General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

I'm on the same page as you. That was embarrassing. If he didn't want to answer boring questions then it would have been better for just Deepak and JB to have done the CC and Elon could have done a 1 on 1 special interview with Galieo and everyone could have been happy.

It was embarrassing, and I'm still not sure how I feel about it. But I have a hard time getting too worked up. They were getting questions that Tesla and Musk have said time and time again they weren't going to answer dating back numerous conference calls. These analysts continue to ask them, wasting everyone's time (and time on these calls is painfully limited). I'm not surprised Musk finally decided to nuke the call from orbit, especially given that he had a convenient out this time around in the HyperChange guy.

Elon pissed off a lot of big names today, but that's kind of his MO. This is not the first time he's said that if you're in it for the short term and you aren't a fan of volatility, GTFO.

Frankly I'd be happy if future calls were largely journalists and retail investors. We'd certainly get far more interesting questions...

Now back to incessantly refreshing my account hoping for a VIN...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Browsing between here and some bear oriented communities, this call changed nothing.

Tesla proponents are happy that Elon pulled the rug out from under analysts on the call and refused to abet their bs. Tesla detractors are saying that Elon is losing it.

The next 6 months will be interesting.

 

[Zaxxon]

Browsing between here and some bear oriented communities, this call changed nothing.

The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called the Third Age by some, an Age yet to come, an Age long past, a conference call took place in the land of California. The call was not the beginning. There are neither beginnings nor endings to the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning.

 

[JRP3]

Could you explain that a little more? Why is someone like Elon less likely to go crazy than other geniuses in history?

Elon is much more grounded in the practical applications of technology and the potential thereof to improve the human condition. Tesla was more interested in knowledge and discovery for it's own sake. From my armchair psychologist perspective Elon is a more stable personality.

 

[JRP3]

Elon:

These questions are so dry, they're killing me

 

[Ugliest1]

Since gas prices are going back up, I'll be saving around $1,700 per year without solar....I love thinking about that!

In support of your happiness, I'm without solar as well... and I've been saving a minimum of $1,700 per year for the last four years: approximate annual cost of gas before Model s: >$2,000. Cost of electricity annually since 2014: <$300.

Ummmm... this doesn't include how much more fun driving is, now, either. I love thinking about THAT even more!

 

[TradingInvest]

I planned to add shares after QR. Shorts can do whatever, I will be adding at a pace with free cash. As I mentioned before, I don't try to predict near term moves. There are lots of unknowns, and so many parties are trying to manipulate the market. I don't want to play their game.

Instead I value the business, make a plan, then act according to my plan. To me TSLA is a buy and hold. I appreciate the volatility that shorts help to create. They will pay for it down the road.

 

[CaliBear1]

Overall, I'm very pleased with the ER and the CC.

Now I love Captain Kirk, but for the purposes of this metaphor, he's the SHORTS and the Tribbles are the Model 3s multiplying like crazy and and about to fall on their heads!

 

[RobStark]

Does anybody believe that Elon dropping an analyst from a call means their bank will forgo 10s or 100s of millions of dollars in fees if Tesla opts for a capital raise in the future?

 

[TradingInvest]

Could you explain that a little more? Why is someone like Elon less likely to go crazy than other geniuses in history?

The way you think is incorrect. This will hurt your investment if you don't fix it.

Anyone has a chance to go crazy, it's all about probability. For a person to go crazy in a 10 year span probably is around 1 out of 10,000. Don't let small probability events to deter your investment.

 

[Yuri_G]

Elon sounded tired of the media/analysts/same old, same old. I think he's riled up and is confident production can meet expectations in the coming quarters. Shorts keep shorting because all the longs know what happens when Elon gets confident, and I need more shares.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

I planned to add shares after QR. Shorts can do whatever, I will be adding at a pace with free cash. As I mentioned before, I don't try to predict near term moves. There are lots of unknowns, and so many parties are trying to manipulate the market. I don't want to play their game.

Instead I value the business, make a plan, then act according to my plan. To me TSLA is a buy and hold. I appreciate the volatility that shorts help to create. They will pay for it down the road.

