General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SMAlset]

We knew Elon and Tesla would get torn up in the press after today and this is probably the worst account from the market side I've seen in this article: Elon Musk acted like a jerk, and Tesla stock paid the price

 

[MikeC]

From Gene Munster, focusing on facts and not feelings:

Tesla | Loup Ventures

• Tesla reported its Mar-18 quarterly results after the market closed on Wednesday and it’s clear that investors are having trouble seeing the forest through the trees.
• The company maintained its previous target of exiting the Jun-18 quarter at a run rate of 5,000 Model 3s produced per week.
• Shares were trading down about 5% after hours largely due to a comment on the earnings call suggesting a ramp in gross margins on the Model 3 is lagging six months behind target, which needles at the Tesla cash burn topic.
• Focusing on Model 3 near-term gross margins misses the point. The company reiterated that it expects to be GAAP profitable and cash flow positive by year-end, and will not to tap the capital markets for cash.
• Tesla is undergoing cost-cutting measures and reduced its capex plans for 2018 by 12%, a positive for generating cash.

 

[Waiting4M3]

We knew Elon and Tesla would get torn up after today in the press and this is probably the worst account from the market side I've seen in this article: Elon Musk acted like a jerk, and Tesla stock paid the price

Paying for internet to watch the Tesla quarterly call, $1
Stock value lost the next day, $ thousands
Stock value lost the next year, $0
Watching Elon slapping analysts around, priceless

 

[Waiting4M3]

Meanwhile
VIN 224xx assigned

 

[SMAlset]

Hopefully no one needed to sell some of their Tesla stock tomorrow to pay for their car.

 

[srius]

Downloadable audio of the call, for those that prefer an offline copy.

An offline copy of the conference call is great. Thanks!

 

[Sancho]

My suggestion is don't focus on short term. I don't care about the next 3 or 6 months. Tesla is a long term buy and hold.... I think in the end those buy and hold guys will gain the most.

I respectfully disagree. Based on decades of investing, I believe that medium term investors (buying calls of 3-12 months) gain the most.

Utilizing leverage is an awesome thing. It does require more skill since you need to get the timing right, not just long-term direction. And it definitely is more risky and ulcer inducing.

I believe things are setting up right now for an awesome opportunity for medium term investing in TSLA. A once-in-a-decade opportunity.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Medium term investing is definitely not for everyone. I’m only responding here to someone advising me not to focus on the next 3-6 months.

 

[schonelucht]

Seems I missed some big time drama yesterday on the call and that it went pretty much as I predicted yesterday. Solid letter but then Elon who goes off script in the conference call creating negative sentiment in the market. I think I'll pass on the audio, wait for the transcript and content myself with the shareholder letter for now. If we're down a good number tomorrow I will be a buyer because I actually like Tesla's performance in Q1.

 

[MacRocket]

When Tesla has 2 profitable quarters will they be included in the S&P index?
Does Tesla ask to join S&P or is it the other way around?

This is important as lots of institutional index funds would need to buy tesla if this happened. This may help support the SP.

Looking 10 years out when tsla becomes a $600B company, is there any chance it would be included in the Dow?

 

[WarpedOne]

Is there any chance a 1T complany is not included in the Dow?
What would that say about the Dow?

 

[elasalle]

EM was so bullish that he did not want to deal with bullshit any more

 

[SPadival]

My comments to Gali on Twitter

Fantastic work! This QR call is an important footnote in Tesla’s history and should be a model for other companies on how to handle calls

Some people up the thread did not like the Trump comparison.. how about Bernie then?

Bernie Sanders Is Quietly Building a Digital Media Empire

Bernie learnt his lesson when the networks showed Trump’s empty podium live instead of Bernie’s speeches.

Good to see Elon taking a page out of the Bernie handbook, cutting out middle men and going straight to social media.The median age of a CNN viewer is 60+ !!

 

[Yggdrasill]

Another nugget from shareholder letter

"The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1. As a result, even with its battery, the gross weight of Model 3 is on par with its gasoline-powered counterparts."

I've been making this exact point for a while, nice to see them officially confirming it.

Yeah, me too. Like: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

NMC 811 should have around 175 grams per kWh and NCA has around 125 grams per KWh. But that figure for NCA is starting to get old. It was quite interesting that they expect to get the cobalt-content down to almost nothing. I think we can assume that means under 50 grams per kWh.

 

[mongo]

When Tesla has 2 profitable quarters will they be included in the S&P index?
Does Tesla ask to join S&P or is it the other way around?

This is important as lots of institutional index funds would need to buy tesla if this happened. This may help support the SP.

Looking 10 years out when tsla becomes a $600B company, is there any chance it would be included in the Dow?

Need 4 consecutive quarters to be positive overall and the last to be positive. S&P calls you.

 

[landis]

Need 4 consecutive quarters to be positive overall and the last to be positive. S&P calls you.

So is it just me, or is the 'real company has profits' an oblique reference to past time to be in the S&P?

 

[dc_h]

approx 1250 vehicles just left via ship bound for shanghai , marine traffic shows another car carrier docked as soon as this one left.

Any idea how many ships so far this year? Last year China Tesla doubled sales from 2016. To double again is about 4 billion, or a little more than one ship every other week.

Thanks for the update. Great information.

 

[Starno]

So is it just me, or is the 'real company has profits' an oblique reference to past time to be in the S&P?

The thing is you can't just count on external capital to fund your growth. That's great when there is economic prosperity.And even then it's bad to be dependent on external forces. Especially once there is an economic contraction and investors stop giving out money, and the few who still do, do it in smaller quantity.

Profits allow for internally funded growth.

 

[dc_h]

This

"Consequently, we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany."

Yes, seems like they backed off on the automation front and are doing more manually. They will need to increase automation, and they stated this, to achieve the targeted gross margins going forward.

The next 6 months are all about increasing Model 3 production profitably.

RT

still sounds like a big productivity opportunity in A2. 5000 a week at 17 minutes is up to 8 lines of pack assembly. Getting this under 5 minutes will cut assembly labor down and allow two lines to handle 5000 packs. I’m sure they’ll need two of at least part of the new Grohman system to get to 10,000 a week. This should also save space on the plant floor.
At some point productivity is also a parking and human logistics issue.

 

[dc_h]

This is where we are? Defending Elons actions by comparing him to Trumps public speaking antics and Tesla to what is effectively a dividend yielding utility. I have faith in Elon, I'm very long TSLA, I liked some of the content on its own merits.. But I am surprised my feelings are so far removed from others here. I suppose I should be hopeful that the world will perceive this call as many of you do.

The world won't end, but this CC didnt feel productive.

Both questions might have been intended to feed the bear narrative, but he should just someone else answer if he’s pissed. I’m sure the mute was him saying cut them off and go to YouTube and everyone else saying there will be hell to pay. Tony thought Apple would be caught in a downward pricing spiral to sell iPhones back to the 400 iPhone 3. He’s always wrong about tech and disruption, but a company backed by billions has chosen to employ him for a long time. A deflected answer and implied “you idiot” would probably have been better. That said, Model 3 production, if on track, and profits will win the long term battle.

 

[Reality]

That call was awesome!