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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Re: CAPEX and cost reductions

Will that result in a slowdown of Supercharger deployments plus layoffs?

Economical layoffs with 3026 vacancies?

upload_2018-5-3_15-9-43.png
 
From Gene Munster, focusing on facts and not feelings:

Tesla | Loup Ventures

  • Tesla reported its Mar-18 quarterly results after the market closed on Wednesday and it’s clear that investors are having trouble seeing the forest through the trees.
  • The company maintained its previous target of exiting the Jun-18 quarter at a run rate of 5,000 Model 3s produced per week.
  • Shares were trading down about 5% after hours largely due to a comment on the earnings call suggesting a ramp in gross margins on the Model 3 is lagging six months behind target, which needles at the Tesla cash burn topic.
  • Focusing on Model 3 near-term gross margins misses the point. The company reiterated that it expects to be GAAP profitable and cash flow positive by year-end, and will not to tap the capital markets for cash.
  • Tesla is undergoing cost-cutting measures and reduced its capex plans for 2018 by 12%, a positive for generating cash.

If there is one analyst I fully respect and trust, it is Gene Munster. This trust is based on his 14 years track record on Apple, Tesla, and various stocks. He understands what's important and tells as is.
 
Re: CAPEX and cost reductions

Will that result in a slowdown of Supercharger deployments plus layoffs?

Could mean less Superchargers, but those are ~250k a location (warning: just some number I found on Google), so it would take a lot to move the bottom line significantly.

I think Elon is going spring cleaning on the 3rd party contractors (Jesus at the temple style).
or:
 
Never made a penny following any analyst, and sacanaghi’s coverage of Apple has been
Pathetic, basically always wrong. These bean counters all they do is view the world through
An excel spread sheet and pretend they can figure it out. Elon just dumped them.

As some have mentioned, he must be pretty sure production and profitability
Are within sight so that he can discard them with impunity.
 
Never made a penny following any analyst, and sacanaghi’s coverage of Apple has been
Pathetic, basically always wrong. These bean counters all they do is view the world through
An excel spread sheet and pretend they can figure it out. Elon just dumped them.

As some have mentioned, he must be pretty sure production and profitability
Are within sight so that he can discard them with impunity.

Perhaps the Q1 overhang of $120 million, along with the $169 million in cash flow on accounts receivable, tips the projected balance for Q2?
 
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Reading through the transcript right now, and I don't like it at all. This is typical (but nearly every answer so far has been this way)

Elon Musk said:
There's no question we could have made the Model 3 much easier to produce than we have. Model Y, I think Model Y is going to be a manufacturing revolution. It will be, I think, incredible from a manufacturing standpoint, because we do not want to go through this pain again.
 
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If there is one analyst I fully respect and trust, it is Gene Munster. This trust is based on his 14 years track record on Apple, Tesla, and various stocks. He understands what's important and tells as is.

Agreed, even though for a long time he would ask about his idea of an Apple TV set on every call, always to receive the same answer that Apple does not comment on future products on a financial call.
 
I can't stand "analysts" ... I listened as they predicted the death of Apple for years while I was a long.

Toni Sacconaghi is a PITA .... even with Apple ...

I don't like day traders .... sorry I realize there are many on this forum but I think they have turned WS into a gigantic roulette table. Elon's statement about not caring about them is spot on ... I don't either.

Elon is a visionary who doesn't want to deal with the in's and outs of running a public company.

Elon should NOT have been on that call ..... he should delegate that to someone and he should have been doing something ... anything else.

I totally understand his frustration and frankly got quite a kick out of hearing that .... of course I've lost a LOT of money on paper because of it .... it will come back.

FINALLY ... BOB LUTZ is a F'n moron who should just shut up ... what he knows is how to drive a car company into the ground ... GM should be 6 feet under and if it wasn't for the American people bailing them out they would be. Bob is an out of touch jack ass and CNBC should at the very least have someone on to rebut his statements. He started by saying he agreed with Cramer that they will end up in Chapter 11 ... problem is Cramer NEVER said that.(at least that was pointed out on the air) So much BS spewed by that guy it's incredible. I hope Tesla puts the nail in GM's coffin .... just like Apple did with a host of smug smartphone makers who thought they knew everything.

God Bless Elon ..... he's doing great things and he gets a pass from me to say whatever he wants. (Once again ... skip the CC and go have a nice dinner instead)

Cheers to the longs.....
 
It's actually a great sign that a CEO is not concerned about day Traders and hourly movements and comments.... It shows that the head of the company has a long-term plan with stability.

If they make model 3s and are delayed by a couple months really immaterial because they have shown to use that time to improve the process quality and other metrics.

Meanwhile while no one is looking is stationary battery product which no one in the market seems all too concerned about the hourly production or delivery of. The South Australia project I'm sure caused a lot of heads to turn in utility companies.

Finally a lot of oil companies are starting to invest in renewable energy and they will all need some sort of storage for that energy.

So when the model 3 production catches up all the articles I'm sure are going to just say well we knew it was going to happen now let's move on to the next...
 
Anheuser-Busch orders up to 800 hydrogen-fuelled big rigs

In addition to the size of the Anheuser-busch order, I found this quite interesting

“Nikola said it plans to charge $400,000 on average for its trucks, but tractors can be leased as well. Truck leasing firm Ryder System Inc will be providing the dealer network for sales and service, Nikola said. Ryder did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nikola Chief Executive Officer Trevor Milton said the company plans to build more than 700 hydrogen stations across the United States and Canada by 2028 and the company has nearly $9 billion worth of pre-orders, though its trucks are still in the prototype phase.”



800 trucks, $400,000 expected average pricing for the project (though we don’t know specific pricing for AB’s order), there seems to be something more going on here than what’s in the article.
 
Anheuser-Busch orders up to 800 hydrogen-fuelled big rigs

In addition to the size of the Anheuser-busch order, I found this quite interesting

“Nikola said it plans to charge $400,000 on average for its trucks, but tractors can be leased as well. Truck leasing firm Ryder System Inc will be providing the dealer network for sales and service, Nikola said. Ryder did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nikola Chief Executive Officer Trevor Milton said the company plans to build more than 700 hydrogen stations across the United States and Canada by 2028 and the company has nearly $9 billion worth of pre-orders, though its trucks are still in the prototype phase.”



800 trucks, $400,000 expected average pricing for the project (though we don’t know specific pricing for AB’s order), there seems to be something more going on here than what’s in the article.

So was that the fleet Nikola referred to previously? And, given the recent Tesla Semi visit to AB, a precipitating factor in the lawsuit?
(not directed at you, Steve)
 
I respectfully disagree. Based on decades of investing, I believe that medium term investors (buying calls of 3-12 months) gain the most.

Utilizing leverage is an awesome thing. It does require more skill since you need to get the timing right, not just long-term direction. And it definitely is more risky and ulcer inducing.

I believe things are setting up right now for an awesome opportunity for medium term investing in TSLA. A once-in-a-decade opportunity.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Medium term investing is definitely not for everyone. I’m only responding here to someone advising me not to focus on the next 3-6 months.

I agree with you. If you have mastered the skill to trade well with leverage, you probably should continue. For those who keep getting wrong, I think buy and hold shares without margin is the best.
 
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