Then the situation will change towards a level field for ice cars.

 

[scaesare]

I believe Tesla is still under contract with Panasonic to purchase the 18650s for the foreseeable future. I don’t know when that contract obligation will end.

I also believe Elon talked about not wanting to spend money for the Model S/X to use 2170s at this time and to just focus on model 3 in the last earnings call.

I meant why are you concerned if the S & X don't transition to 2170s?

 

[sdtslafan]

They are going to change the very favourable tax terms for EV cars soon in NL (2019 ?). Then the situation will change towards a level field for ice cars.

Level field?

Maybe they can also cut the price of gas by 80%, subtract 2 seconds from the 0-60 time of ICE vehicles, offer free oil changes, lifetime drive train warrantee for ICE vehicles, free gas on long distance trips, and subsidize maintenance costs and then maybe the field will be level

But still probably not...ICE can't compete with Tesla, I've had Mercedes, Audis, etc, they are all left in the dust by my model S.

maybe they can offer a free tesla with purchase of an ICE vehicle, then totally level playing field!!

 

[NicoV]

They are going to change the very favourable tax terms for EV cars soon in NL (2019 ?). Then the situation will change towards a level field for ice cars.

It’s only a level field with a sufficiently high carbon tax.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Dyson Abandons Solid-State Battery Patents

 

[Starno]

Dyson Abandons Solid-State Battery Patents

This industry is the worst if you're looking to make a quick buck.

That's why I'm not worried at all about competition.