Agreed! I’m buying both shares and LEAPS at market open tomorrow morning. It obvious to me that Tesla is turning the corner and getting very close to cash flow positive. At that point it’s a $500 stock. I have same belief as Elon. If you can’t handle to volatility then don’t buy.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

did everyone miss the fact that semi will be 500 miles range @ ~80% SOC?? if that isn't revealing i dont know what is and its their next biggest thing coming out in just ~1 year time. this is huge. the implication is that charging semi to 500 miles can be done at max charge rate. i'm feeling the same as when he announced roadster v2 will have 600 miles range and 1.9 0-60 (mind blown out of my skull is the term i believe ).

 

[ClownMouth]

Today's analyst questions were not so different quality-wise from past calls. Elon is active on Twitter and has a pretty good idea of who is on Tesla's side and who is not. He could have decided to only take YouTube/Twitter/individual investor calls ahead of time rather than the way he dismissed the analysts today. I think a lot of good information came out of the back half of that call and I'll be adding over the coming days but I don't think loving Elon/Tesla excuses today's behavior. Yesterday's Marketwatch article regarding a COO was unpopular but man was it timely - the only thing stopping JB from taking most of the questions with Elon adding color is Elon.

The bright side of this forum basically giving Elon a free pass on anything he does all the time is that is reinforces that longs aren't selling. Shorts should fear the reaction on this board more than any information that came out of the investor letter.

 

[SteveG3]

thx do you remember which calls? I vaguely remember maybe Q3 2016 when sentiment was also bad.



i don't care so much about the headlines and would even like to see the SP drop so i can buy more cheaply but of course only as long as i can stay confident. (i guess i still am)
may biggest longterm concern with Tesla is actually that Elon cloud collapse or become crazy at one point because he works so much and there is a fine line between genius and insanity. just look at the original Nikola Tesla for example. Therefore it concerns me when he sounds tired or doesn't want to answer questions. Do you think this concern is far off? Any arguments that can ease me?

To me, for the first ten minutes of the call he sounded calm, in good spirits, on point, and well rested. Later in the call I got the sense that he's felt as much of a reaction to various false narratives at firehose intensity being directed at Tesla and its products as many of us here. I like seeing that in some sense, but, it does concern me a little to. a little.

 

[JRP3]

Today's analyst questions were not so different quality-wise from past calls. Elon is active on Twitter and has a pretty good idea of who is on Tesla's side and who is not. He could have decided to only take YouTube/Twitter/individual investor calls ahead of time rather than the way he dismissed the analysts today. I think a lot of good information came out of the back half of that call and I'll be adding over the coming days but I don't think loving Elon/Tesla excuses today's behavior.

It has nothing to do with "loving Elon" and everything to do with not suffering fools lightly. Quite simply Elon delivered the Dim Mak to a number of industries on this call, including traditional "analysts". Anyone not understanding the brilliance of this call should not be investing in TSLA, nor shorting it. I expect the "market" to misunderstand it as usual. Good.

 

[Waiting4M3]

More thoughts on the defiant Elon, I think some recent development lead to this new Elon:

• Shareholder approving his pay package, he has investor's confidence
• good visibility to Q3/Q4 profitable, he finally has clear path to self-finance Tesla's growth, thus giving Wall-street the finger, possibly with a caveat (#3 below)
  
• China policy change, as other pointed out, the China factory seems to be progressing behind the scene, possibly Tencent can pitch in financially

Short term there could be a few months of volatility as analysts come to grip that they don't matter. I almost see it as Elon effectively taking Tesla "private" with long term investors by telling analysts don't buy the stock if they can't deal with short term volatility. Any short term volatility will just help transfer shares from traders to people who actually want to own Tesla long term. It almost feels like Elon is helping creating volatility in this call....

 

[RobStark]

Another nugget from shareholder letter

"The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1. As a result, even with its battery, the gross weight of Model 3 is on par with its gasoline-powered counterparts."

 

[Mkorpal]

What I really like was reservations holding above 450,000. Despite the company being dragged through the mud, the consumers still want the products. In the end, that matters most.

 

[JRP3]

Another nugget from shareholder letter

"The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1.

I've been making this exact point for a while, nice to see them officially confirming it.